College Sailing Team Race National Championship

HostTulane
Date05/16/2022
TypeNational Championship Finals
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	22–3
2	Roger Williams University	Hawks	19–6
3	Georgetown University	Hoyas	16–9
4	Stanford University	Cardinal	16–9
5	Boston College	Eagles	14–8
6	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	14–8
7	Harvard University	Crimson	12–10
8	Tulane University	Green Wave	9–13
9	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	8–7
10	Dartmouth College	Big Green	7–8
11	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	4–11
12	College of Charleston	Cougars	4–11
13	Tufts University	Jumbos	3–12
14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	3–12
15	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	3–12
16	University of Wisconsin	Badgers	0–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 18,687 team race matches sailed before 2022-05-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 113 of 155 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.510 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.36 ± 0.19: an orderly event, more orderly than 81% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	11.58 school +0.30	Jack Egan / Catherine Webb 3.70 Shawn Harvey / Sonia Lingos-Utley 4.04 Teddy Nicolosi / Anisha Arcot 3.53	76%	22–3 (88%)	+3.1
2	Roger Williams University Hawks	4	10.99 school +0.35	Spencer Cartwright / Rachel Holick 3.68 Cameron Wood / Emily Gildea 3.52 Aidan Hoogland / Molly Matthews 3.42	62%	19–6 (76%)	+3.4
3	Georgetown University Hoyas	9	10.38 school +0.28	Mariner Fagan / Jack Hogan 3.31 Jack Reiter / Annabelle Ayer 3.54 Scott Mais / Addi Harris 3.22	48%	16–9 (64%)	+4.1
4	Stanford University Cardinal	3	11.20 school +0.48	Jack Parkin / Sammy Pickell 3.86 Wiley Rogers / Anaclare Sole 3.38 Michelle Lahrkamp / Patricia Gerli 3.46	67%	16–9 (64%)	−0.8
5	Boston College Eagles	8	10.51 school +0.29	Jack Denatale / Michaela O'Brien 3.28 13–8 Robert Hunter / Sara Schumann 3.29 7–7 Sophia Reineke / Emma Batcher 3.64 7–5 Robert Hunter / Colleen O'Brien 3.31 7–1 Sophia Reineke / Sara Schumann 3.58 7–1 Sophia Reineke / Laura Ferraris 3.69 0–2 Colleen O'Brien / Michaela O'Brien 3.27 1–0	53%	14–8 (64%)	+2.3
6	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6	10.56 school +0.47	Gray Benson / Kimmie Leonard 3.20 Olivia De Olazarra / Ryan Wahba 3.00 Jc Hermus / Fiona Lobon 3.86	54%	14–8 (64%)	+2.1
7	Harvard University Crimson	5	10.85 school +0.26	Henry Burnes / Christopher Wang 3.38 Dylan Ascencios / Alexandra Dorofeev 3.44 Lachlain Mcgranahan / Cassia Lee 3.74 12–10 Lachlain Mcgranahan / Marbella Marlo 3.80 1–0	62%	13–10 (57%)	−1.2
8	Tulane University Green Wave	11	10.01 home +0.38	Thad Lettsome / Grace Siwicki 3.05 Cameron Giblin / Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez 3.60 Asher Zittrer / Gillian Perrell 2.94	41%	9–13 (41%)	−0.1
9	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	12	9.46 school +0.26	Jordan Bruce / Shaanti Choi-Bose 3.46 Christopher Sharpless / Ella Marsden 2.89 6–3 Samuel Gavula / Kiki Bruzzi 2.80 3–3 Christopher Sharpless / Amelia Popp 2.89 2–3 Javier Garcon / Ella Marsden 2.98 2–3 Samuel Gavula / Amelia Popp 2.67 3–2 Christopher Sharpless / Joshua Zeelander 3.08 0–2	34%	8–8 (50%)	+2.6
10	Dartmouth College Big Green	2	10.95 school +0.45	Maddie Hawkins / Yumi Yoshiyasu 3.49 Robert Bragg / Eloise Burn 3.75 5–5 William Michels / Reese Bragg 3.24 3–3 William Michels / Aisling Sullivan 3.46 2–4 Robert Bragg / Reese Bragg 3.67 2–3 James Paul / Reese Bragg 2.98 2–1	67%	7–8 (47%)	−3.1
11	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	14	9.17 school −0.20	David Eastwood / Kyla Murphy 3.28 Chris Kayda / Sydney Aguirre 3.10 Sidney Gathrid / Julia Roudebush 2.98	29%	4–11 (27%)	−0.3
12	College of Charleston Cougars	13	9.38 school +0.63	Axel Stordahl / Lucy Klempen 2.94 3–8 Brandon Geller / Kalea Woodard 3.16 3–7 Pierce Ornstein / Noelle Owen 2.38 1–7 Brandon Geller / Lucy Klempen 3.27 1–3 Max Anker / Noelle Owen 2.91 2–2 Max Anker / Anna Sherry 2.95 1–2 Axel Stordahl / Noelle Owen 2.82 1–2 Brandon Geller / Anna Sherry 3.18 0–1 Max Anker / Kalea Woodard 2.92 0–1	33%	4–11 (27%)	−0.9
13	Tufts University Jumbos	7	10.33 school +0.15	Samuel Merson / Celia Byrne 3.33 Alex Fasolo / Amelia Carlson 3.35 Ansgar Jordan / Ann Sheridan 3.50 3–11 Ansgar Jordan / George Sidamon-Eristoff 3.37 0–1	53%	3–12 (20%)	−5.0
14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	10	9.92 school +0.12	Jake Vickers / Katherine Klempen 3.43 Will Murray / Tory Mileti 3.12 Charles Carraway / Sarah Smith 3.22	44%	3–12 (20%)	−3.6
15	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	15	8.89 school +0.30	Katherine Bennett / Emma Gronda 2.56 Charlie Anderson / Ellie Sekowski 2.67 Owen Hennessey / Sam Muir 3.33	23%	3–12 (20%)	−0.5
16	University of Wisconsin Badgers	16	8.27 school −0.35	Christian Spencer / Allison Hansen 3.04 Samuel Bartel / Lucas Quinn 2.86 0–13 Jonathan Bailey / Cristina Dombrowski 2.71 0–13 Samuel Bartel / Noah Hallerman 2.84 0–2 Jonathan Bailey / George Lockwood 2.63 0–2	15%	0–15 (0%)	−2.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Yale University	11.58	12.49	22–3	18.9	+0.91	1.9	10%
9	University of Pennsylvania	9.46	10.27	8–8	5.4	+0.81	1.5	11%
3	Georgetown University	10.38	11.15	16–9	11.9	+0.77	2.2	6%
2	Roger Williams University	10.99	11.72	19–6	15.5	+0.73	1.8	9%
5	Boston College	10.51	11.02	14–8	11.7	+0.50	0.8	20%
6	U. S. Naval Academy	10.56	11.02	14–8	11.9	+0.46	0.7	23%
8	Tulane University	10.01	10.00	9–13	9.1	−0.01	0.0	60%
11	University of California at Santa Barbara	9.17	9.06	4–11	4.3	−0.11	0.0	68%
4	Stanford University	11.20	11.05	16–9	16.8	−0.15	0.1	72%
15	St. Mary's College of Maryland	8.89	8.66	3–12	3.5	−0.23	0.1	74%
7	Harvard University	10.85	10.60	13–10	14.2	−0.25	0.2	79%
12	College of Charleston	9.38	9.03	4–11	4.9	−0.35	0.2	80%
10	Dartmouth College	10.95	9.95	7–8	10.1	−1.00	2.3	98%
14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	9.92	8.55	3–12	6.6	−1.36	3.3	99%
13	Tufts University	10.33	8.52	3–12	8.0	−1.80	6.1	>99%
16	University of Wisconsin	8.27	5.27	0–15	2.2	≤−3.00	3.3	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Samuel Gavula	University of Pennsylvania	2.80	3.95	6–5	3.3	+1.16	2.3	7%
Spencer Cartwright	Roger Williams University	3.68	4.41	19–6	15.5	+0.73	1.8	9%
Aidan Hoogland	Roger Williams University	3.42	4.15	19–6	15.5	+0.73	1.8	9%
Sophia Reineke	Boston College	3.64	4.14	14–8	11.7	+0.50	0.8	20%
Jc Hermus	U. S. Naval Academy	3.86	4.32	14–8	11.9	+0.46	0.7	23%
Asher Zittrer	Tulane University	2.94	2.93	9–13	9.1	−0.01	0.0	60%
Sidney Gathrid	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.98	2.86	4–11	4.3	−0.11	0.0	68%
James Paul	Dartmouth College	2.98	2.80	2–1	2.1	−0.18	0.0	85%
Charlie Anderson	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.67	2.44	3–12	3.5	−0.23	0.1	74%
Axel Stordahl	College of Charleston	2.94	2.70	4–10	4.6	−0.24	0.1	75%
Dylan Ascencios	Harvard University	3.44	3.19	13–10	14.2	−0.25	0.2	79%
Alex Fasolo	Tufts University	3.35	1.54	3–12	8.0	−1.80	6.1	>99%
Ansgar Jordan	Tufts University	3.50	1.69	3–12	8.0	−1.80	6.1	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Yale University	Boston College	73%
1	2	Georgetown University	Stanford University	30%	upset
1	3	College of Charleston	University of Wisconsin	70%
1	4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of California at Santa Barbara	68%
1	5	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	61%
1	6	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	49%	upset
1	7	Tulane University	University of Pennsylvania	60%
1	8	Tufts University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	81%
1	9	Yale University	College of Charleston	92%
1	10	Stanford University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	78%
1	11	Boston College	University of Wisconsin	90%
1	12	Georgetown University	University of California at Santa Barbara	77%
1	13	U. S. Naval Academy	Tulane University	63%
1	14	Harvard University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	88%
1	15	Roger Williams University	University of Pennsylvania	80%
1	16	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	65%
1	17	Yale University	University of Wisconsin	96%
1	18	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	88%
1	19	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	49%	upset
1	20	Georgetown University	Harvard University	38%	upset
1	21	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	87%
1	22	Dartmouth College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	74%
1	23	Yale University	University of Pennsylvania	88%
1	24	Stanford University	Tufts University	70%
1	25	Boston College	Tulane University	63%
1	26	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	82%
1	27	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Wisconsin	91%
1	28	Harvard University	University of California at Santa Barbara	84%
1	29	University of Pennsylvania	College of Charleston	61%
1	30	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Tufts University	40%	upset
1	31	Roger Williams University	Yale University	36%	upset
1	32	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	56%
