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# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1 74 74
2 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1 78 78
3 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4 88 88
4 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 94 94
5 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 95 95
6 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2 101 101
7 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 120 120
8 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 5 136 136
9 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 138 138
10 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 140 140
11 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1 144 144
12 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2 151 151
13 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 154 154
14 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 4 155 155
15 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 156 156
16 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 6 170 170
17 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 5 176 176
18 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 226 226
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1 7 5 6 8 5 8 3 4 3 1 5 3 4 12 74 Patrick Dolan '25
Bella Rabeni '24
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1 1 2 15 2 3 5 8 7 2 13 3 5 7 5 78 Madeleine Rice '24
Caroline Dannacher '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4 11 11 7 1 16 2 10 1 9 4 2 2 11 1 88 Blake Stackpoole '22
Ksenia Lowry-Neufeld '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 2 8 3 10 1 1 1 5 OCS 15 14 1 1 13 94 Ella Withington '22
Brook Wood '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 3 3 2 15 4 4 6 8 17 2 7 12 5 7 95 Thomas Walker '24
Frances Depke '25
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2 10 6 14 4 14 14 7 2 5 3 1 8 3 10 101 John Vail '24
Marcus Adam '23
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 15 9 8 13 6 3 2 9 12 8 16 14 2 3 120 J.J. Smith '24
Emily O'Connell '24
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 5 12 1 11 3 15 11 13 13 7 7 9 10 13 11 136 Jennifer Permenter '25
Lilly Bjerke '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 17 13 10 11 2 9 5 6 1 11 13 9 14 17 138 Camille Mcgriff '22
Anna Mcbride '24
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 5 14 13 6 9 6 9 16 16 5 15 6 12 8 140 Jack Merrill '24
Isabel Dhar '23
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1 14 4 12 RAF 8 16 15 3 4 6 4 15 8 16 144 Gannon Troutman '25
Eileen Mehrkens '25
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2 16 10 1 7 7 7 12 18 14 12 17 18 6 6 151 Amelia Popp '25
Claire Dubois '23
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 4 7 4 12 17 15 16 11 13 14 18 4 10 9 154 Griffin Sisk '23
Rebecca Keller '25
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 4 8 16 9 16 13 10 11 17 11 10 10 11 9 4 155 Seth Rizika '24 [1-10]
Rocco Cappetta '24 [11-14]
Clara Hewson '24 [1-10]
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 18 17 17 14 11 12 4 12 8 9 8 7 17 2 156 Aidan Lane '24
Sophia Duff '24
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 6 6 12 5 5 10 13 18 15 10 18 11 17 16 14 170 Ethan Stoffman '24
Peter Jordan '23
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 5 9 15 16 9 12 17 14 10 6 16 6 13 18 15 176 Aaron Tsuchitori '22
Hannah Davis '24
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 13 18 18 17 18 18 17 14 15 17 12 16 15 18 226 Laura Smith '25
Patrick York '24
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (27 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 11818181818181818181818181818
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 21717171717171717171717171717
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 31616161616161616161616161616
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 41515151515151515151515151515
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 51414141414141414141414141414
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 61313131313131313131313131313
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 188888888888888
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 277777777777777
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 166666666666666
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 21212121212121212121212121212
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 31111111111111111111111111111
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 41010101010101010101010101010
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 599999999999999
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners33333333333333
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers 155555555555555
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers 244444444444444
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers 122222222222222
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers 211111111111111

Conditions — 09/18/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 85%  ·  Pressure 1019.2 hPa

Temperature

71°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 74°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 7.7 kn
Gusts to 18.7 kn
From NW (310°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover79% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1019.2 hPa Rain0.08 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 8 kn · N 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Cornell: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.07 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.16
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.51 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cornell by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at Cornell).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →