Men's Open Singlehanded National Championship

HostRhode Island
Date05/01/2021
TypeNational Championship Finals
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Georgetown University	Thomas Mccann '22	44
2	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Charles Carraway '22	58
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Nicholas Sessions '24	87
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Richie Gordon '21	113
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Gage Schoenherr '21	117
6	College of Charleston	Malcolm Benn Smith '21	131
7	Tulane University	Thad Lettsome '24	133
8	U. S. Naval Academy	Gavin Mcjones '23	152
9	Stanford University	John Kirkpatrick '22	158
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Keiran James Golden '24	159
11	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Carrson Pearce '21	164
12	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	David Pearce '23	179
13	U. S. Naval Academy	Caden Scheiblauer '23	207
14	University of Rhode Island	Parker Colantuono '22	223
15	U. S. Naval Academy	Connor Bayless '21	227
16	Tulane University	Marcus Huttunen '24	233
17	George Washington University	Soenke Jordan '21	235
18	Roger Williams University	Spencer Cartwright '22	240
19	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Pete Mcgriff '24	243
20	George Washington University	Michael Ehnot '22	244
21	Christopher Newport University	David Grace '23	249
22	Tufts University	Bryan Trammell '23	269
23	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Luke Welker '21	310
24	College of Charleston	Alexander Gonzalez '24	315
25	SUNY Maritime College	Spencer Barnes '24	363
26	George Washington University	Matthew Priebe '22	365
27	Tufts University	Ege Ozgul '23	379
28	University of Rhode Island	Ben Rosenberg '23	380
29	U. S. Naval Academy	Louis Margay '22	399
30	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Matthew Kickhafer '23	406
31	Old Dominion University	John Glenn '22	406
32	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Dax Thompson '24	433
33	University of Rhode Island	Zachary Champney '22	438
34	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Michael Pinto '23	446
35	University of Rhode Island	Henry Lee '24	447
36	Tufts University	Matthew Galbraith '21	461
37	Connecticut College	Andrew Powers '24	468
38	Old Dominion University	Dreugh Phillips '21	515
39	Tufts University	Evan Robison '21	536
40	Connecticut College	Willem Weinberg '24	550
41	Christopher Newport University	Brian Fox '23	566