1	33	Tulane University	University of Wisconsin	85%
1	34	University of California at Santa Barbara	St. Mary's College of Maryland	57%
1	35	Boston College	University of Pennsylvania	70%
1	36	Georgetown University	Tufts University	51%
1	37	U. S. Naval Academy	College of Charleston	81%
1	38	Harvard University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	72%
1	39	Yale University	Tulane University	83%
1	40	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	91%
1	41	University of Pennsylvania	University of Wisconsin	79%
1	42	Tufts University	University of California at Santa Barbara	76%
1	43	Roger Williams University	Boston College	61%
1	44	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	36%	upset
1	45	Tulane University	College of Charleston	69%
1	46	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	26%	upset
1	47	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	74%
1	48	Stanford University	Harvard University	59%
1	49	Roger Williams University	University of Wisconsin	94%
1	50	Dartmouth College	University of California at Santa Barbara	85%
1	51	Boston College	College of Charleston	80%
1	52	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	61%
1	53	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	72%
1	54	Harvard University	Tufts University	62%
1	55	Roger Williams University	Tulane University	73%
1	56	Dartmouth College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	86%
1	57	Stanford University	Boston College	66%
1	58	Yale University	University of California at Santa Barbara	92%
1	59	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	78%
1	60	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	65%
1	61	University of Pennsylvania	Tufts University	26%	upset
1	62	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	89%
1	63	Stanford University	Tulane University	77%
1	64	Harvard University	University of Wisconsin	93%
1	65	Boston College	Dartmouth College	35%	upset
1	66	Yale University	Georgetown University	77%
1	67	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Pennsylvania	47%	upset
1	68	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	44%	upset
1	69	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	66%
1	70	Harvard University	Tulane University	70%
1	71	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	66%
1	72	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Wisconsin	65%
1	73	Georgetown University	Boston College	46%	upset
1	74	University of Pennsylvania	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	35%	upset
1	75	Stanford University	College of Charleston	82%
1	76	Yale University	Harvard University	67%
1	77	Dartmouth College	U. S. Naval Academy	63%
1	78	Tufts University	University of Wisconsin	89%
1	79	Tulane University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	75%
1	80	Roger Williams University	University of California at Santa Barbara	86%
1	81	University of Pennsylvania	Georgetown University	25%	upset
1	82	Boston College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	63%
1	83	Dartmouth College	College of Charleston	80%
1	84	U. S. Naval Academy	Tufts University	55%
1	85	Yale University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	94%
1	86	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	54%
1	87	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Wisconsin	71%
1	88	Stanford University	University of Pennsylvania	87%
1	89	Tulane University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	52%
1	90	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	54%
1	91	Boston College	Tufts University	53%
1	92	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	48%	upset
1	93	College of Charleston	Harvard University	23%	upset
1	94	Yale University	Stanford University	59%
1	95	Tulane University	University of California at Santa Barbara	70%
1	96	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Wisconsin	84%
1	97	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	83%
1	98	University of Pennsylvania	Dartmouth College	16%	upset
1	99	College of Charleston	Tufts University	33%	upset
1	100	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	45%	upset
1	101	U. S. Naval Academy	Harvard University	43%	upset
1	102	Georgetown University	University of Wisconsin	89%
1	103	Tulane University	Dartmouth College	24%	upset
1	104	Yale University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	84%
1	105	University of California at Santa Barbara	College of Charleston	38%	upset
1	106	University of Pennsylvania	St. Mary's College of Maryland	63%
1	107	Harvard University	Boston College	59%
