| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 9–3 |
| 2 |  |
Boston College | Eagles | 8–4 |
| 3 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 7–5 |
| 4 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 7–5 |
| 5 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | 7–5 |
| 6 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams | 3–9 |
| 7 |  |
Connecticut College | Camels | 1–11 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 15,658 team race matches sailed before 2021-04-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 31 of 42 matches (74%) with a log-loss of 0.583 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.57 ± 0.33: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 9% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Connecticut College | 5.83 | 7.26 | 1–11 | 0.3 | +1.43 | 0.9 | 23% |
| 2 | Boston College | 9.29 | 10.37 | 8–4 | 5.6 | +1.08 | 1.9 | 10% |
| 4 | Tufts University | 9.23 | 9.92 | 7–5 | 5.4 | +0.69 | 0.8 | 23% |
| 5 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 9.96 | 9.77 | 7–5 | 7.4 | −0.19 | 0.1 | 73% |
| 3 | Brown University | 9.99 | 9.76 | 7–5 | 7.5 | −0.23 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 1 | Roger Williams University | 11.16 | 10.43 | 9–3 | 10.3 | −0.73 | 0.7 | 92% |
| 6 | University of Rhode Island | 9.26 | 7.81 | 3–9 | 5.5 | −1.45 | 2.4 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Powers | Connecticut College | 1.76 | 3.32 | 1–9 | 0.2 | +1.56 | 1.1 | 21% |
| Aili Moffet | Connecticut College | 1.92 | 3.35 | 1–11 | 0.3 | +1.43 | 0.9 | 23% |
| Anna Olsen | Connecticut College | 1.78 | 3.21 | 1–11 | 0.3 | +1.43 | 0.9 | 23% |
| Charlie Hibben | Tufts University | 2.93 | 3.62 | 7–5 | 5.4 | +0.69 | 0.8 | 23% |
| Alex Fasolo | Tufts University | 2.97 | 3.66 | 7–5 | 5.4 | +0.69 | 0.8 | 23% |
| Gage Schoenherr | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 3.73 | 3.54 | 7–5 | 7.4 | −0.19 | 0.1 | 73% |
| Olivia Belda | Brown University | 3.38 | 3.15 | 7–5 | 7.5 | −0.23 | 0.1 | 76% |
| Spencer Cartwright | Roger Williams University | 3.67 | 2.94 | 9–3 | 10.3 | −0.73 | 0.7 | 92% |
| Aidan Hoogland | Roger Williams University | 3.42 | 2.69 | 9–3 | 10.3 | −0.73 | 0.7 | 92% |
| Aidan Naughton | University of Rhode Island | 3.18 | 1.73 | 3–9 | 5.5 | −1.45 | 2.4 | 99% |
| Michael O'Flaherty | University of Rhode Island | 2.89 | 1.44 | 3–9 | 5.5 | −1.45 | 2.4 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Eagles | Bears | Jumbos | Bears | Rams | Camels | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 5–1 | ✕ | W | W | W | L | W | W |
| Boston College Eagles | 2–4 | L | ✕ | L | L | L | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 5–1 | L | W | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 4–2 | L | W | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 4–2 | W | W | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 1–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Connecticut College Camels | 0–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Eagles | Bears | Jumbos | Bears | Rams | Camels | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 4–2 | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W | L |
| Boston College Eagles | 6–0 | W | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 2–4 | L | L | ✕ | L | W | L | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 3–3 | L | L | W | ✕ | L | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 3–3 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 2–4 | L | L | W | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Connecticut College Camels | 1–5 | W | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Hawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Camels | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Camels | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Bears | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 1-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Camels | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Bears | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Camels | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Camels | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 2-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Eagles | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 1-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Camels | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Camels | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Hawks | 2-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Rams | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Camels | 2-4-5 |
| 33 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Camels | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Rams | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Eagles | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 1-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Hawks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 1-4-6 |
| 41 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos | 4-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Camels | 4-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
