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Women's SNETR

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Boston College Boston College Eagles 12–0
2 Brown University Brown University Bears 8–4
3 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 5–7
4 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 5–7
5 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 0–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 22,767 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 27 of 30 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.277 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.56 ± 0.32: an orderly event, more orderly than 95% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Boston College
Eagles		110.07
school +0.25		Colleen O'Brien / Libby Redmond 3.36
Michaela O'Brien / Sophia Hacket 3.27
Caroline Sibilly / Katelyn Mcgauley 3.18		89%12–0 (100%)+1.3
2Brown University
Bears		28.60
school +0.25		Brielle Willoughby / Brianna Ross 3.21
Charlotte Costikyan / Lily Shore 2.61
Katharine Doble / Katherine Majette 2.68 3–3
Laura Hamilton / Katherine Majette 2.34 5–1		61%8–4 (67%)+0.7
3U. S. Coast Guard Academy
Bears		47.54Emily Bornarth / Sarah Krajewski 2.97
Laura Slovensky / Mia Quinlan
Julia Conneely / Charlotte Mccarthy 2.21		35%5–7 (42%)+0.8
4Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineers		38.25
school +0.06		Brooke Barry / Mercedes Escandon 2.03
Brooke Schmelz / Samantha Karlson 3.17
Lucy Brock / Shayne Bersin 2.98		54%5–7 (42%)−1.4
5University of Rhode Island
Rams		56.28
school −0.09		Kytalin Hendrickson / Lily Moore 2.47
Katie Coughlin / Kaylee Good 1.84
Leah Rickard / Ursula Budd 2.01		12%0–12 (0%)−1.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Boston College10.0713.0712–010.6≥+3.002.023%
3U. S. Coast Guard Academy7.547.935–74.2+0.390.241%
2Brown University8.608.968–47.3+0.360.245%
4Massachusetts Institute of Technology8.257.575–76.4−0.680.791%
5University of Rhode Island6.283.280–121.4≤−3.002.1>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Laura SlovenskyU. S. Coast Guard Academy2.312.705–74.2+0.390.241%
Charlotte CostikyanBrown University2.612.978–47.3+0.360.245%
Brooke BarryMassachusetts Institute of Technology2.031.355–76.4−0.680.791%
Katie CoughlinUniversity of Rhode Island1.84-1.160–121.4≤−3.002.1>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Boston CollegeBrown University79%
12U. S. Coast Guard AcademyUniversity of Rhode Island78%
13Boston CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology86%
14Brown UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy78%
15Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyUniversity of Rhode Island88%
16Boston CollegeU. S. Coast Guard Academy93%
17Brown UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island90%
18Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyU. S. Coast Guard Academy67%
19Boston CollegeUniversity of Rhode Island98%
110Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBrown University46%upset
211Boston CollegeBrown University79%
212U. S. Coast Guard AcademyUniversity of Rhode Island78%
213Boston CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology86%
214Brown UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy77%
215Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyUniversity of Rhode Island88%
216Boston CollegeU. S. Coast Guard Academy93%
217Brown UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island90%
218U. S. Coast Guard AcademyMassachusetts Institute of Technology33%upset
219Boston CollegeUniversity of Rhode Island98%
220Brown UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology54%
321Boston CollegeBrown University78%
322U. S. Coast Guard AcademyUniversity of Rhode Island78%
323Boston CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology86%
324Brown UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy77%
325Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyUniversity of Rhode Island88%
326Boston CollegeU. S. Coast Guard Academy92%
327Brown UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island89%
328U. S. Coast Guard AcademyMassachusetts Institute of Technology34%upset
329Boston CollegeUniversity of Rhode Island98%
330Brown UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology54%

Round 1

TeamRec.EaglesBearsBearsEngineersRams
Boston College Eagles4–0✕WWWW
Brown University Bears2–2L✕WLW
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears1–3LL✕LW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers3–1LWW✕W
University of Rhode Island Rams0–4LLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.EaglesBearsBearsEngineersRams
Boston College Eagles4–0✕WWWW
Brown University Bears3–1L✕WWW
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears2–2LL✕WW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers1–3LLL✕W
University of Rhode Island Rams0–4LLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.EaglesBearsBearsEngineersRams
Boston College Eagles4–0✕WWWW
Brown University Bears3–1L✕WWW
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears2–2LL✕WW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers1–3LLL✕W
University of Rhode Island Rams0–4LLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Boston College Eagles 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-5
2 U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-2-6 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-5
3 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4-5-6
4 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3-4-6
5 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 1-5-6
6 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3-4-6
7 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 4-5-6
8 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3-4-6
9 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 4-5-6
10 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-4 def. Brown University Bears 3-5-6
11 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-6
12 U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-3-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2-4-6
13 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
14 Brown University Bears 2-3-5 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-4-6
15 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 4-5-6
16 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4-5-6
17 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 4-5-6
18 U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
19 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 4-5-6
20 Brown University Bears 1-4-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-6
21 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-6
22 U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
23 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
24 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4-5-6
25 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-6 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-5
26 Boston College Eagles 1-2-4 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3-5-6
27 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
28 U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2-3-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-5-6
29 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
30 Brown University Bears 1-3-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-4-6

Conditions — 03/16/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 1009.4 hPa

Temperature

49°F
↑ 53°F   ↓ 37°F
Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.7 kn
avg  ·  max 10.4 kn
Gusts to 22.0 kn
From WSW (237°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover38% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1009.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.11)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →