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Camel Fleet Race Invite

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal Coed 1 25
2 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal Coed 2 59
3 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 96
4 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 4 115
5 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 3 131
6 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 139
7 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 5 170
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal Coed 1 B 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 Hannah Freeman '24
Marta Munte '23
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal Coed 1 A 2 3 2 2 3 4 2 18 Telis Athanasopoulos Yogo '22
Anaclare Sole '23
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal Coed 2 B 3 2 5 4 2 2 3 21 Grace Austin '24
Laurel Foster '22
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal Coed 2 A 9 4 4 3 6 5 7 38 Berta Puig '24
Gwendolyn Donahue '24
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 B 4 5 11 10 4 7 4 45 Andrew Powers '24
Alexandra Tillinghast '23
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 A 14 6 3 12 7 3 6 51 Christina Van Dyke '23
Eloise (Ellie) Pieper '23
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 4 A 12 7 7 6 5 11 8 56 Aili Moffet '23
Charlotte Williams '21
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 4 B 8 13 6 11 10 6 5 59 Fritz Baldauf '24
Cecilia Bohan '24
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 B 5 12 9 5 11 9 11 62 Miya Preyer '23
Kensie Winton '23
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 3 B 7 10 12 7 8 12 9 65 Willem Weinberg '24
Ashley Breyer '24
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 3 A 10 8 10 8 12 8 10 66 Wade Anthony '24
Margaret Benson '23
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 5 A 11 11 8 9 13 10 12 74 Abigail Lenox '23 [1-7]
Simon Moreira '22 [1-5]
Gavin Dowley '24 [6-7]
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 A 6 9 14 13 9 13 13 77 Anna Olsen '24 [1-2]
Nicholas Lorentzen '24 [3-7]
Ellie Wagner '23 [1-2]
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 5 B 13 14 13 14 14 14 14 96 Abigail Lenox '23 [1-7]
Simon Moreira '22 [1-5]
Gavin Dowley '24 [6-7]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 11111111
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 22222222
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 36666666
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 411111111111111
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 57777777
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal Coed 19999999
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal Coed 210101010101010

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 13333333
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 25555555
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 38888888
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 44444444
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 512121212121212
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal Coed 113131313131313
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal Coed 214141414141414

Conditions — 04/09/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 76%  ·  Pressure 1022.1 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.3 kn
avg  ·  max 6.3 kn
Gusts to 18.1 kn
From S (185°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover65% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1022.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Connecticut College: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.28 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →