| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Boston College | Eagles | 6–1 |
| 2 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 6–1 |
| 3 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 6–1 |
| 4 |  |
Tulane University | Green Wave | 4–3 |
| 5 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | 3–4 |
| 6 |  |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Mariners | 1–6 |
| 7 |  |
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | 1–6 |
| 8 |  |
University of Vermont | Catamounts | 1–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 16,723 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-12, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 27 of 32 matches (84%) with a log-loss of 0.409 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.19 ± 0.33: a typical event, more orderly than 65% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 9.66 | 11.17 | 7–2 | 5.2 | +1.51 | 1.9 | 11% |
| 1 | Boston College | 10.40 | 11.56 | 8–1 | 6.8 | +1.16 | 0.9 | 27% |
| 4 | Tulane University | 8.62 | 9.24 | 4–3 | 3.3 | +0.61 | 0.3 | 44% |
| 5 | Old Dominion University | 8.07 | 8.46 | 3–4 | 2.5 | +0.39 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 8 | University of Vermont | 7.16 | 6.74 | 1–6 | 1.4 | −0.43 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 6 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 7.37 | 6.50 | 1–7 | 1.9 | −0.87 | 0.5 | 90% |
| 7 | SUNY Maritime College | 8.09 | 7.15 | 2–6 | 3.2 | −0.95 | 0.8 | 94% |
| 3 | Georgetown University | 11.15 | 9.72 | 6–3 | 7.7 | −1.43 | 1.9 | 98% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Reineke | Boston College | 3.27 | 4.43 | 8–1 | 6.8 | +1.16 | 0.9 | 27% |
| William Keenan | Tulane University | 2.66 | 3.27 | 4–3 | 3.3 | +0.61 | 0.3 | 44% |
| John Glenn | Old Dominion University | 2.19 | 2.58 | 3–4 | 2.5 | +0.39 | 0.1 | 51% |
| Noyl Odom | Old Dominion University | 2.46 | 2.85 | 3–4 | 2.5 | +0.39 | 0.1 | 51% |
| Edward Cook | Georgetown University | 3.03 | 2.95 | 4–1 | 4.0 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 77% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Statesmen | Hoyas | Wave | Monarchs | Mariners | Privateers | Catamounts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 6–1 | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 6–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 6–1 | W | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 4–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 3–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners | 1–7 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | L | L |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 2–6 | L | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 1–6 | L | L | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Statesmen | Hoyas | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Mariners | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Statesmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Green Wave | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Monarchs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hoyas | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Catamounts | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 2-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Green Wave | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 2-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Hoyas | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Catamounts | 2-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Green Wave | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 2-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Statesmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Green Wave | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Privateers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 1-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Monarchs | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 2-3-6 |
| 26 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Privateers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-4-5 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
