College Sailing Team Race National Championship

HostKings Point
Date05/27/2023
TypeNational Championship Finals
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Harvard University	Crimson	19–3
2	Stanford University	Cardinal	18–4
3	Brown University	Bears	15–7
4	Yale University	Bulldogs	14–8
5	Dartmouth College	Big Green	14–8
6	Roger Williams University	Hawks	14–8
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	11–11
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	10–12
9	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	7–8
10	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	7–8
11	Georgetown University	Hoyas	6–9
12	Tulane University	Green Wave	5–10
13	Tufts University	Jumbos	4–11
14	Fordham University	Rams	3–12
15	University of Miami	Hurricanes	1–14
16	Purdue University	Boilermakers	0–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 21,576 team race matches sailed before 2023-05-27, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 119 of 152 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.434 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.41 ± 0.18: an orderly event, more orderly than 85% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Harvard University Crimson	3	11.50 school +0.22	Lachlain Mcgranahan / Christopher Wang 3.92 Justin Callahan / Kennedy Leehealey 3.88 Mitchell Callahan / Marbella Marlo 3.45	71%	19–3 (86%)	+3.4
2	Stanford University Cardinal	1	11.66 school +0.44	Hannah Freeman / Patricia Gerli 3.46 Michelle Lahrkamp / Ellie Harned 3.76 Vanessa Lahrkamp / Abigail Tindall 3.99	75%	18–4 (82%)	+1.6
3	Brown University Bears	5	11.02 school +0.28	Guthrie Braun / Emily Mueller 3.45 12–7 Liam O'Keefe / Nora Ong 3.72 6–5 Connor Nelson / Izzy Cox 3.53 6–5 Connor Nelson / Helen Horangic 3.56 9–2 Liam O'Keefe / Savannah Young 3.92 7–1 Liam O'Keefe / Lily Shore 3.69 2–1 Jed Bell / Lily Shore 2.88 2–0 Jed Bell / Savannah Young 3.10 1–0	63%	15–7 (68%)	+1.1
4	Yale University Bulldogs	2	11.67 school +0.31	Teddy Nicolosi / Anisha Arcot 3.70 Stephan Baker / Meredith Ryan 3.71 Jack Egan / Catherine Webb 3.92 14–7 Jack Egan / Nathan Sih 3.98 1–1	75%	15–8 (65%)	−2.1
5	Dartmouth College Big Green	6	10.70 school +0.35	Robert Bragg / Yumi Yoshiyasu 3.58 13–9 Maddie Hawkins / Aisling Sullivan 3.51 13–9 William Michels / Reese Bragg 3.31 13–9 Robert Bragg / Drew Clutterbuck 3.65 1–0 Christopher Long / Yumi Yoshiyasu 1–0 James Paul / Reese Bragg 3.10 1–0	55%	14–9 (61%)	+1.3
6	Roger Williams University Hawks	4	11.15 school +0.28	Aidan Hoogland / Molly Matthews 3.59 Carlos De Castro / Carly Kiss 3.77 Cameron Wood / Michaela Odonnell 3.49 12–8 Cameron Wood / Annika Irene 3.58 1–0 Mathieu Dale / Annika Irene 3.29 1–0	64%	14–8 (64%)	−0.2
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	10	10.14 school +0.21	Leo Boucher / Ellie Sekowski 3.69 Felix Cutler / Madison Bashaw 2.69 Owen Hennessey / Sam Muir 3.52	43%	13–11 (54%)	+2.8
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	9	10.24	Daniel Unangst / Jack Farrell 3.37 Colman Schofield / Lauren O'Neill 3.69 Matthew Kickhafer / Charles Pohl 3.16	44%	10–12 (45%)	+0.3
9	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	11	9.79 school +0.32	Cooper Walshe / Madeline Smith 3.01 Nathan Smith / Ryan Wahba 3.25 Gavin Mcjones / Ellie Alex 3.18	42%	8–9 (47%)	+0.9
10	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	8	10.13 school +0.38	Christopher Sharpless / Hannah Bast 2.96 Jordan Bruce / Shaanti Choi-Bose 3.67 Javier Garcon / Joshua Zeelander 3.13 6–7 Samuel Gavula / Joshua Zeelander 2.97 1–3	51%	7–10 (41%)	−1.7
11	Georgetown University Hoyas	7	10.32 school +0.25	Scott Mais / Addi Harris 3.39 6–8 Mariner Fagan / Emily Panarella 3.66 5–7 Mateo Di Blasi / Caro Gaston 3.31 3–5 Diego Escobar / Marguerite Montagner 3.28 2–3 Jeffrey Petersen / Emily Panarella 2.56 1–2 Edward Cook / Audrey Fung 2.94 1–2	54%	6–9 (40%)	−2.1
12	Tulane University Green Wave	12	9.52 school +0.15	Cameron Giblin / Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez 3.45 Thad Lettsome / Alex Makoid 3.12 4–10 Asher Zittrer / Gillian Perrell 2.85 3–10 Zander King / Alex Makoid 2.92 1–0 Matheo Graham-Capasso / Gillian Perrell 2.54 1–0 William Keenan / Gillian Perrell 2.56 1–0	37%	5–10 (33%)	−0.6
13	Tufts University Jumbos	13	9.27 school +0.11	Ben Mueller / Henry Tindall 3.20 3–11 Patrick Mulcahy / Caroline Kelly 2.67 3–8 Trevor Davis / Celia Byrne 3.21 2–8 Trevor Davis / Amelia Carlson 3.18 2–3 John Eastman / Celia Byrne 3.02 1–2 John Eastman / William Eykyn 2.99 1–1	33%	4–11 (27%)	−0.9
14	Fordham University Rams	14	8.93 school +0.27	Kenneth Corsig / Kristen Healy 3.20 Patrick Dolan / Lauren Miller 2.67 Peter Lobaugh / Bella Rabeni 2.76	27%	3–12 (20%)	−1.0
15	University of Miami Hurricanes	15	8.84 school +0.10	Atlee Kohl / Natalie Elder 3.24 Steven Hardee / Sandra Heilshorn 2.68 0–10 Aidan Dennis / James Nappo 2.90 1–8 Richard Mccann / Sandra Heilshorn 2.62 1–4 Richard Mccann / James Nappo 2.57 0–4 Aidan Dennis / Dominic Canonico 2.96 0–2	25%	1–14 (7%)	−2.7
16	Purdue University Boilermakers	16	4.18 school +0.18	Odey Hariri / Nok In Chan 1.68 Justin Skene / Zachary Gold 1.76 James Miller / Hadley Zeller	0%	0–15 (0%)	−0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Harvard University	11.50	12.56	19–3	15.6	+1.06	2.4	7%
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	10.14	10.72	13–11	10.2	+0.58	1.2	15%
2	Stanford University	11.66	12.14	18–4	16.4	+0.48	0.5	29%
5	Dartmouth College	10.70	10.99	14–9	12.7	+0.29	0.3	35%
9	U. S. Naval Academy	9.79	10.08	8–9	7.1	+0.28	0.2	40%
3	Brown University	11.02	11.30	15–7	13.9	+0.27	0.2	38%
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	10.24	10.31	10–12	9.7	+0.07	0.0	54%
6	Roger Williams University	11.15	11.11	14–8	14.1	−0.03	0.0	63%
12	Tulane University	9.52	9.29	5–10	5.6	−0.23	0.1	74%
13	Tufts University	9.27	8.86	4–11	4.9	−0.41	0.3	82%
4	Yale University	11.67	11.16	15–8	17.1	−0.51	0.8	91%
10	University of Pennsylvania	10.13	9.61	7–10	8.7	−0.52	0.6	89%
14	Fordham University	8.93	8.36	3–12	4.1	−0.57	0.4	86%
11	Georgetown University	10.32	9.51	6–9	8.1	−0.81	1.2	95%
16	Purdue University	4.18	1.18	0–15	0.1	≤−3.00	0.1	>99%
15	University of Miami	8.84	5.79	1–14	3.7	−3.06	4.0	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Jed Bell	Brown University	2.88	5.88	3–0	2.7	≥+3.00	0.5	72%
Hannah Freeman	Stanford University	3.46	3.93	18–4	16.4	+0.48	0.5	29%
Cooper Walshe	U. S. Naval Academy	3.01	3.30	8–9	7.1	+0.28	0.2	40%
Aidan Hoogland	Roger Williams University	3.59	3.56	14–8	14.1	−0.03	0.0	63%
Carlos De Castro	Roger Williams University	3.77	3.74	14–8	14.1	−0.03	0.0	63%
Patrick Mulcahy	Tufts University	2.67	2.30	3–8	3.6	−0.37	0.2	79%
Ben Mueller	Tufts University	3.20	2.78	3–11	3.9	−0.42	0.3	82%
Kenneth Corsig	Fordham University	3.20	2.63	3–12	4.1	−0.57	0.4	86%
Edward Cook	Georgetown University	2.94	2.34	1–2	1.4	−0.60	0.1	87%
Asher Zittrer	Tulane University	2.85	2.25	3–10	4.3	−0.60	0.6	88%
Samuel Gavula	University of Pennsylvania	2.97	2.25	1–3	1.5	−0.73	0.3	89%
Richard Mccann	University of Miami	2.62	-0.15	1–8	2.6	−2.78	2.3	>99%
Aidan Dennis	University of Miami	2.90	0.10	1–10	2.8	−2.80	2.5	>99%
James Miller	Purdue University	0.27	-2.73	0–15	0.1	≤−3.00	0.1	>99%
Atlee Kohl	University of Miami	3.24	0.18	1–14	3.7	−3.06	4.0	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
4	152	Yale University	Dartmouth College	71%
8	124	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	40%	upset
8	125	Brown University	Yale University	34%	upset
8	126	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	78%
8	127	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Stanford University	18%	upset
8	128	Yale University	Roger Williams University	62%
8	129	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	68%
8	130	Brown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	75%
8	131	Stanford University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	81%
8	132	Harvard University	Yale University	46%	upset
8	133	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	73%
8	134	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	63%
8	135	Stanford University	Brown University	65%
