Aaron Szambecki Team Race

HostOld Dominion
Date03/26/2022
TypeCross Regional
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Boston College	Eagles	12–1
2	Tulane University	Green Wave	10–3
3	College of Charleston	Cougars	7–6
4	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	7–6
5	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	7–6
6	Georgetown University	Hoyas	6–7
7	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	4–8
8	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	4–8
9	Yale University	Bulldogs	4–8
10	Jacksonville University	Fins	2–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 17,267 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 43 of 66 matches (65%) with a log-loss of 0.635 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.35 ± 0.27: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 16% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Boston College Eagles	3	10.12 school +0.31	Jack Denatale / Laura Ferraris 3.40 Robert Hunter / Emma Batcher 3.33 Sophia Reineke / Declan Mcgranahan 3.03 11–1 Sophia Reineke / Katelyn Mcgauley 3.22 2–0	62%	13–1 (93%)	+4.3
2	Tulane University Green Wave	7	9.26	Cameron Giblin / Kit Stoll 3.52 4–4 Asher Zittrer / Brady Starck 2.87 4–4 Thad Lettsome / Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez 2.90 4–4 Cameron Giblin / Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez 3.46 6–0 Asher Zittrer / Gillian Perrell 2.88 6–0 Thad Lettsome / Grace Siwicki 2.92 6–0	41%	10–4 (71%)	+4.3
3	College of Charleston Cougars	6	9.46 school +0.54	Max Anker / Pierce Ornstein 3.00 4–4 Axel Stordahl / Lucy Klempen 2.94 4–4 Axel Stordahl / Jack Sutton 2.89 3–3 Brandon Geller / Kaelin Stock 2.93 3–3 Brandon Geller / Kalea Woodard 3.01 3–3 Max Anker / Jack Sutton 3.04 3–3 Brandon Geller / Jack Sutton 3.02 1–1	46%	7–7 (50%)	+0.5
4	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1	10.54 school +0.48	Gray Benson / Colin Macgillivray 3.23 4–3 Gray Benson / Kimmie Leonard 3.27 4–3 Jc Hermus / Fiona Lobon 3.74 4–3 Gavin Mcjones / Ryan Wahba 3.01 4–1 Jc Hermus / Jonah Hatt 3.72 4–1 Olivia De Olazarra / Ryan Wahba 3.12 2–3 Olivia De Olazarra / Jonah Hatt 3.08 2–2 Jc Hermus / Ryan Wahba 3.76 0–2	76%	8–6 (57%)	−2.7
5	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	5	9.64 school +0.31	Christopher Sharpless / Joshua Zeelander 3.17 Jordan Bruce / Laurentiu Taritsa 3.37 Samuel Gavula / Kiki Bruzzi 2.76	52%	7–7 (50%)	−0.2
6	Georgetown University Hoyas	2	10.61 school +0.35	Mariner Fagan / Jack Hogan 3.55 4–4 Jack Reiter / Annabelle Ayer 3.69 4–4 Scott Mais / Addi Harris 3.35 4–4 Edward Cook / Jack Hogan 2.96 2–2 Jack Reiter / Diego Escobar 3.67 2–2 Thomas Mccann / Annabelle Ayer 2.77 1–2 Mariner Fagan / Diego Escobar 3.52 1–1 Jack Reiter / Jack Hogan 3.70 1–1 Scott Mais / Annabelle Ayer 3.37 1–1 Thomas Mccann / Addi Harris 2.75 1–0	73%	7–7 (50%)	−3.3
7	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	4	9.29 school −0.16	David Eastwood / Tristan Richmond 3.35 Chris Kayda / Joseph Politi 3.11 Sidney Gathrid / Jake Zieba 2.98	55%	4–8 (33%)	−2.6
8	Old Dominion University Monarchs	8	8.20 school +0.32, home +0.32	Bridget Groble / Makalynne Dyer 2.88 3–4 Parker Purrington / Isabelle Kanach 3–4 Noyl Odom / Katherine Barton 2.46 3–4 Bridget Groble / Jefferson Elkin 2.91 1–4 Parker Purrington / Makalynne Dyer 1–4 John Glenn / Ethan Tutt 2.23 0–2 Noyl Odom / John Glenn 2.41 1–1 John Glenn / Andrew Ciszewski 2.15 0–1	31%	4–8 (33%)	+0.3
9	Yale University Bulldogs	10	8.03 school +0.29	Nicholas Davies / Becca Rose 2.99 1–6 Christophe Chaumont / Allison Rice 2.45 0–5 Petru Neagu / Catherine Cheung 1–4 Nicholas Davies / Helena Ware 2.87 3–1 Christophe Chaumont / Megan Grimes 2.48 3–1 Petru Neagu / Ximena Escobar 3–1 Petru Neagu / Sydney Zoehrer 0–2 Carmen Cowles / Ximena Escobar 3.34 0–2 Carmen Cowles / Helena Ware 3.33 1–1 Nicholas Davies / Catherine Cheung 2.89 0–1	27%	4–8 (33%)	+0.8
10	Jacksonville University Fins	9	8.00	Emily Allen / Grace Benzal 2.56 1–9 Matthew King / Josh Becker 2.78 2–7 Gordon Gurnell / Mia Porter 2.77 2–7 Matthew King / Mia Porter 2.81 0–3 Emily Allen / Maartje Van Dam 2.63 1–1 Maartje Van Dam / Caroline Bourgeois 2.12 0–2 Maartje Van Dam / Josh Becker 2.09 0–1	28%	2–10 (17%)	−1.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Boston College	10.12	12.41	13–1	8.7	+2.29	5.8	1%
2	Tulane University	9.26	10.78	10–4	5.7	+1.51	4.6	1%
9	Yale University	8.03	8.36	4–8	3.2	+0.34	0.2	41%
3	College of Charleston	9.46	9.65	7–7	6.5	+0.18	0.1	49%
8	Old Dominion University	8.20	8.32	4–8	3.7	+0.13	0.0	55%
5	University of Pennsylvania	9.64	9.57	7–7	7.2	−0.07	0.0	66%
10	Jacksonville University	8.00	7.16	2–10	3.4	−0.84	0.8	92%
4	U. S. Naval Academy	10.54	9.59	8–6	10.7	−0.95	1.9	97%
7	University of California at Santa Barbara	9.29	8.28	4–8	6.6	−1.01	1.8	97%
6	Georgetown University	10.61	9.38	7–7	10.3	−1.24	3.0	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Sophia Reineke	Boston College	3.03	5.32	13–1	8.7	+2.29	5.8	1%
Asher Zittrer	Tulane University	2.87	4.38	10–4	5.7	+1.51	4.6	1%
Petru Neagu	Yale University	1.96	2.54	4–7	2.8	+0.57	0.5	29%
Nicholas Davies	Yale University	2.99	3.33	4–8	3.2	+0.34	0.2	41%
Noyl Odom	Old Dominion University	2.46	2.78	4–5	3.4	+0.32	0.1	47%
Axel Stordahl	College of Charleston	2.94	3.12	7–7	6.5	+0.18	0.1	49%
Parker Purrington	Old Dominion University	2.28	2.40	4–8	3.7	+0.13	0.0	55%
Samuel Gavula	University of Pennsylvania	2.76	2.68	7–7	7.2	−0.07	0.0	66%
Edward Cook	Georgetown University	2.96	2.72	2–2	2.2	−0.24	0.0	78%
Thomas Mccann	Georgetown University	2.77	2.53	2–2	2.2	−0.24	0.0	78%
Carmen Cowles	Yale University	3.34	2.93	1–3	1.3	−0.41	0.1	81%
Jc Hermus	U. S. Naval Academy	3.74	2.79	8–6	10.7	−0.95	1.9	97%
Sidney Gathrid	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.98	1.97	4–8	6.6	−1.01	1.8	97%
John Glenn	Old Dominion University	2.23	-0.77	0–3	0.3	≤−3.00	0.5	>99%
Maartje Van Dam	Jacksonville University	2.12	-0.88	0–3	0.3	≤−3.00	0.5	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Georgetown University	Tulane University	84%
1	2	University of California at Santa Barbara	Jacksonville University	76%
1	3	Boston College	College of Charleston	67%
1	4	U. S. Naval Academy	Yale University	95%
1	5	University of Pennsylvania	Old Dominion University	85%
1	6	Georgetown University	University of California at Santa Barbara	61%
1	7	Tulane University	College of Charleston	48%	upset
1	8	Yale University	Jacksonville University	35%	upset
1	9	Boston College	University of Pennsylvania	61%
1	10	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	93%
1	11	College of Charleston	University of California at Santa Barbara	52%
1	12	Yale University	Georgetown University	10%	upset
1	13	Tulane University	University of Pennsylvania	41%	upset
1	14	U. S. Naval Academy	Jacksonville University	91%
1	15	Boston College	Old Dominion University	90%
1	16	College of Charleston	Yale University	85%
1	17	University of Pennsylvania	University of California at Santa Barbara	59%
1	18	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	34%	upset
1	19	Tulane University	Boston College	31%	upset
1	20	Old Dominion University	Jacksonville University	49%	upset
1	21	University of Pennsylvania	Yale University	87%
1	22	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	25%	upset
1	23	Boston College	University of California at Santa Barbara	69%
1	24	Georgetown University	Jacksonville University	94%
1	25	Tulane University	Old Dominion University	72%
1	26	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	72%
1	27	Boston College	Yale University	81%
1	28	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	80%
1	29	Tulane University	University of California at Santa Barbara	49%	upset
1	30	Old Dominion University	Georgetown University	7%	upset
1	31	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	39%	upset
1	32	University of Pennsylvania	Jacksonville University	90%
1	33	Tulane University	Yale University	56%
1	34	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	81%
1	35	University of California at Santa Barbara	Old Dominion University	73%
1	36	Boston College	Jacksonville University	93%
1	37	Tulane University	U. S. Naval Academy	20%	upset
1	38	University of Pennsylvania	Georgetown University	21%	upset
1	39	Yale University	University of California at Santa Barbara	34%	upset
1	40	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	77%
1	41	Tulane University	Jacksonville University	85%
1	42	Boston College	Georgetown University	33%	upset
1	43	U. S. Naval Academy	University of California at Santa Barbara	79%
1	44	University of Pennsylvania	College of Charleston	53%
1	45	Old Dominion University	Yale University	64%
4	49	Jacksonville University	University of California at Santa Barbara	24%	upset
4	50	Old Dominion University	Yale University	64%
4	54	University of California at Santa Barbara	Old Dominion University	72%
4	55	Yale University	Jacksonville University	39%	upset
4	59	University of California at Santa Barbara	Yale University	65%
4	60	Jacksonville University	Old Dominion University	48%	upset
6	46	College of Charleston	University of Pennsylvania	47%	upset
6	47	Boston College	Georgetown University	33%	upset
6	48	Tulane University	U. S. Naval Academy	20%	upset
6	51	Boston College	College of Charleston	67%
6	52	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	72%
6	53	Tulane University	Georgetown University	16%	upset
6	56	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	39%	upset
6	57	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	81%
6	58	University of Pennsylvania	Tulane University	59%
6	61	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	66%
6	62	Boston College	University of Pennsylvania	61%
6	63	College of Charleston	Tulane University	52%
6	64	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	79%