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT
Georgetown University	Thomas Mccann '22	8	3	2	4	3	2	9	1	1	3	1	4	2	1	44
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Charles Carraway '22	2	1	6	1	10	5	11	2	3	7	2	1	5	2	58
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Nicholas Sessions '24	1	2	1	24	9	8	2	5	6	10	4	6	6	3	87
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Richie Gordon '21	3	18	5	28	11	19	3	6	4	1	5	2	4	4	113
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Gage Schoenherr '21	5	24	18	22	4	9	1	3	2	4	13	3	1	8	117
College of Charleston	Malcolm Benn Smith '21	12	8	4	5	13	22	5	9	5	2	20	7	7	12	131
Tulane University	Thad Lettsome '24	11	4	BKD	BKD	6	12	8	12	8	5	7	22	10	10	133
U. S. Naval Academy	Gavin Mcjones '23	4	33	8	3	7	16	12	8	15	11	11	11	8	5	152
Stanford University	John Kirkpatrick '22	15	20	9	36	17	13	7	10	7	6	3	5	3	7	158
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Keiran James Golden '24	9	15	11	21	24	1	13	4	10	9	12	9	15	6	159
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Carrson Pearce '21	10	5	7	2	21	6	14	7	18	17	6	16	16	19	164
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	David Pearce '23	14	6	3	6	30	15	6	15	19	15	8	13	13	16	179
U. S. Naval Academy	Caden Scheiblauer '23	13	11	16	20	1	18	16	22	9	14	18	20	11	18	207
University of Rhode Island	Parker Colantuono '22	16	9	22	8	18	7	20	18	23	19	9	21	19	14	223
U. S. Naval Academy	Connor Bayless '21	26	7	19	34	22	14	4	11	14	13	25	15	12	11	227
Tulane University	Marcus Huttunen '24	6	22	17	7	27	21	10	14	12	12	15	8	20	DNS	233
George Washington University	Soenke Jordan '21	19	13	27	23	12	24	22	16	RDG	RDG	16	14	14	9	235
Roger Williams University	Spencer Cartwright '22	18	12	14	17	2	17	19	19	13	16	23	23	25	22	240
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Pete Mcgriff '24	7	27	12	40	33	26	17	13	11	8	10	17	9	13	243
George Washington University	Michael Ehnot '22	24	14	10	16	20	3	15	17	21	21	17	18	27	21	244
Christopher Newport University	David Grace '23	20	35	30	14	5	10	23	20	16	18	14	12	17	15	249
Tufts University	Bryan Trammell '23	21	17	24	9	15	27	27	23	20	22	19	10	18	17	269
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Luke Welker '21	17	19	25	10	14	4	26	32	31	27	21	26	32	26	310
College of Charleston	Alexander Gonzalez '24	23	26	31	15	32	11	29	24	17	23	24	19	21	20	315
SUNY Maritime College	Spencer Barnes '24	22	10	34	12	26	32	30	33	30	30	27	27	26	24	363
George Washington University	Matthew Priebe '22	30	31	26	29	8	28	21	21	26	28	28	DNF	24	23	365
Tufts University	Ege Ozgul '23	29	30	32	35	28	20	18	25	25	29	26	24	23	35	379
University of Rhode Island	Ben Rosenberg '23	25	34	23	13	29	29	24	29	24	24	30	29	37	30	380
U. S. Naval Academy	Louis Margay '22	31	36	15	19	19	25	32	31	34	25	33	30	35	34	399
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Matthew Kickhafer '23	27	37	21	41	25	23	25	28	29	34	32	31	28	25	406
Old Dominion University	John Glenn '22	33	28	35	25	37	31	37	26	36	20	22	25	22	29	406
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Dax Thompson '24	37	16	36	26	23	34	33	34	35	33	34	32	29	31	433
University of Rhode Island	Zachary Champney '22	28	38	28	27	36	30	28	35	32	31	31	36	30	28	438
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Michael Pinto '23	36	25	38	37	16	36	36	27	27	35	36	34	36	27	446
University of Rhode Island	Henry Lee '24	35	29	20	33	35	39	34	38	28	32	29	28	34	33	447
Tufts University	Matthew Galbraith '21	32	23	39	32	31	37	35	30	33	36	37	33	31	32	461
Connecticut College	Andrew Powers '24	38	21	29	31	34	35	31	36	37	26	35	35	38	DNS	468
Old Dominion University	Dreugh Phillips '21	39	32	33	39	40	33	40	39	38	38	38	37	33	36	515
Tufts University	Evan Robison '21	34	39	37	30	41	38	38	40	39	39	39	38	DNF	DNS	536
Connecticut College	Willem Weinberg '24	DNS	DNS	41	18	38	DNF	DNS	DNS	40	37	40	DNF	DNS	DNS	550
Christopher Newport University	Brian Fox '23	DNS	DNS	40	38	39	40	39	37	41	40	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	566