8	136	Harvard University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	79%
8	137	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Yale University	19%	upset
8	138	Roger Williams University	Brown University	53%
8	139	Dartmouth College	Stanford University	29%	upset
8	140	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	48%	upset
8	141	Brown University	Harvard University	43%	upset
8	142	Dartmouth College	Yale University	29%	upset
8	143	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	38%	upset
8	144	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	69%
8	145	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Dartmouth College	35%	upset
8	146	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	59%
8	147	Stanford University	Yale University	50%	upset
8	148	Brown University	Dartmouth College	56%
8	149	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Roger Williams University	29%	upset
8	150	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Yale University	18%	upset
8	151	Harvard University	Stanford University	46%	upset
16	1	Yale University	Brown University	66%
16	2	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	41%	upset
16	3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Purdue University	100%
16	4	Tulane University	Fordham University	66%
16	5	Stanford University	Georgetown University	74%
16	6	Harvard University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	80%
16	7	U. S. Naval Academy	Tufts University	64%
16	8	University of Pennsylvania	University of Miami	77%
16	9	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	81%
16	10	Roger Williams University	Tulane University	84%
16	11	Brown University	Purdue University	100%
16	12	Dartmouth College	Fordham University	86%
16	13	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	87%
16	14	Harvard University	University of Pennsylvania	79%
16	15	Georgetown University	Tufts University	81%
16	16	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Miami	77%
16	17	Yale University	Purdue University	100%
16	18	Roger Williams University	Fordham University	90%
16	19	Stanford University	Brown University	66%
16	20	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	33%	upset
16	21	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Georgetown University	40%	upset
16	22	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tulane University	63%
16	23	Yale University	Tufts University	92%
16	24	Roger Williams University	University of Miami	90%
16	25	Brown University	U. S. Naval Academy	77%
16	26	University of Pennsylvania	Dartmouth College	35%	upset
16	27	Stanford University	Purdue University	100%
16	28	Harvard University	Fordham University	93%
16	29	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	67%
16	30	Tulane University	University of Miami	65%
16	31	Yale University	Georgetown University	74%
16	32	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	73%
16	33	U. S. Naval Academy	Purdue University	100%
16	34	Fordham University	University of Pennsylvania	22%	upset
16	35	Brown University	Tufts University	81%
16	36	Dartmouth College	University of Miami	86%
16	37	Stanford University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	81%
16	38	Harvard University	Tulane University	87%
16	39	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	87%
16	40	Roger Williams University	University of Pennsylvania	73%
16	41	Tufts University	Purdue University	99%
16	42	Fordham University	University of Miami	58%
16	43	Brown University	Georgetown University	82%
16	44	Dartmouth College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	66%
16	45	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	U. S. Naval Academy	61%
16	46	University of Pennsylvania	Tulane University	64%
16	47	Stanford University	Yale University	50%	upset
16	48	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	59%
16	49	Georgetown University	Purdue University	100%
16	50	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	77%
16	51	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	68%
16	52	Dartmouth College	Tulane University	77%
16	53	Stanford University	Tufts University	90%
