Connecticut College '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.63 (fleet 2.27) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–40 (11%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 4 | 5–40 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (45 matches) the record is 5–40 against 6.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-25 | NEISA Team Race Championship for Fowle Trophy | skipper | 1.78 | 3.21 | 1–11 | 0.3 | +1.43 | 0.9 | 23% |
| 2021-04-02 | BC Team Race | skipper | 1.76 | -1.24 | 0–15 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| 2021-03-27 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 1.75 | 0.70 | 3–7 | 4.3 | −1.04 | 1.0 | 95% |
| 2021-03-20 | Southern New England Team Race | skipper | 1.52 | 0.70 | 1–7 | 1.5 | −0.83 | 0.3 | 92% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.5 | 2.23 |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| New England Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 13.5 | — |
| NEISA Team Race Championship for Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 12 | 8% | — |
| Coed New England Championship | Skipper | B | 1 | 16.0 | — |
| Camel invite | Skipper | B | 9 | 12.7 | -0.24 |
| Camel Fleet Race Invite | Skipper | A | 2 | 7.5 | -0.87 |
| BC Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Anna Olsen |  University of Vermont |
'25 |
| ISSA | Anna Olsen |  Tabor Academy |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
