Graham Hall Team Race

HostNavy
Date03/11/2023
TypeCross Regional
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Roger Williams University	Hawks	10–2
2	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	7–5
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	7–5
4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	6–6
5	George Washington University	Buff and Blue	5–4
6	College of Charleston	Cougars	5–4
7	Cornell University	Big Red	4–5
8	Tufts University	Jumbos	4–5
9	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	2–7
10	Boston University	Terriers	1–8

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 19,442 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 35 of 55 matches (64%) with a log-loss of 0.758 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.94 ± 0.28: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 3% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	1	10.20 school +0.27	Aidan Hoogland / Hank Bailey 3.41 Cameron Wood / Grace Woodcock 3.39 Mathieu Dale / Annika Irene 3.12	74%	10–2 (83%)	+1.2
2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3	10.00 school +0.44, home +0.39	Nathan Smith / Ryan Wahba 3.25 6–2 Cooper Walshe / Jonah Hatt 2.81 4–3 Gavin Mcjones / Ryan Wahba 3.29 4–3 Cooper Walshe / Madeline Smith 2.87 5–2 Nathan Smith / Colin Macgillivray 3.14 3–3 Gavin Mcjones / Ellie Alex 3.20 5–1 Jack Welburn / Ellie Alex 1–1 Jack Welburn / Colin Macgillivray 1–0 Jack Welburn / Madeline Smith 1–0	71%	10–5 (67%)	−0.6
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4	9.90 school +0.29	Charlie Anderson / Katherine Shermock 2.58 6–6 Leo Boucher / Sam Muir 3.51 6–1 Owen Hennessey / Dexter Mueller 3.48 5–1 Leo Boucher / Ellie Sekowski 3.57 1–5 Owen Hennessey / Sam Muir 3.47 1–5 Charlie Anderson / Felix Cutler 2.60 1–0 Owen Hennessey / Henry Haddon 3.47 1–0	66%	7–6 (54%)	−1.6
4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	9	7.99 school +0.10	Nicholas Sessions / Anna Mcbride 2.39 3–4 Richard Gleason / Cooper Delbridge 2.51 3–4 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones / Colin Dubose 2.79 3–4 Nicholas Sessions / Rachel Duggan 2.53 3–2 Richard Gleason / Tess Weber 2.59 3–2 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones / Anna Mcbride 2.83 3–2	24%	6–6 (50%)	+3.2
5	George Washington University Buff and Blue	8	7.83	Owen Timms / Genevieve Mumma 2.88 Tyler Wood / Kaleigh Morgan 2.89 Jedidiah Bechtel / Alexandra Lee 5–1 Oscar Macgillivray / Alexandra Lee 2.46 1–2 Oscar Macgillivray / Henry Mcpherson 2.50 0–2	27%	6–5 (55%)	+3.1
6	College of Charleston Cougars	2	9.93 school +0.51	Axel Stordahl / Lucy Klempen 3.03 4–2 Brandon Geller / Aidan Iaconis 3.33 4–2 Noah Zittrer / Garrett Grenauer 4–2 Axel Stordahl / Noelle Owen 2.91 1–4 Brandon Geller / Anna Sherry 3.34 1–4 Noah Zittrer / Lucy Klempen 1–4	71%	5–6 (45%)	−2.8
7	Cornell University Big Red	10	7.64 school −0.19	Lauren Ehnot / Sophia Fogarty 2.57 Sophia Devling / Adler Weber Hayden Earl / Isabel Dhar 2.88 2–5 Hayden Earl / Clara Hewson 2.93 2–0	22%	4–5 (44%)	+2.1
8	Tufts University Jumbos	5	8.89 school +0.13	Ben Mueller / Nicolas Echarte 3.06 4–2 Trevor Davis / Henry Tindall 3.04 4–2 Patrick Mulcahy / William Eykyn 2.60 4–2 Ben Mueller / Henry Tindall 3.00 0–3 Trevor Davis / Celia Byrne 3.10 0–3 Patrick Mulcahy / Caroline Kelly 2.72 0–3	48%	4–5 (44%)	−0.3
9	Old Dominion University Monarchs	7	8.29 school +0.27	Andrew Ciszewski / Parker Younger 2.43 Noyl Odom / Diogo Silva 2.70 1–7 Parker Purrington / Grace Wright 2.83 1–4 Parker Purrington / Asianna Acosta 2.84 0–3 Noyl Odom / Ethan Tutt 2.77 1–0 Parker Purrington / Diogo Silva 2.83 1–0	35%	2–7 (22%)	−1.1
10	Boston University Terriers	6	8.59	Tyler Mowry / Madeline Stull 3.08 1–6 Noah Robitshek / Abigail Murray 2.78 1–5 Micky Munns / Matthew Hamelsky 2.78 0–5 Micky Munns / Chet Swanson 2.69 1–3 Noah Robitshek / Matthew Hamelsky 2.76 0–3 Tyler Mowry / Catherine Shakin 3.06 0–2	45%	1–8 (11%)	−3.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
5	George Washington University	7.83	9.40	6–5	2.9	+1.58	3.6	3%
4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	7.99	9.38	6–6	2.8	+1.39	3.3	3%
7	Cornell University	7.64	8.87	4–5	1.9	+1.23	1.9	10%
1	Roger Williams University	10.20	10.86	10–2	8.8	+0.66	0.5	33%
8	Tufts University	8.89	8.72	4–5	4.3	−0.18	0.0	73%
2	U. S. Naval Academy	10.00	9.79	10–5	10.6	−0.21	0.1	75%
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	9.90	9.26	7–6	8.6	−0.64	0.7	91%
9	Old Dominion University	8.29	7.55	2–7	3.1	−0.74	0.6	90%
6	College of Charleston	9.93	8.54	5–6	7.8	−1.39	2.9	99%
10	Boston University	8.59	6.42	1–8	4.0	−2.17	4.1	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Jedidiah Bechtel	George Washington University	1.56	5.33	5–1	0.7	+3.77	12.3	<1%
Richard Gleason	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	2.51	3.90	6–6	2.8	+1.39	3.3	3%
Aidan Hoogland	Roger Williams University	3.41	4.07	10–2	8.8	+0.66	0.5	33%
Ben Mueller	Tufts University	3.06	2.88	4–5	4.3	−0.18	0.0	73%
Patrick Mulcahy	Tufts University	2.60	2.42	4–5	4.3	−0.18	0.0	73%
Cooper Walshe	U. S. Naval Academy	2.81	2.53	9–5	9.8	−0.29	0.2	79%
Charlie Anderson	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.58	1.94	7–6	8.6	−0.64	0.7	91%
Noyl Odom	Old Dominion University	2.70	1.96	2–7	3.1	−0.74	0.6	90%
Andrew Ciszewski	Old Dominion University	2.43	1.70	2–7	3.1	−0.74	0.6	90%
Owen Hennessey	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.48	2.15	1–4	2.2	−1.32	1.1	96%
Axel Stordahl	College of Charleston	3.03	1.64	5–6	7.8	−1.39	2.9	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	91%
1	2	Old Dominion University	George Washington University	51%
1	3	Cornell University	Roger Williams University	6%	upset
1	4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	College of Charleston	49%	upset
1	5	Tufts University	Boston University	57%
1	6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	39%	upset
1	7	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	93%
1	8	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	84%
1	9	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	79%
1	10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Boston University	79%
1	11	George Washington University	Cornell University	66%
1	12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	College of Charleston	12%	upset
1	13	Tufts University	U. S. Naval Academy	22%	upset
1	14	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	83%
1	15	Roger Williams University	Boston University	84%
1	16	College of Charleston	Cornell University	91%
1	17	Tufts University	George Washington University	65%
1	18	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	88%
1	19	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	52%
1	20	Boston University	Old Dominion University	57%
1	21	College of Charleston	Tufts University	74%
1	22	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Cornell University	90%
1	23	Roger Williams University	George Washington University	87%
1	24	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	41%	upset
1	25	U. S. Naval Academy	Boston University	69%
1	26	Tufts University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	27%	upset
1	27	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	43%	upset
1	28	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	35%	upset
1	29	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	11%	upset
1	30	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Boston University	36%	upset
1	31	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	57%
1	32	Old Dominion University	Tufts University	34%	upset
1	33	U. S. Naval Academy	College of Charleston	56%
1	34	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Cornell University	59%
1	35	George Washington University	Boston University	23%	upset
1	36	Roger Williams University	Old Dominion University	87%
1	37	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	44%	upset
1	38	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Tufts University	29%	upset
1	39	George Washington University	College of Charleston	8%	upset
1	40	Cornell University	Boston University	28%	upset
1	41	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	83%
1	42	Roger Williams University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	89%
1	43	George Washington University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	8%	upset
1	44	Cornell University	Tufts University	23%	upset
1	45	College of Charleston	Boston University	78%
2	55	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	57%
4	46	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	88%
4	47	George Washington University	College of Charleston	8%	upset
4	48	U. S. Naval Academy	College of Charleston	56%
4	49	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	87%
4	50	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	51%
4	51	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	57%
4	52	Roger Williams University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	89%
4	53	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	89%
4	54	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	57%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Midshipmen	Seahawks	Statesmen	Blue	Cougars	Red	Jumbos	Monarchs	Terriers
Roger Williams University Hawks	7–2	✕	W	W	W	W	L	L	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–4	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W	L	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6–3	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W	L	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	6–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Buff and Blue	5–4	L	W	W	L	✕	W	W	L	L	W
College of Charleston Cougars	5–4	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	4–5	W	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	4–5	L	W	W	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	2–7	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	✕	L
Boston University Terriers	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

	Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Seahawks
	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1–0	✕	W
	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	0–1	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Midshipmen	Seahawks	Statesmen	Blue	Cougars
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–0	✕	W	W	W	–	–
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	1–2	L	L	✕	W	–	–
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	0–3	L	L	L	✕	–	–
George Washington University Buff and Blue	1–1	–	L	–	–	✕	W
College of Charleston Cougars	0–2	–	L	–	–	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
2	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Buff and Blue	3-5-6
3	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
4	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
5	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Terriers	2-3-6
6	Statesmen	1-3-5	def.	Buff and Blue	2-4-6
7	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
8	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
9	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
10	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
11	Buff and Blue	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
12	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
13	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
14	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
15	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
16	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Big Red	2-5-6
17	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Buff and Blue	4-5-6
18	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
19	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
20	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
21	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
22	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
23	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Buff and Blue	3-5-6
24	Statesmen	1-3-6	def.	Monarchs	2-4-5
25	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
26	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
27	Cougars	2-5-6 DNF	def.	Hawks	1-3-4 DSQ
28	Big Red	2-4-5	def.	Monarchs	1-3-6 DSQ
29	Buff and Blue	1-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-3-6
30	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
31	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
32	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
33	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
34	Statesmen	1-3-5	def.	Big Red	2-4-6
35	Buff and Blue	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
36	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
37	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
38	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
39	Buff and Blue	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6
40	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
41	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
42	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
43	Buff and Blue	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
44	Big Red	2-5-6 DNF	def.	Jumbos	1-3-4 DSQ
45	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
55	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
46	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Buff and Blue	4-5-6
47	Buff and Blue	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
48	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
49	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
50	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
51	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
52	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
53	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
54	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Aidan Hoogland '24 Cameron Wood '22 Mathieu Dale '25	Hank Bailey '24 Grace Woodcock '23 Annika Irene '23
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Cooper Walshe '25 Gavin Mcjones '23 Jack Welburn '26 Nathan Smith '26	Jonah Hatt '23 Madeline Smith '24 Ryan Wahba '25 Ellie Alex '26 Colin Macgillivray '23
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Charlie Anderson '25 Leo Boucher '22 Owen Hennessey '25	Katherine Shermock '24 Felix Cutler '26 Sam Muir '22 Ellie Sekowski '23 Dexter Mueller '24 Henry Haddon '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones '26 Nicholas Sessions '24 Richard Gleason '24	Colin Dubose '25 Anna Mcbride '24 Rachel Duggan '25 Cooper Delbridge '26 Tess Weber '23
George Washington University	Buff and Blue	Jedidiah Bechtel '26 Oscar Macgillivray '24 Owen Timms '23 Tyler Wood '26	Alexandra Lee '25 Henry Mcpherson '25 Genevieve Mumma '24 Kaleigh Morgan '24
College of Charleston	Cougars	Axel Stordahl '24 Brandon Geller '23 Noah Zittrer '26	Lucy Klempen '24 Noelle Owen '24 Aidan Iaconis '26 Anna Sherry '23 Garrett Grenauer '24
Cornell University	Big Red	Hayden Earl '25 Lauren Ehnot '24 Sophia Devling '26	Isabel Dhar '23 Clara Hewson '24 Sophia Fogarty '25 Adler Weber '25
Tufts University	Jumbos	Ben Mueller '26 Patrick Mulcahy '23 Trevor Davis '24	Henry Tindall '25 Nicolas Echarte '25 Caroline Kelly '23 William Eykyn '25 Celia Byrne '24
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Andrew Ciszewski '25 Noyl Odom '24 Parker Purrington '24	Parker Younger '24 Diogo Silva '26 Ethan Tutt '24 Asianna Acosta '26 Grace Wright '26
Boston University	Terriers	Micky Munns '23 Noah Robitshek '25 Tyler Mowry '23	Matthew Hamelsky '23 Chet Swanson '23 Abigail Murray '23 Catherine Shakin '23 Madeline Stull '23

Conditions — 03/11/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 53% · Pressure 1010.4 hPa

Temperature

43°F

↑ 47°F ↓ 38°F

Feels like 33°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

12.2 kn

avg · max 15.1 kn

Gusts to 34.2 kn

From NNW (330°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine4.8 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1010.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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