16	54	Harvard University	University of Miami	95%
16	55	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	30%	upset
16	56	University of Pennsylvania	St. Mary's College of Maryland	51%
16	57	Roger Williams University	Brown University	53%
16	58	Yale University	Fordham University	94%
16	59	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Dartmouth College	37%	upset
16	60	Stanford University	Tulane University	89%
16	61	Tufts University	University of Miami	71%
16	62	University of Pennsylvania	Georgetown University	75%
16	63	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	80%
16	64	Harvard University	Purdue University	100%
16	65	Brown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	75%
16	66	Yale University	Dartmouth College	71%
16	67	Tufts University	Fordham University	57%
16	68	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tulane University	66%
16	69	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	62%
16	70	Harvard University	U. S. Naval Academy	85%
16	71	Georgetown University	University of Miami	85%
16	72	University of Pennsylvania	Purdue University	100%
16	73	Dartmouth College	Brown University	44%	upset
16	74	Tulane University	Tufts University	59%
16	75	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	71%
16	76	Harvard University	Yale University	46%	upset
16	77	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	82%
16	78	University of Miami	Purdue University	99%
16	79	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	41%	upset
16	80	Georgetown University	Fordham University	85%
16	81	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	83%
16	82	Brown University	Tulane University	84%
16	83	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	47%	upset
16	84	Stanford University	University of Miami	94%
16	85	Yale University	University of Pennsylvania	82%
16	86	Harvard University	Georgetown University	70%
16	87	Fordham University	Purdue University	99%
16	88	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	87%
16	89	U. S. Naval Academy	Tulane University	55%
16	90	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	71%
16	91	Brown University	University of Miami	85%
16	92	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	62%
16	93	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	78%
16	94	Yale University	Roger Williams University	62%
16	95	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	70%
16	96	Tulane University	Purdue University	99%
16	97	Brown University	University of Pennsylvania	77%
16	98	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	72%
16	99	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Miami	83%
16	100	Roger Williams University	Georgetown University	63%
16	101	Stanford University	Harvard University	54%
16	102	Dartmouth College	Purdue University	99%
16	103	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	58%
16	104	Yale University	Tulane University	89%
16	105	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Fordham University	79%
16	106	Tufts University	University of Pennsylvania	31%	upset
16	107	Harvard University	Brown University	57%
16	108	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	38%	upset
16	109	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Purdue University	100%
16	110	Yale University	University of Miami	94%
16	111	Stanford University	Fordham University	94%
16	112	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	44%	upset
16	113	Harvard University	Tufts University	91%
16	114	Dartmouth College	U. S. Naval Academy	72%
16	115	Roger Williams University	Purdue University	100%
16	116	Tulane University	Georgetown University	27%	upset
16	117	Yale University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	82%
16	118	Brown University	Fordham University	84%
16	119	Stanford University	University of Pennsylvania	84%
16	120	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Miami	70%
16	121	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	58%
16	122	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	41%	upset
16	123	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	49%	upset

