Oyster Bowl - Pearl

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 125
2 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 176
3 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 179
4 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 233
5 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 244
6 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 252
7 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 266
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen A 2 3 6 3 2 1 5 1 3 3 1 1 4 13 48 Richard Gleason '24
Anna Mcbride '24
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks A 5 11 4 2 1 7 10 2 2 6 13 2 1 3 69 Keiran James Golden '24
Saige Teti '23
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers A 6 7 5 10 6 2 12 6 5 1 6 4 3 2 75 Samuel Gavula '24
Hannah Bast '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen B 12 1 1 1 3 8 1 5 10 9 9 11 5 1 77 Blake Stackpoole '22
Ksenia Lowry-Neufeld '25
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas A 11 5 3 4 13 13 4 7 8 2 8 8 2 6 94 Joe Coyne '23 [1-12]
John Patrick Panarella '22 [13-14]
Eva Fortunato '23 [1-10]
Audrey Fung '24 [11-14]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen A 8 2 8 6 9 11 6 12 4 7 4 5 10 8 100 Caden Scheiblauer '23
Madeline Smith '24
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers B 1 9 9 14 7 3 2 3 1 14 12 13 6 10 104 Torrey Chisari '24 [1-14]
Adam Hano '23 [1-6]
Claire Dubois '23 [7-14]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks B 3 10 7 7 4 5 9 9 RAF 12 2 9 8 7 107 Taft Buckley '25 [1-14]
Henry Haddon '25 [1-5, 9-14]
Lucas Masiello '23 [6-8]
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs A 7 12 12 5 8 10 7 13 6 4 10 6 9 5 114 John Glenn '22
Allison Volk '25
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials A 10 6 2 11 5 14 3 4 7 5 DNS DNS DNS DNS 127 Oscar Macgillivray '24
Taylor Milefchik '22
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen B 4 13 13 12 10 12 11 8 12 8 5 3 11 11 133 Tanner Kelly '25
Catherine Aitken '24
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs B 9 8 11 8 12 9 8 10 11 13 3 12 12 12 138 Andrew Ciszewski '25
Grace O'Brien '24
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials B 13 4 14 9 11 6 13 11 9 11 11 10 13 4 139 Sarah Hardee '22 [1-10]
Owen Timms '23 [11-14]
Ruby Gordon '23 [1-10]
Alexandra Lee '25 [11-14]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas B 14 14 10 13 14 4 14 14 13 10 7 7 7 9 150 Jack Murray '22 [1-6]
Anson Walker '25 [7-10]
Eva Fortunato '23 [11-14]
Marguerite Montagner '25 [1-10]
Alexander Mazzeo '22 [11-14]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (41 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials11112222333344
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas22221111141414141313
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen33334444555566
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen66665555444433
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs44443333222211
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers7777888899991010
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks55556666777788

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials88887777666655
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas999910101010111111111212
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen101010109999888877
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen1313131314141414111122
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs1111111112121212131313131414
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers1414141413131313121212121111
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks12121212111111111010101099

Conditions — 10/09/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 73%  ·  Pressure 1019.2 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 67°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.6 kn
avg  ·  max 10.4 kn
Gusts to 22.0 kn
From ENE (57°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine1.1 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1019.2 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 8 kn · NE 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Mary's: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.09 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.45 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →