Boston College '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.12 (fleet 2.93) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 36–10 (78%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 9–1 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 8–2 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 8–3 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 11–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (46 matches) the record is 36–10 against 33.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-26 | BU Team Race | skipper | 2.52 | 3.30 | 9–1 | 8.1 | +0.78 | 0.4 | 41% |
| 2015-11-07 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 2.58 | 3.62 | 8–2 | 6.4 | +1.05 | 1.1 | 20% |
| 2014-10-18 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 2.77 | 2.89 | 8–3 | 7.8 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 59% |
| 2013-11-09 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 2.70 | 2.59 | 11–4 | 11.3 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Central 3 | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.2 | 3.07 |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.0 | 2.83 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Central Series 3 Spring 2016 | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.8 | 3.40 |
| BC Central Series | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.0 | 1.85 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's College of MD Fall Interconference | Skipper | A, B | 8 | 9.8 | 2.65 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| Central Series6 | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.0 | 4.55 |
| Central Series 2 | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.6 | 3.19 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 5.1 | 2.71 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| RI States, 3rd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.5 | 2.63 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| Central Series 6 | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.9 | 3.67 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 1 @ SRU | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.0 | 2.92 |
| Central Series 3 | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.2 | 2.61 |
| Admiral Alymers Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.5 | 3.23 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 4 | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.3 | 2.36 |
| Providence College Invite | Skipper | B | 10 | 2.2 | 3.33 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| Central Series 6 | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.0 | 2.87 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