Round 4

	Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Green
	Yale University Bulldogs	1–0	✕	W
	Dartmouth College Big Green	0–1	L	✕

Round 8

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Cardinal	Bears	Bulldogs	Green	Hawks	Seahawks	Bears
Harvard University Crimson	6–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	3–4	L	✕	W	W	L	L	L	W
Brown University Bears	5–2	W	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	1–6	L	L	L	✕	L	W	L	L
Dartmouth College Big Green	4–3	L	W	L	W	✕	W	L	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–4	L	W	W	L	L	✕	W	L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–3	L	W	L	W	W	L	✕	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	2–5	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	✕

Round 16

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Cardinal	Bears	Bulldogs	Green	Hawks	Seahawks	Bears	Midshipmen	Quakers	Hoyas	Wave	Jumbos	Rams	Hurricanes	Boilermakers
Harvard University Crimson	13–2	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	15–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	10–5	L	L	✕	L	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	13–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	10–5	W	L	W	L	✕	W	W	L	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	11–4	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	9–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	8–7	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	8–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	7–10	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	L	L	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–9	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	5–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	4–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	3–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	1–14	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Purdue University Boilermakers	0–15	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
152	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
124	Big Green	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
125	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
126	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
127	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
128	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
129	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
130	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
131	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
132	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
133	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
134	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
135	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
136	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
137	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
138	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
139	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Cardinal	1-4-6
140	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
141	Bears	3-4-6	def.	Crimson	1-2-5 DSQ
142	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
143	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
144	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
145	Seahawks	1-3-5	def.	Big Green	2-4-6
146	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
147	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
148	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
149	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
150	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
151	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
1	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
2	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
3	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Boilermakers	4-5-6
4	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
5	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
6	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
7	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
8	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
9	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
10	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Green Wave	2-5-6
11	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Boilermakers	4-5-6
12	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
13	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
14	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
15	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
16	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
17	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Boilermakers	4-5-6
18	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
19	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
20	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
21	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
22	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
23	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
24	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Hurricanes	2-3-6
25	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
26	Quakers	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
27	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Boilermakers	4-5-6
28	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
29	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
30	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
31	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
32	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
33	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Boilermakers	3-5-6
34	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
35	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
36	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
37	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
38	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
39	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
40	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
41	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Boilermakers	3-4-6
42	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
43	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
44	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
45	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
46	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Green Wave	1-5-6
47	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
48	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
49	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Boilermakers	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
50	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
51	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
52	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
53	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
54	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
55	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
56	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
57	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
58	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
59	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
60	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Green Wave	2-3-6
61	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
62	Quakers	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
63	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
64	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Boilermakers	3-5-6
65	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
66	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
67	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
68	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
69	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
70	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
71	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
72	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Boilermakers	4-5-6
73	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
74	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
75	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
76	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
77	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
78	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Boilermakers	4-5-6
79	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
80	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
81	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
82	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
83	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
84	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
85	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
86	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
87	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Boilermakers	4-5-6
88	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
89	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
90	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
91	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	1-5-6
92	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
93	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
94	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
95	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
96	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Boilermakers	4-5-6
97	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
98	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
99	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
100	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
101	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
102	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Boilermakers	4-5-6
103	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
104	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
105	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
106	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Quakers	2-3-6
107	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
108	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
109	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Boilermakers	4-5-6
110	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	1-5-6
111	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
112	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
113	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
114	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
115	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Boilermakers	3-5-6
116	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
117	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
118	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
119	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
120	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Hurricanes	1-4-6
121	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
122	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
123	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Harvard University	Crimson	Justin Callahan '26 Lachlain Mcgranahan '24 Mitchell Callahan '26	Kennedy Leehealey '26 Christopher Wang '23 Marbella Marlo '24
Stanford University	Cardinal	Hannah Freeman '24 Michelle Lahrkamp '23 Vanessa Lahrkamp '26	Patricia Gerli '23 Ellie Harned '26 Abigail Tindall '23
Brown University	Bears	Connor Nelson '24 Guthrie Braun '26 Jed Bell '23 Liam O'Keefe '26	Izzy Cox '23 Helen Horangic '25 Emily Mueller '25 Savannah Young '25 Lily Shore '24 Nora Ong '23
Yale University	Bulldogs	Jack Egan '25 Stephan Baker '26 Teddy Nicolosi '24	Catherine Webb '23 Nathan Sih '25 Meredith Ryan '23 Anisha Arcot '23
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Christopher Long '23 James Paul '23 Maddie Hawkins '24 Robert Bragg '23 William Michels '25	Yumi Yoshiyasu '24 Reese Bragg '25 Aisling Sullivan '22 Drew Clutterbuck '23
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Aidan Hoogland '24 Cameron Wood '22 Carlos De Castro '26 Mathieu Dale '25	Molly Matthews '23 Michaela Odonnell '24 Annika Irene '23 Carly Kiss '25
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Felix Cutler '26 Leo Boucher '22 Owen Hennessey '25	Madison Bashaw '24 Ellie Sekowski '23 Sam Muir '22
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Colman Schofield '25 Daniel Unangst '24 Matthew Kickhafer '23	Lauren O'Neill '24 Jack Farrell '23 Charles Pohl '26
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Cooper Walshe '25 Gavin Mcjones '23 Nathan Smith '26	Madeline Smith '24 Ellie Alex '26 Ryan Wahba '25
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Christopher Sharpless '23 Javier Garcon '25 Jordan Bruce '24 Samuel Gavula '24	Hannah Bast '25 Joshua Zeelander '24 Shaanti Choi-Bose '24
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Diego Escobar '25 Edward Cook '23 Jeffrey Petersen '25 Mariner Fagan '24 Mateo Di Blasi '25 Scott Mais '23	Marguerite Montagner '25 Audrey Fung '24 Emily Panarella '24 Caro Gaston '25 Addi Harris '24
Tulane University	Green Wave	Asher Zittrer '23 Cameron Giblin '23 Matheo Graham-Capasso '26 Thad Lettsome '24 William Keenan '23 Zander King '25	Gillian Perrell '24 Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez '24 Alex Makoid '25
Tufts University	Jumbos	Ben Mueller '26 John Eastman '25 Patrick Mulcahy '23 Trevor Davis '24	Henry Tindall '25 Celia Byrne '24 William Eykyn '25 Caroline Kelly '23 Amelia Carlson '24
Fordham University	Rams	Kenneth Corsig '23 Patrick Dolan '25 Peter Lobaugh '24	Kristen Healy '24 Lauren Miller '23 Bella Rabeni '24
University of Miami	Hurricanes	Aidan Dennis '25 Atlee Kohl '25 Richard Mccann '23 Steven Hardee '26	Dominic Canonico '23 James Nappo '24 Natalie Elder '25 Sandra Heilshorn '23
Purdue University	Boilermakers	James Miller '23 Justin Skene '24 Odey Hariri '24	Hadley Zeller '26 Zachary Gold '24 Nok In Chan '25

Conditions — 05/27/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 40% · Pressure 1025.9 hPa

Temperature

71°F

↑ 76°F ↓ 60°F

Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.3 kn

avg · max 8.7 kn

Gusts to 18.5 kn

From ENE (75°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover43% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity40% Pressure1025.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Kings Point — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Kings Point in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kings Point by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (80 labelled fleet-race days at Kings Point).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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