1	108	Georgetown University	Roger Williams University	35%	upset
1	109	Dartmouth College	University of Wisconsin	92%
1	110	Yale University	Tufts University	77%
1	111	U. S. Naval Academy	University of California at Santa Barbara	80%
1	112	St. Mary's College of Maryland	College of Charleston	32%	upset
1	113	University of Pennsylvania	Harvard University	19%	upset
1	114	Tulane University	Georgetown University	41%	upset
1	115	Stanford University	University of Wisconsin	95%
1	116	Roger Williams University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	74%
1	117	Yale University	Dartmouth College	71%
1	118	Boston College	University of California at Santa Barbara	78%
1	119	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	84%
1	120	Tulane University	Tufts University	45%	upset
2	122	Georgetown University	Boston College	46%	upset
2	123	U. S. Naval Academy	Stanford University	35%	upset
2	124	Yale University	Tulane University	83%
2	125	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	47%	upset
2	126	Georgetown University	Stanford University	31%	upset
2	127	Yale University	Boston College	73%
2	128	U. S. Naval Academy	Harvard University	43%	upset
2	129	Roger Williams University	Tulane University	73%
2	130	Stanford University	Yale University	41%	upset
2	131	Harvard University	Georgetown University	62%
2	132	Boston College	Tulane University	63%
2	133	U. S. Naval Academy	Roger Williams University	39%	upset
2	134	Yale University	Harvard University	67%
2	135	Stanford University	Tulane University	77%
2	136	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	46%	upset
2	137	Roger Williams University	Boston College	61%
2	138	Harvard University	Tulane University	70%
2	139	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	73%
2	140	Boston College	Stanford University	34%	upset
2	141	Roger Williams University	Georgetown University	65%
2	142	U. S. Naval Academy	Tulane University	63%
2	143	Boston College	Harvard University	41%	upset
2	144	Georgetown University	Yale University	23%	upset
2	145	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	55%
2	146	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	49%	upset
2	147	Georgetown University	Tulane University	59%
2	148	Harvard University	Stanford University	42%	upset
2	149	Yale University	Roger Williams University	64%
3	150	Roger Williams University	Georgetown University	65%
3	151	Yale University	Stanford University	59%
3	152	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	45%	upset
3	153	Yale University	Georgetown University	77%
3	154	Stanford University	Georgetown University	69%
3	155	Yale University	Roger Williams University	64%
8	121	Harvard University	University of Pennsylvania	81%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Hawks	Hoyas	Cardinal	Eagles	Midshipmen	Crimson	Wave	Quakers	Green	Gauchos	Cougars	Jumbos	Statesmen	Seahawks	Badgers
Yale University Bulldogs	14–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	14–1	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	11–4	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	12–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	10–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	10–5	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	8–7	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	9–6	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	8–7	L	L	W	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	7–8	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	4–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	4–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W
Tufts University Jumbos	3–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	L	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers	0–15	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Hawks	Hoyas	Cardinal	Eagles	Midshipmen	Crimson	Wave
Yale University Bulldogs	5–2	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–4	L	✕	W	L	W	L	L	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–2	W	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W
Stanford University Cardinal	3–4	W	W	L	✕	L	L	L	W
Boston College Eagles	4–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–3	L	W	L	W	L	✕	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	4–3	L	W	W	W	L	L	✕	W
Tulane University Green Wave	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Hawks	Hoyas	Cardinal
Yale University Bulldogs	3–0	✕	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–1	L	✕	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	0–3	L	L	✕	L
Stanford University Cardinal	1–2	L	L	W	✕

Round 8

	Team	Rec.	Crimson	Quakers
	Harvard University Crimson	1–0	✕	W
	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	0–1	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
2	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Cardinal	2-5-6
3	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
4	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
5	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
6	Crimson	2-3-5	def.	Big Green	1-4-6
7	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
8	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
9	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
10	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
11	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
12	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
13	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
14	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
15	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
16	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
17	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
18	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Gauchos	3-5-6
19	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
20	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
21	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
22	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
23	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
24	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
25	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
26	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
27	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
28	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Gauchos	3-5-6
29	Quakers	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6
30	Statesmen	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
31	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
32	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
33	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
34	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
35	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
36	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
37	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
38	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Statesmen	2-5-6
39	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
40	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
41	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
42	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
43	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
44	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
45	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
46	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
47	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	1-4-6
48	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
49	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
50	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
51	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
52	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
53	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
54	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
55	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
56	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
57	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
58	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Gauchos	3-5-6
59	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
60	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
61	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
62	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
63	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
64	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
65	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
66	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
67	Gauchos	1-3-4	def.	Quakers	2-5-6
68	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Statesmen	2-3-6
69	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
70	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
71	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
72	Seahawks	2-3-5	def.	Badgers	1-4-6
73	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
74	Quakers	1-4-5	def.	Statesmen	2-3-6
75	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
76	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
77	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-3-6
78	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
79	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
80	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
81	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
82	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
83	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
84	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
85	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
86	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
87	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
88	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
89	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
90	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
91	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
92	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
93	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
94	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
95	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos	3-4-5
96	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
97	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
98	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
99	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
100	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
101	Midshipmen	1-3-6	def.	Crimson	2-4-5
102	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
103	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
104	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
105	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
106	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
107	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