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 41 boats · 14 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Thomas Mccann '22	Georgetown University	14/14	3.73	6.25	+2.53	93rd → 99th	20.3	<1%	3.1 / 14.0
2	Charles Carraway '22	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1	14/14	3.88	5.72	+1.85	94th → 99th	12.6	<1%	4.1 / 13.0
3	Nicholas Sessions '24	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2	14/14	3.44	4.95	+1.51	89th → 99th	9.3	1%	6.2 / 15.6
4	Richie Gordon '21	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1	14/14	3.24	4.39	+1.15	85th → 98th	5.9	1%	8.1 / 16.8
5	Gage Schoenherr '21	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2	14/14	3.94	4.32	+0.38	95th → 98th	0.8	12%	8.4 / 13.0
6	Malcolm Benn Smith '21	College of Charleston Cougars 1	14/14	3.15	4.25	+1.10	84th → 98th	5.5	3%	9.4 / 17.3
7	Gavin Mcjones '23	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3	14/14	3.40	3.83	+0.43	89th → 94th	0.9	12%	10.9 / 16.0
8	John Kirkpatrick '22	Stanford University	14/14	3.00	3.74	+0.74	82nd → 93rd	2.6	6%	11.3 / 18.1
9	Keiran James Golden '24	St. Mary's College of Maryland	14/14	3.09	3.97	+0.88	83rd → 95th	3.7	7%	11.4 / 17.8
10	Carrson Pearce '21	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1	14/14	3.90	3.81	−0.08	94th → 94th	0.0	41%	11.7 / 13.0
11	David Pearce '23	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3	14/14	2.85	3.65	+0.80	78th → 93rd	3.2	7%	12.8 / 19.2
12	Thad Lettsome '24	Tulane University Green Wave 1	14/14	3.43	4.24	+0.81	89th → 98th	2.7	37%	14.2 / 15.8
13	Caden Scheiblauer '23	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4	14/14	2.70	3.51	+0.81	72nd → 91st	3.3	12%	14.8 / 20.1
14	Parker Colantuono '22	University of Rhode Island Rams 1	14/14	2.69	3.35	+0.66	71st → 89th	2.2	20%	15.9 / 20.0
15	Connor Bayless '21	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	14/14	3.39	3.15	−0.24	89th → 84th	0.4	55%	16.2 / 15.9
16	Marcus Huttunen '24	Tulane University Green Wave 2	14/14	2.77	3.48	+0.71	74th → 90th	2.4	26%	16.6 / 19.7
17	Spencer Cartwright '22	Roger Williams University	14/14	3.34	3.14	−0.20	89th → 84th	0.3	58%	17.1 / 16.4
18	Pete Mcgriff '24	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3	14/14	2.13	2.79	+0.66	56th → 76th	2.1	10%	17.4 / 23.6
19	Michael Ehnot '22	George Washington University Colonials 1	14/14	2.75	3.12	+0.37	73rd → 84th	0.8	30%	17.4 / 19.7
20	David Grace '23	Christopher Newport University Captains 2	14/14	2.42	2.97	+0.54	62nd → 81st	1.6	26%	17.8 / 21.8
21	Bryan Trammell '23	Tufts University Jumbos 1	14/14	2.61	2.93	+0.32	68th → 79th	0.6	41%	19.2 / 20.7
22	Soenke Jordan '21	George Washington University Colonials 3	14/14	3.00	3.17	+0.17	82nd → 84th	0.1	73%	20.9 / 18.2
23	Luke Welker '21	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2	14/14	2.35	2.41	+0.07	60th → 61st	0.0	47%	22.1 / 22.5
24	Alexander Gonzalez '24	College of Charleston Cougars 2	14/14	2.67	2.53	−0.14	71st → 66th	0.1	66%	22.5 / 20.2
25	Spencer Barnes '24	SUNY Maritime College	14/14	2.65	2.04	−0.60	70th → 53rd	2.6	87%	25.9 / 20.4
26	Matthew Priebe '22	George Washington University Colonials 2	14/14	2.59	2.30	−0.28	68th → 60th	0.5	81%	26.1 / 20.9
27	Ege Ozgul '23	Tufts University Jumbos 2	14/14	1.65	1.99	+0.34	41st → 51st	0.6	56%	27.1 / 26.1
28	Ben Rosenberg '23	University of Rhode Island Rams 3	14/14	2.32	1.89	−0.44	60th → 48th	1.3	79%	27.1 / 22.5
29	Louis Margay '22	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	14/14	1.96	1.67	−0.29	50th → 41st	0.5	80%	28.5 / 24.6
30	John Glenn '22	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	14/14	1.71	1.68	−0.03	42nd → 42nd	0.0	73%	29.0 / 26.2
30	Matthew Kickhafer '23	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4	14/14	2.29	1.61	−0.68	59th → 40th	3.0	92%	29.0 / 22.5
32	Dax Thompson '24	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4	14/14	1.58	1.46	−0.12	39th → 36th	0.1	76%	30.9 / 26.7
33	Zachary Champney '22	University of Rhode Island Rams 2	14/14	2.02	1.44	−0.58	53rd → 35th	2.3	89%	31.3 / 24.2
34	Michael Pinto '23	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3	14/14	2.12	1.23	−0.89	56th → 29th	5.8	97%	31.9 / 23.7
35	Henry Lee '24	University of Rhode Island Rams 4	14/14	1.59	1.29	−0.30	39th → 30th	0.6	83%	31.9 / 26.6
36	Matthew Galbraith '21	Tufts University Jumbos 3	14/14	1.51	1.23	−0.27	38th → 29th	0.5	86%	32.9 / 27.1
37	Andrew Powers '24	Connecticut College Camels 2	14/14	1.54	1.10	−0.45	38th → 25th	1.1	89%	33.4 / 26.8
38	Dreugh Phillips '21	Old Dominion University Monarchs 2	14/14	1.77	0.13	−1.64	43rd → 9th	17.9	99%	36.8 / 25.7
39	Evan Robison '21	Tufts University Jumbos 4	14/14	1.03	-0.10	−1.13	24th → 5th	5.7	98%	38.3 / 29.5
40	Willem Weinberg '24	Connecticut College Camels 1	14/14	0.63	-0.08	−0.71	17th → 5th	1.0	99%	39.3 / 31.3
41	Brian Fox '23	Christopher Newport University Captains 1	14/14	1.41	-0.48	−1.89	34th → 3rd	11.8	>99%	40.4 / 27.7

Conditions — 05/01/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 46% · Pressure 1008.0 hPa

Temperature

57°F

↑ 62°F ↓ 44°F

Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.2 kn

avg · max 12.7 kn

Gusts to 28.2 kn

From NW (309°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover11% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1008.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Rhode Island — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Rhode Island in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rhode Island by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (47 labelled fleet-race days at Rhode Island).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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