| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Boston College | Eagles 1 | 10–0 |
| 2 | |
Boston College | Eagles 3 | 7–3 |
| 3 | |
Boston College | Eagles 2 | 6–4 |
| 4 |  |
Connecticut College | Camels 2 | 4–6 |
| 5 | |
Connecticut College | Camels 1 | 3–7 |
| 6 | |
Connecticut College | Camels 3 | 0–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 15,436 team race matches sailed before 2021-03-27, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 26 of 30 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.375 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.15 ± 0.31: a typical event, more orderly than 27% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boston College Eagles 1 | 9.30 | 12.30 | 10–0 | 9.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.8 | 57% |
| 4 | Connecticut College Camels 2 | 3.97 | 5.94 | 4–6 | 1.6 | +1.97 | 3.6 | 3% |
| 2 | Boston College Eagles 3 | 6.60 | 7.64 | 7–3 | 5.8 | +1.04 | 0.9 | 25% |
| 5 | Connecticut College Camels 1 | 5.61 | 4.56 | 3–7 | 4.3 | −1.04 | 1.0 | 95% |
| 3 | Boston College Eagles 2 | 7.44 | 6.16 | 6–4 | 7.5 | −1.28 | 1.5 | 97% |
| 6 | Connecticut College Camels 3 | 3.79 | 0.79 | 0–10 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 2.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fritz Baldauf | Connecticut College | 1.58 | 3.55 | 4–6 | 1.6 | +1.97 | 3.6 | 3% |
| Nicholas Lorentzen | Connecticut College | 0.52 | 2.49 | 4–6 | 1.6 | +1.97 | 3.6 | 3% |
| Alexandra Tillinghast | Connecticut College | 1.08 | 3.05 | 4–6 | 1.6 | +1.97 | 3.6 | 3% |
| Chip Kreuzkamp | Boston College | 1.65 | 3.33 | 7–1 | 5.6 | +1.68 | 1.6 | 17% |
| Anna Olsen | Connecticut College | 1.75 | 0.70 | 3–7 | 4.3 | −1.04 | 1.0 | 95% |
| Aili Moffet | Connecticut College | 1.90 | 0.85 | 3–7 | 4.3 | −1.04 | 1.0 | 95% |
| Christina Van Dyke | Connecticut College | 1.20 | 0.16 | 3–7 | 4.3 | −1.04 | 1.0 | 95% |
| Lourdes Gallo | Boston College | 1.98 | 0.70 | 6–4 | 7.5 | −1.28 | 1.5 | 97% |
| Abigail Lenox | Connecticut College | 0.45 | -2.55 | 0–10 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 2.2 | >99% |
| Wade Anthony | Connecticut College | 1.48 | -1.52 | 0–10 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 2.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles 1 | 11–4 | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Boston College Eagles 3 | 11–4 | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Boston College Eagles 2 | 11–4 | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Connecticut College Camels 2 | 4–11 | L | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
| Connecticut College Camels 1 | 4–11 | L | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
| Connecticut College Camels 3 | 4–11 | L | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles 1 | 12–3 | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Boston College Eagles 3 | 12–3 | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Boston College Eagles 2 | 12–3 | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Connecticut College Camels 2 | 3–12 | L | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
| Connecticut College Camels 1 | 3–12 | L | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
| Connecticut College Camels 3 | 3–12 | L | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Eagles 3 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Camels 1 | 2-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Eagles 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Camels 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Eagles 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Camels 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Eagles 3 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Camels 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Eagles 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Camels 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Eagles 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Camels 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Eagles 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Eagles 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Camels 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Camels 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Camels 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Eagles 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Camels 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Eagles 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Camels 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Camels 1 | 1-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Eagles 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Camels 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Eagles 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Eagles 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Camels 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Eagles 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Camels 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Eagles 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Camels 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Eagles 3 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Camels 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Eagles 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Camels 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Eagles 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Camels 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Eagles 3 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Camels 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Eagles 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Camels 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Camels 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Eagles 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Camels 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Eagles 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles 3 | 2-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Camels 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Eagles 3 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Camels 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Eagles 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles 2 | 1-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Boston College | Eagles 1 | Colleen O'Brien '24 Jack Denatale '22 Robert Hunter '22 |
Laura Ferraris '22 Elizabeth Russell '21 Nicole Moeder '22 |
|
Boston College | Eagles 3 | Chip Kreuzkamp '24 Elizabeth Shanahan '23 Francis Selldorff '23 Michaela O'Brien '24 |
Katelyn Mcgauley '24 Mikayla Mathieu '22 Ginny Alex '22 John (Jack) Plavan '23 |
|
Boston College | Eagles 2 | Graham Ness '23 Libby Redmond '24 Lourdes Gallo '24 |
Emma Batcher '22 Declan Mcgranahan '22 Lilly Mathieu '23 |
|
Connecticut College | Camels 2 | Alexandra Tillinghast '23 Fritz Baldauf '24 Nicholas Lorentzen '24 |
Cecilia Bohan '24 Simon Moreira '22 Ashley Breyer '24 |
|
Connecticut College | Camels 1 | Aili Moffet '23 Anna Olsen '24 Christina Van Dyke '23 |
Charlotte Williams '21 Alexandra Wagner '22 Kensie Winton '23 |
|
Connecticut College | Camels 3 | Abigail Lenox '23 Miya Preyer '23 Wade Anthony '24 |
Avery White '23 Renee Smith '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
