The 41st Silver Grey Lynne Marchiando Trophy

HostMIT
Date03/30/2024
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	14–4
2	Roger Williams University	Hawks	12–6
3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	11–7
4	University of Rhode Island	Rams	9–9
5	Tufts University	Jumbos	7–11
6	College of Charleston	Cougars	5–13
7	Boston College	Eagles	5–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 23,468 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 40 of 63 matches (64%) with a log-loss of 0.663 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.49 ± 0.27: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 11% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	11.63 school +0.33	Morgan Pinckney / Jessi Avila-Shah 3.52 Teddy Nicolosi / Sarah Moeder 3.91 9–3 Stephan Baker / Elle Sykes 3.81 10–2 Stephan Baker / Ashley Highland 3.84 4–2 Jack Egan / Nathan Sih 4.01 5–1	79%	14–4 (78%)	−0.2
2	Roger Williams University Hawks	2	11.31 school +0.32	Aidan Hoogland / Jed Lory 3.58 8–4 Carlos De Castro / Carly Kiss 3.89 8–4 Kyle Pfrang / Claire Buckley 3.58 8–4 Aidan Hoogland / Hank Bailey 3.59 4–2 Carlos De Castro / Jed Lory 3.73 4–2 Kyle Pfrang / Peter Cotoia 3.52 4–2	72%	12–6 (67%)	−1.0
3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3	10.77 school +0.05	Daniel Unangst / Charles Pohl 3.48 Nicholas Reeser / Daniel Neville 3.38 Colman Schofield / Laura Slovensky 3.84 9–6 Colman Schofield / Lauren O'Neill 3.83 2–1	61%	11–7 (61%)	+0.0
4	University of Rhode Island Rams	7	9.09 school −0.14	Tyler Nash / Sadie Thomas 2.96 Henry Lee / Eric Pohl 2.77 Kerem Erkmen / Abbie Chipps 3.51 5–7 Kerem Erkmen / Miles Bailey 3.42 4–2	21%	9–9 (50%)	+5.2
5	Tufts University Jumbos	6	9.52 school +0.18	Wyatt Bischoff / Celia Byrne 2.71 Ben Mueller / William Eykyn 3.33 2–7 Trevor Davis / Henry Tindall 3.31 2–7 Ben Mueller / Henry Tindall 3.33 5–4 Trevor Davis / Cindy Wang 3.29 5–4	30%	7–11 (39%)	+1.5
6	College of Charleston Cougars	5	9.85 school +0.42	Noah Zittrer / Aidan Iaconis 3.16 Brandon Geller / Garrett Grenauer 3.27 2–10 Axel Stordahl / Lucy Klempen 2.98 2–10 Benjamin Dufour / Lucy Klempen 3.38 3–3 Axel Stordahl / Noelle Owen 2.90 3–3	39%	5–13 (28%)	−2.0
7	Boston College Eagles	4	10.24 school +0.26	Peter Joslin / Sara Schumann 3.17 4–8 Michaela O'Brien / Matt Budington 3.33 1–8 Colleen O'Brien / Chip Kreuzkamp 3.38 1–8 Peter Busch / Jack Redmond 3.46 3–6 Michael Kirkman / Matt Budington 3.32 3–3 Caroline Sibilly / Katelyn Mcgauley 3.22 1–2 Colleen O'Brien / Libby Redmond 3.39 1–2 Michaela O'Brien / Sara Schumann 3.36 1–2	47%	5–13 (28%)	−3.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
4	University of Rhode Island	9.09	10.55	9–9	3.9	+1.46	5.7	<1%
5	Tufts University	9.52	9.97	7–11	5.5	+0.45	0.5	27%
3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	10.77	10.77	11–7	11.0	+0.01	0.0	61%
1	Yale University	11.63	11.58	14–4	14.1	−0.05	0.0	67%
2	Roger Williams University	11.31	10.99	12–6	13.0	−0.32	0.2	81%
6	College of Charleston	9.85	9.26	5–13	7.0	−0.59	0.8	91%
7	Boston College	10.24	9.23	5–13	8.5	−1.00	2.5	98%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Kerem Erkmen	University of Rhode Island	3.51	4.97	9–9	3.9	+1.46	5.7	<1%
Ben Mueller	Tufts University	3.33	3.78	7–11	5.5	+0.45	0.5	27%
Benjamin Dufour	College of Charleston	3.38	3.14	3–3	3.3	−0.24	0.1	76%
Peter Joslin	Boston College	3.17	2.92	3–6	3.4	−0.25	0.1	76%
Aidan Hoogland	Roger Williams University	3.58	3.27	12–6	13.0	−0.32	0.2	81%
Carlos De Castro	Roger Williams University	3.89	3.57	12–6	13.0	−0.32	0.2	81%
Axel Stordahl	College of Charleston	2.98	2.39	5–13	7.0	−0.59	0.8	91%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	79%
1	2	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	77%
1	3	University of Rhode Island	Boston College	24%	upset
1	4	Yale University	College of Charleston	85%
1	5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Roger Williams University	40%	upset
1	6	Boston College	Tufts University	67%
1	7	Yale University	University of Rhode Island	93%
1	8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	College of Charleston	72%
1	9	Roger Williams University	Boston College	76%
1	10	University of Rhode Island	Tufts University	40%	upset
1	11	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	69%
1	12	College of Charleston	Boston College	43%	upset
1	13	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	91%
1	14	Tufts University	Yale University	10%	upset
1	15	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston College	63%
1	16	University of Rhode Island	College of Charleston	32%	upset
1	17	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	87%
1	18	Yale University	Boston College	76%
1	19	University of Rhode Island	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	16%	upset
1	20	Tufts University	College of Charleston	42%	upset
1	21	Yale University	Roger Williams University	58%
2	22	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	79%
2	23	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	23%	upset
2	24	University of Rhode Island	Boston College	24%	upset
2	25	Yale University	College of Charleston	85%
2	26	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Roger Williams University	40%	upset
2	27	Boston College	Tufts University	66%
2	28	University of Rhode Island	Yale University	7%	upset
2	29	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	College of Charleston	72%
2	30	Roger Williams University	Boston College	76%
2	31	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	60%
2	32	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	69%
2	33	College of Charleston	Boston College	43%	upset
2	34	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	91%
2	35	Yale University	Tufts University	90%
2	36	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	37%	upset
2	37	College of Charleston	University of Rhode Island	68%
2	38	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	13%	upset
2	39	Yale University	Boston College	76%
2	40	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	84%
2	41	Tufts University	College of Charleston	42%	upset
2	42	Yale University	Roger Williams University	58%
3	43	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	79%
3	44	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	77%
3	45	University of Rhode Island	Boston College	25%	upset
3	46	College of Charleston	Yale University	15%	upset
3	47	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	60%
3	48	Boston College	Tufts University	66%
3	49	Yale University	University of Rhode Island	93%
3	50	College of Charleston	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	28%	upset
3	51	Roger Williams University	Boston College	76%
3	52	University of Rhode Island	Tufts University	40%	upset
3	53	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Yale University	31%	upset
3	54	Boston College	College of Charleston	57%
3	55	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	91%
3	56	Yale University	Tufts University	90%
3	57	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston College	63%
3	58	University of Rhode Island	College of Charleston	32%	upset