6	65	U. S. Naval Academy	College of Charleston	75%
6	66	Boston College	Tulane University	69%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Wave	Cougars	Midshipmen	Quakers	Hoyas	Gauchos	Monarchs	Bulldogs	Fins
Boston College Eagles	8–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	8–1	W	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	5–4	L	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–4	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	6–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–4	L	W	W	W	L	✕	W	L	L	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W
Jacksonville University Fins	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Gauchos	Monarchs	Bulldogs	Fins
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	2–1	✕	W	W	L
Old Dominion University Monarchs	1–2	L	✕	W	L
Yale University Bulldogs	1–2	L	L	✕	W
Jacksonville University Fins	2–1	W	W	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Wave	Cougars	Midshipmen	Quakers	Hoyas
Boston College Eagles	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	2–3	L	✕	L	W	L	W
College of Charleston Cougars	2–3	L	W	✕	L	W	L
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	1–4	L	W	L	L	✕	L
Georgetown University Hoyas	2–3	L	L	W	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Green Wave	2-4-6
2	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
3	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
4	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
5	Quakers	2-3-5	def.	Monarchs	1-4-6
6	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
7	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
8	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
9	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
10	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
11	Cougars	1-3-6	def.	Gauchos	2-4-5
12	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
13	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
14	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
15	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
16	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
17	Quakers	1-3-4	def.	Gauchos	2-5-6
18	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
19	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
20	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6 DNF
21	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
22	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
23	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos	3-4-5
24	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
25	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
26	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
27	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
28	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
29	Green Wave	1-3-4	def.	Gauchos	2-5-6
30	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
31	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-3-6
32	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
33	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
34	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Cougars	2-4-6
35	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
36	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
37	Green Wave	1-2-6 DNF	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
38	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
39	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Gauchos	3-5-6
40	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
41	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
42	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
43	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
44	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
45	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
49	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
50	Monarchs	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
54	Gauchos	2-3-5	def.	Monarchs	1-4-6
55	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
59	Gauchos	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
60	Fins	1-4-5	def.	Monarchs	2-3-6
46	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Quakers	1-4-6
47	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Hoyas	2-4-5
48	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
51	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
52	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
53	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
56	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
57	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
58	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
61	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
62	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
63	Cougars	1-3-6	def.	Green Wave	2-4-5
64	Hoyas		def.	Quakers
65	Midshipmen		def.	Cougars
66	Eagles		def.	Green Wave

