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David Lee Arnoff

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 78
2 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 134
3 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 174
4 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 185
5 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 198
6 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 271
7 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 296
8 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 340
9 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 377
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen A 2 1 3 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 11 2 27 Will Murray '24 [1-12]
Ella Donaldson '27 [1-6]
Stella Kim '27 [7-8]
Colin Dubose '25 [9-12]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen B 7 2 1 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 6 11 51 Nicholas Sessions '24 [1-12]
Valyn Mogensen '26 [1-8]
Laura Therien '26 [9-12]
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers A 1 3 9 4 2 5 3 8 8 8 8 3 62 Cole Woodworth '26
Caroline Friendly '27
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red A 6 4 6 8 5 3 5 6 15 5 1 6 70 Lauren Ehnot '24
Wynne Williams '27
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers B 4 5 10 7 3 12 2 1 DNS 4 4 1 72 John Majernik '25
Cat Grogan '25
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers A 14 7 7 10 10 6 7 9 5 2 2 7 86 Asher Green '24
Virginia Cobbs '25
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers A 9 8 2 5 6 15 6 5 11 9 7 4 87 Brooks Turcotte '26
Harrison Trout '27
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers B 3 9 5 9 8 9 9 7 13 10 3 14 99 Ossian Kamal '26
Kate Feiner '26
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red B 5 12 4 2 9 18 15 10 2 7 10 10 104 Maya Conway '26 [1-6]
Aidan Lane '24 [7-12]
Clara Hewson '24 [1-6]
Maeve Katics '26 [7-12]
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers B 11 14 12 6 11 2 10 4 7 12 14 8 111 Marcus Adam '23 [1-12]
Kaitlyn Scarcella '27 [1-10]
Jeremy Lunati '27 [11-12]
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts A 16 10 14 12 14 13 8 12 4 6 9 5 123 Gavin Sanborn '25
Alex Boni '25
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers B 12 6 8 11 7 8 11 11 14 14 16 12 130 Marley Barrett '27
Teddy Winters '26
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts B 17 13 13 13 12 16 12 15 6 11 5 15 148 Ella Towner '27 [1-12]
Alex Forrest '26 [1-6, 11-12]
Jackson Hurd-Messom '27 [7-10]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines A 13 11 16 14 18 14 14 14 12 16 12 9 163 Samuel Stephens '25
Bryson Denuyl '24
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers A 15 16 11 17 15 10 16 18 9 13 13 13 166 Jacqueline Ruggieri '27
Mary Daniels '24
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines B 8 15 17 15 16 11 18 17 10 17 15 18 177 Ted Sherman '27
Silas Lorenz '27
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs B 10 18 15 16 13 17 17 13 17 18 17 17 188 Robert Bloomfield '26
Annika Burns '27
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs A 18 17 18 18 17 7 13 16 16 15 18 16 189 Max Case '24
Mira Shupe '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs112233445566
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red22111818171716161515
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen334455667788
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines665544332211
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers55667788991010
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers778899101011111212
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers4433221118181717
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts887766554433
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers9910101111121213131414

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs10109988776655
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red111112121313141415151616
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen121211111010998877
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines15151616171718181122
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers1414131312121111101099
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers161615151414131312121111
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers131314141515161617171818
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts1717181811223344
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers181817171616151514141313

Conditions — 10/14/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 91%  ·  Pressure 1009.9 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 51°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.0 kn
avg  ·  max 4.3 kn
Gusts to 8.0 kn
From NE (36°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity91% Pressure1009.9 hPa Rain0.13 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 6 kn · NW 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Hobart & William: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.08 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.02
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.44 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hobart & William by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 14 labelled days at Hobart & William, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →