| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Boston College | Eagles 1 | 9–1 |
| 2 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs 1 | 8–2 |
| 3 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks 2 | 7–3 |
| 4 | |
Boston College | Eagles 2 | 4–6 |
| 5 | |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs 2 | 2–8 |
| 6 | |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks 1 | 0–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 15,316 team race matches sailed before 2021-03-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 22 of 30 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.550 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.44 ± 0.33: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 12% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 | 6.64 | 9.29 | 8–2 | 4.1 | +2.66 | 7.1 | <1% |
| 4 | Boston College Eagles 2 | 5.98 | 6.71 | 4–6 | 2.9 | +0.73 | 0.6 | 29% |
| 1 | Boston College Eagles 1 | 9.11 | 9.57 | 9–1 | 8.6 | +0.46 | 0.1 | 58% |
| 5 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 | 5.27 | 5.64 | 2–8 | 1.5 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 3 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 8.97 | 7.82 | 7–3 | 8.4 | −1.16 | 1.2 | 97% |
| 6 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 6.78 | 3.78 | 0–10 | 4.5 | ≤−3.00 | 10.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Glenn | Old Dominion University | 1.43 | 4.09 | 8–2 | 4.1 | +2.66 | 7.1 | <1% |
| Chip Kreuzkamp | Boston College | 1.41 | 2.14 | 4–6 | 2.9 | +0.73 | 0.6 | 29% |
| Lourdes Gallo | Boston College | 1.68 | 2.40 | 4–6 | 2.9 | +0.73 | 0.6 | 29% |
| Hannah Pokorny | Old Dominion University | 1.96 | 2.33 | 2–8 | 1.5 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 47% |
| Keiran James Golden | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 2.27 | 1.11 | 7–3 | 8.4 | −1.16 | 1.2 | 97% |
| Lewis Cooper | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 3.46 | 2.30 | 7–3 | 8.4 | −1.16 | 1.2 | 97% |
| Hunter Cutting | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 1.83 | -1.17 | 0–10 | 4.5 | ≤−3.00 | 10.0 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles 1 | 6–4 | ✕ | W | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 | 6–4 | L | ✕ | L | L | ✕ | L |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 3–7 | L | W | ✕ | L | W | ✕ |
| Boston College Eagles 2 | 6–4 | ✕ | W | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 | 6–4 | L | ✕ | L | L | ✕ | L |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 3–7 | L | W | ✕ | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles 1 | 7–3 | ✕ | W | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 | 4–6 | L | ✕ | L | L | ✕ | L |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 4–6 | L | W | ✕ | L | W | ✕ |
| Boston College Eagles 2 | 7–3 | ✕ | W | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 | 4–6 | L | ✕ | L | L | ✕ | L |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 4–6 | L | W | ✕ | L | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Eagles 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Monarchs 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Seahawks 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Monarchs 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Eagles 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Eagles 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Monarchs 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Monarchs 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Seahawks 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Monarchs 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Eagles 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Monarchs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Seahawks 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Eagles 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Monarchs 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Eagles 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Monarchs 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Seahawks 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Eagles 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Seahawks 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Monarchs 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 1-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Eagles 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Eagles 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Monarchs 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Monarchs 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Seahawks 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Eagles 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Eagles 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Monarchs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Seahawks 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Eagles 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Monarchs 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Eagles 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs 2 | 2-5-6 DNS |
| 30 | |
Seahawks 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Boston College | Eagles 1 | Colleen O'Brien '24 Jack Denatale '22 Robert Hunter '22 |
John (Jack) Plavan '23 Michaela O'Brien '24 Nicole Moeder '22 |
|
Old Dominion University | Monarchs 1 | Bridget Groble '22 John Glenn '22 Parker Purrington '24 |
Abigail Tutt '21 Megan Geith '24 Katherine Barton '23 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks 2 | Gloria Kevliciute '21 Keiran James Golden '24 Lewis Cooper '21 |
Laura Dennison '21 Katherine Shermock '24 Ellie Sekowski '23 Sophia Taczak '21 |
|
Boston College | Eagles 2 | Chip Kreuzkamp '24 Graham Ness '23 Lourdes Gallo '24 |
Lilly Mathieu '23 Emma Batcher '22 Elizabeth Russell '21 |
|
Old Dominion University | Monarchs 2 | Chris Robertson '23 Elizabeth Gildea '24 Hannah Pokorny '21 |
Myles Murphy '22 Jefferson Elkin '24 Emily Harrison '21 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks 1 | Hunter Cutting '21 Katherine Bennett '22 Lucas Masiello '23 |
Sam Muir '22 Rachel O'Neill '24 Dexter Mueller '24 Allison Gingerich '21 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
