Boston University '18
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 43.31 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.078 rating points from 282 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.47 (fleet 2.04) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 33–28 (54%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | — | 7–3 |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | — | 8–2 |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | — | 6–4 |
| Fall 2014 | 3 | — | 12–19 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (61 matches) the record is 33–28 against 30.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-26 | BU Team Race | crew | 2.43 | 3.22 | 7–3 | 5.8 | +0.79 | 0.7 | 27% |
| 2015-11-07 | The Mike Horn Trophy | crew | 2.77 | 2.13 | 8–2 | 8.8 | −0.65 | 0.4 | 90% |
| 2015-03-28 | Staake | crew | 3.24 | 2.93 | 6–4 | 6.5 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 2014-11-08 | The Mike Horn Trophy | crew | 2.16 | 3.11 | 10–5 | 7.3 | +0.94 | 1.9 | 9% |
| 2014-10-19 | Lane Trophy | crew | 2.10 | 1.38 | 1–5 | 1.3 | −0.72 | 0.2 | 92% |
| 2014-10-18 | Norman Reid Team Race | crew | 1.73 | 1.62 | 1–9 | 1.1 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | A | 10 | 9.1 | — |
| BU Trophy | Crew | A | 11 | 5.5 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Crew | B | 13 | 8.8 | — |
| Sister Esther Open | Crew | A | 5 | 13.6 | — |
| Salt Pond Invite | Crew | A, B | 7 | 6.1 | — |
| Penobscot Bay Regatta | Crew | B | 8 | 4.1 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | A | 10 | 7.6 | — |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Crew | A | 14 | 11.4 | — |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Crew | A | 3 | 5.3 | — |
| Central Series | Crew | A | 8 | 7.4 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Crew | A | 7 | 9.0 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 5.3 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 5 | 13.0 | — |
| Central Series 2 | Crew | A | 4 | 7.2 | — |
| BU Team Race | Crew | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| 82nd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Crew | C | 5 | 5.4 | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Crew | B | 8 | 4.6 | — |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 8.0 | — |
| Penobscot Bay Open | Crew | B | 6 | 5.5 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | C | 9 | 5.3 | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Crew | C | 2 | 6.5 | — |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Crew | B | 6 | 4.2 | — |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 7 | 9.0 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Crew | A | 8 | 6.6 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 5 | Crew | B | 4 | 3.2 | — |
| Penobscot Bay Open | Crew | B | 7 | 7.0 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | C | 7 | 7.7 | — |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Crew | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| Lake Champlain Open | Crew | A | 8 | 7.6 | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Crew | B | 11 | 8.5 | — |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Crew | B | 2 | 8.5 | — |
| Central Series6 | Crew | B | 2 | 7.5 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Staake | Crew | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Owen,Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Crew | B | 12 | 7.4 | — |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl/NE Champs | Crew | B | 6 | 11.5 | — |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Crew | B | 8 | 11.8 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Pen Bay Open | Crew | B | 12 | 8.0 | — |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Crew | TR | 10 | 10% | — |
| Nickerson Trophy | Crew | B | 2 | 7.5 | — |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Crew | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Lane Trophy | Crew | TR | 6 | 17% | — |
| Lake Champlain Open | Crew | B | 4 | 9.2 | — |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Crew | B | 17 | 7.8 | — |
| Crews Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.2 | 2.71 |
| Barnett Trophy | Crew | B | 12 | 5.8 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