3	59	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	87%
3	60	Yale University	Boston College	76%
3	61	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	84%
3	62	Tufts University	College of Charleston	42%	upset
3	63	Yale University	Roger Williams University	58%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Hawks	Bears	Rams	Jumbos	Cougars	Eagles
Yale University Bulldogs	5–1	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4–2	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	4–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	2–4	W	L	L	L	✕	W	L
College of Charleston Cougars	1–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Boston College Eagles	1–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Hawks	Bears	Rams	Jumbos	Cougars	Eagles
Yale University Bulldogs	5–1	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–3	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–3	L	W	✕	W	L	W	L
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–4	W	L	L	✕	L	L	W
Tufts University Jumbos	4–2	L	W	W	W	✕	W	L
College of Charleston Cougars	2–4	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Boston College Eagles	2–4	L	L	W	L	W	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Hawks	Bears	Rams	Jumbos	Cougars	Eagles
Yale University Bulldogs	4–2	✕	W	L	W	W	L	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4–2	W	L	✕	W	W	L	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	3–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	1–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L
College of Charleston Cougars	2–4	W	L	W	L	L	✕	L
Boston College Eagles	2–4	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
2	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
3	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
4	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
5	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
6	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
7	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
8	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
9	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
10	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
11	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
12	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
13	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
14	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
15	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
16	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
17	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
18	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
19	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
20	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
21	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
22	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
23	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
24	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
25	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
26	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
27	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
28	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
29	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
30	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
31	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
32	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
33	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
34	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
35	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
36	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
37	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
38	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
39	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
40	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
41	Jumbos	1-3-6	def.	Cougars	2-4-5
42	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
43	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
44	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
45	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
46	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6
47	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
48	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
49	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
50	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
51	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
52	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
53	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
54	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Cougars	2-4-5
55	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
56	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
57	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
58	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
59	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Jumbos	1-4-6
60	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
61	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
62	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
63	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Jack Egan '25 Morgan Pinckney '27 Stephan Baker '26 Teddy Nicolosi '24	Nathan Sih '25 Jessi Avila-Shah '25 Ashley Highland '27 Elle Sykes '27 Sarah Moeder '26
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Aidan Hoogland '24 Carlos De Castro '26 Kyle Pfrang '26	Hank Bailey '24 Jed Lory '27 Carly Kiss '25 Peter Cotoia '26 Claire Buckley '25
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Colman Schofield '25 Daniel Unangst '24 Nicholas Reeser '25	Laura Slovensky '25 Lauren O'Neill '24 Charles Pohl '26 Daniel Neville '25
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Henry Lee '24 Kerem Erkmen '25 Tyler Nash '26	Eric Pohl '28 Abbie Chipps '25 Miles Bailey '25 Sadie Thomas '25
Tufts University	Jumbos	Ben Mueller '26 Trevor Davis '24 Wyatt Bischoff '27	Henry Tindall '25 William Eykyn '25 Cindy Wang '25 Celia Byrne '24
College of Charleston	Cougars	Axel Stordahl '24 Benjamin Dufour '26 Brandon Geller '23 Noah Zittrer '26	Lucy Klempen '24 Noelle Owen '24 Garrett Grenauer '24 Aidan Iaconis '26
Boston College	Eagles	Caroline Sibilly '26 Colleen O'Brien '24 Michael Kirkman '25 Michaela O'Brien '24 Peter Busch '26 Peter Joslin '26	Katelyn Mcgauley '24 Chip Kreuzkamp '24 Libby Redmond '24 Matt Budington '25 Sara Schumann '25 Jack Redmond '26

Conditions — 03/30/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 43% · Pressure 1003.2 hPa

Temperature

48°F

↑ 54°F ↓ 35°F

Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

12.0 kn

avg · max 14.7 kn

Gusts to 27.8 kn

From WNW (281°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover4% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity43% Pressure1003.2 hPa

What this breeze does at MIT — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at MIT in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled fleet-race days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu