NEISA Men's Singlehanded Championship

HostYale
Date09/14/2019
TypeConference Championship
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Richie Gordon '21	46
2	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Gage Schoenherr '21	48
3	Brown University	Connor Nelson '24	56
4	Boston University	Javier De Urdanibia Panos '21	95
5	Roger Williams University	Spencer Cartwright '22	101
6	Boston College	Scott Rasmussen '20	104
7	Yale University	Nicholas Davies '24	105
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Andrew Widmeier '20	111
9	Northeastern University	Ted Bjerregaard '23	123
10	Roger Williams University	Peter Neal '20	156
11	Yale University	Petru Neagu '23	160
12	University of Rhode Island	Parker Colantuono '22	168
13	Tufts University	Bryan Trammell '23	177
14	Roger Williams University	Chase Reynolds '23	179
15	Connecticut College	Harris Padegs '23	184
16	University of Rhode Island	William Mckeige '22	185
17	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Michael Pinto '23	200
18	Brown University	Gabriel Hannon '20	235
19	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Matthew Kickhafer '23	240
20	University of Vermont	Alexander Runci '23	266
21	Sacred Heart University	Brian Hayes '21	307

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Richie Gordon '21	1	4	1	4	3	2	6	1	1	3	9	5	4	2	46
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Gage Schoenherr '21	2	1	6	1	9	3	3	4	4	5	1	2	6	1	48
Brown University	Connor Nelson '24	4	5	2	6	8	1	2	2	2	8	4	8	1	3	56
Boston University	Javier De Urdanibia Panos '21	8	RDG	4	8	4	7	12	3	6	2	7	4	3	15	95
Roger Williams University	Spencer Cartwright '22	3	12	16	5	11	5	1	9	9	7	8	3	7	5	101
Boston College	Scott Rasmussen '20	5	2	3	7	1	10	4	6	3	11	17	6	16	13	104
Yale University	Nicholas Davies '24	10	3	9	9	2	8	16	5	10	9	3	1	12	8	105
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Andrew Widmeier '20	7	10	10	10	6	4	10	13	14	1	10	10	2	4	111
Northeastern University	Ted Bjerregaard '23	9	9	5	2	7	11	8	15	7	10	2	15	17	6	123
Roger Williams University	Peter Neal '20	6	7	14	17	14	12	5	10	13	17	12	11	11	7	156
Yale University	Petru Neagu '23	11	19	17	3	10	6	13	8	11	6	20	14	5	17	160
University of Rhode Island	Parker Colantuono '22	14	6	7	16	16	18	7	12	8	19	6	12	18	9	168
Tufts University	Bryan Trammell '23	12	14	11	11	13	9	18	7	5	15	19	19	13	11	177
Roger Williams University	Chase Reynolds '23	17	8	12	12	12	16	20	16	12	12	13	9	8	12	179
Connecticut College	Harris Padegs '23	15	16	13	15	5	13	15	11	15	14	16	7	15	14	184
University of Rhode Island	William Mckeige '22	13	11	8	13	15	14	11	14	17	13	15	13	10	18	185
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Michael Pinto '23	16	15	19	20	20	17	9	20	19	4	5	17	9	10	200
Brown University	Gabriel Hannon '20	18	18	15	14	17	20	14	18	16	16	14	16	20	19	235
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Matthew Kickhafer '23	19	17	20	18	18	15	19	17	18	20	11	18	14	16	240
University of Vermont	Alexander Runci '23	20	20	18	19	19	19	17	19	20	18	18	20	19	20	266
Sacred Heart University	Brian Hayes '21	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	21	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	307

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.
— in the performance column: last in every race sailed, so no finite least-surprisal rating exists.

Division A 21 boats · 14 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Richie Gordon '21	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2	14/14	3.29	4.99	+1.70	86th → 99th	10.4	<1%	3.3 / 8.2
2	Gage Schoenherr '21	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3	14/14	3.58	4.86	+1.28	92nd → 99th	6.3	2%	3.4 / 7.3
3	Connor Nelson '24	Brown University Bears 1	14/14	3.38	4.58	+1.19	89th → 99th	5.8	3%	4.0 / 7.9
4	Spencer Cartwright '22	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	14/14	2.92	3.30	+0.38	79th → 87th	0.7	25%	7.2 / 9.4
5	Scott Rasmussen '20	Boston College	14/14	3.16	3.12	−0.05	84th → 84th	0.0	33%	7.4 / 8.5
6	Javier De Urdanibia Panos '21	Boston University	14/14	3.30	3.56	+0.26	87th → 92nd	0.3	44%	7.5 / 8.2
6	Nicholas Davies '24	Yale University Bulldogs 1	14/14	2.94	3.26	+0.33	79th → 86th	0.5	24%	7.5 / 9.2
8	Andrew Widmeier '20	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1	14/14	2.86	3.15	+0.29	78th → 84th	0.4	25%	7.9 / 9.6
9	Ted Bjerregaard '23	Northeastern University	14/14	2.30	2.91	+0.61	60th → 79th	1.8	17%	8.8 / 11.2
10	Peter Neal '20	Roger Williams University Hawks 3	14/14	2.49	2.44	−0.05	63rd → 62nd	0.0	59%	11.1 / 10.6
11	Petru Neagu '23	Yale University Bulldogs 2	14/14	1.90	2.02	+0.12	48th → 53rd	0.1	38%	11.4 / 12.4
12	Parker Colantuono '22	University of Rhode Island Rams 1	14/14	2.68	2.02	−0.66	71st → 53rd	2.7	80%	12.0 / 10.0
13	Bryan Trammell '23	Tufts University	14/14	2.13	1.99	−0.14	56th → 51st	0.1	60%	12.6 / 11.8
14	Chase Reynolds '23	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	14/14	1.96	2.01	+0.04	50th → 52nd	0.0	56%	12.8 / 12.3
15	Harris Padegs '23	Connecticut College	14/14	2.14	2.13	−0.01	56th → 56th	0.0	67%	13.1 / 11.8
16	William Mckeige '22	University of Rhode Island Rams 2	14/14	1.35^u	2.11	+0.76	32nd → 55th	2.8	36%	13.2 / 14.1
17	Michael Pinto '23	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 5	14/14	1.76	0.99	−0.77	43rd → 22nd	2.9	71%	14.3 / 12.9
18	Gabriel Hannon '20	Brown University Bears 2	14/14	1.90	0.98	−0.92	48th → 22nd	4.9	97%	16.8 / 12.5
19	Matthew Kickhafer '23	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4	14/14	1.88	0.95	−0.93	47th → 22nd	5.4	98%	17.1 / 12.6
20	Alexander Runci '23	University of Vermont	14/14	1.11	0.19	−0.91	25th → 9th	3.9	96%	19.0 / 14.7
21	Brian Hayes '21	Sacred Heart University	14/14	0.75	—	—	17th → —	1.6	>99%	21.9 / 15.7

Conditions — 09/14/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 69% · Pressure 1025.1 hPa

Temperature

71°F

↑ 73°F ↓ 66°F

Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.1 kn

avg · max 12.1 kn

Gusts to 28.4 kn

From S (190°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover85% Sunshine8.3 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1025.1 hPa Rain0.07 in

What this breeze does at Yale — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Yale in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.14)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Yale by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Yale).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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