108	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
109	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
110	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
111	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
112	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
113	Quakers	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6
114	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
115	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
116	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
117	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
118	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
119	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
120	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
122	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
123	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
124	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
125	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
126	Hoyas	2-3-5	def.	Cardinal	1-4-6
127	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
128	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Crimson	2-4-6
129	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
130	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
131	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Hoyas	2-3-6
132	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
133	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
134	Bulldogs	1-3-6	def.	Crimson	2-4-5
135	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
136	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-5
137	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
138	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
139	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
140	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
141	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Hoyas	1-4-6
142	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
143	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Crimson	1-4-6
144	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
145	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
146	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-6
147	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
148	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Cardinal	2-4-6
149	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
150	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
151	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
152	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
153	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
154	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
155	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
121	Crimson	1-3-6	def.	Quakers	2-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Jack Egan '25 Shawn Harvey '22 Teddy Nicolosi '24	Catherine Webb '23 Sonia Lingos-Utley '22 Anisha Arcot '23
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Aidan Hoogland '24 Cameron Wood '22 Spencer Cartwright '22	Molly Matthews '23 Emily Gildea '21 Rachel Holick '22
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Jack Reiter '22 Mariner Fagan '24 Scott Mais '23	Annabelle Ayer '22 Jack Hogan '22 Addi Harris '24
Stanford University	Cardinal	Jack Parkin '21 Michelle Lahrkamp '23 Wiley Rogers '22	Sammy Pickell '22 Patricia Gerli '23 Anaclare Sole '23
Boston College	Eagles	Colleen O'Brien '24 Jack Denatale '22 Robert Hunter '22 Sophia Reineke '22	Michaela O'Brien '24 Sara Schumann '25 Colleen O'Brien '24 Laura Ferraris '22 Emma Batcher '22
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Gray Benson '22 Jc Hermus '22 Olivia De Olazarra '22	Kimmie Leonard '22 Fiona Lobon '22 Ryan Wahba '25
Harvard University	Crimson	Dylan Ascencios '24 Henry Burnes '22 Lachlain Mcgranahan '24	Alexandra Dorofeev '25 Christopher Wang '23 Cassia Lee '23 Marbella Marlo '24
Tulane University	Green Wave	Asher Zittrer '23 Cameron Giblin '23 Thad Lettsome '24	Gillian Perrell '24 Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez '24 Grace Siwicki '22
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Christopher Sharpless '23 Javier Garcon '25 Jordan Bruce '24 Samuel Gavula '24	Amelia Popp '25 Ella Marsden '24 Joshua Zeelander '24 Shaanti Choi-Bose '24 Kiki Bruzzi '25
Dartmouth College	Big Green	James Paul '23 Maddie Hawkins '24 Robert Bragg '23 William Michels '25	Reese Bragg '25 Yumi Yoshiyasu '24 Eloise Burn '21 Aisling Sullivan '22
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	Chris Kayda '23 David Eastwood '22 Sidney Gathrid '22	Sydney Aguirre '22 Kyla Murphy '23 Julia Roudebush '23
College of Charleston	Cougars	Axel Stordahl '24 Brandon Geller '23 Max Anker '24 Pierce Ornstein '22	Lucy Klempen '24 Noelle Owen '24 Kalea Woodard '24 Anna Sherry '23
Tufts University	Jumbos	Alex Fasolo '22 Ansgar Jordan '22 Samuel Merson '22	Amelia Carlson '24 Ann Sheridan '22 George Sidamon-Eristoff '22 Celia Byrne '24
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Charles Carraway '22 Jake Vickers '22 Will Murray '24	Sarah Smith '22 Katherine Klempen '22 Tory Mileti '22
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Charlie Anderson '25 Katherine Bennett '22 Owen Hennessey '25	Ellie Sekowski '23 Emma Gronda '22 Sam Muir '22
University of Wisconsin	Badgers	Christian Spencer '22 Jonathan Bailey '22 Samuel Bartel '22	Allison Hansen '23 Cristina Dombrowski '23 George Lockwood '25 Lucas Quinn '23 Noah Hallerman '23

Conditions — 05/16/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 69% · Pressure 1014.0 hPa

Temperature

81°F

↑ 90°F ↓ 68°F

Feels like 88°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.5 kn

avg · max 10.0 kn

Gusts to 21.6 kn

From WNW (295°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover58% Sunshine8.0 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1014.0 hPa Rain0.89 in

What this breeze does at Tulane — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Tulane in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.10)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled fleet-race days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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