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Boston College	Eagles	Jack Denatale '22 Robert Hunter '22 Sophia Reineke '22	Laura Ferraris '22 Emma Batcher '22 Katelyn Mcgauley '24 Declan Mcgranahan '22
Tulane University	Green Wave	Asher Zittrer '23 Cameron Giblin '23 Thad Lettsome '24	Brady Starck '25 Gillian Perrell '24 Kit Stoll '23 Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez '24 Grace Siwicki '22
College of Charleston	Cougars	Axel Stordahl '24 Brandon Geller '23 Max Anker '24	Lucy Klempen '24 Jack Sutton '22 Kalea Woodard '24 Kaelin Stock '22 Pierce Ornstein '22
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Gavin Mcjones '23 Gray Benson '22 Jc Hermus '22 Olivia De Olazarra '22	Ryan Wahba '25 Colin Macgillivray '23 Kimmie Leonard '22 Jonah Hatt '23 Fiona Lobon '22
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Christopher Sharpless '23 Jordan Bruce '24 Samuel Gavula '24	Joshua Zeelander '24 Laurentiu Taritsa '23 Kiki Bruzzi '25
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Edward Cook '23 Jack Reiter '22 Mariner Fagan '24 Scott Mais '23 Thomas Mccann '22	Jack Hogan '22 Diego Escobar '25 Annabelle Ayer '22 Addi Harris '24
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	Chris Kayda '23 David Eastwood '22 Sidney Gathrid '22	Joseph Politi '22 Tristan Richmond '22 Jake Zieba '22
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Bridget Groble '22 John Glenn '22 Noyl Odom '23 Parker Purrington '23	Makalynne Dyer '22 Jefferson Elkin '24 Andrew Ciszewski '25 Ethan Tutt '24 Katherine Barton '23 John Glenn '22 Isabelle Kanach '25
Yale University	Bulldogs	Carmen Cowles '25 Christophe Chaumont '23 Nicholas Davies '24 Petru Neagu '23	Ximena Escobar '25 Helena Ware '23 Megan Grimes '24 Allison Rice '23 Catherine Cheung '24 Becca Rose '22 Sydney Zoehrer '24
Jacksonville University	Fins	Emily Allen '25 Gordon Gurnell '23 Maartje Van Dam '23 Matthew King '24	Grace Benzal '23 Maartje Van Dam '23 Mia Porter '22 Caroline Bourgeois '22 Josh Becker '24

Conditions — 03/26/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 40% · Pressure 1003.5 hPa

Temperature

54°F

↑ 56°F ↓ 49°F

Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

17.9 kn

avg · max 21.2 kn

Gusts to 37.7 kn

From W (268°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover27% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity40% Pressure1003.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Old Dominion — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 18 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Old Dominion in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Old Dominion by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (76 labelled fleet-race days at Old Dominion).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu