McMillan Cup

HostNavy
Date10/25/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED Two-Conference
BoatNavy 44
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	17	17
2	Queen's University	Gaels	18	18
3	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	25	25
4	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	28	28
5	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	31	31
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	37	37
7	Cornell University	Big Red	42	42
8	Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	45	45
9	U. S. Military Academy	Black Knights	47	47
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	50	50

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	1	1	2	7	2	4	17
Queen's University	Gaels	2	8	3	3	1	1	18
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	6	2	4	1	5	DSQ	25
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	7	3	1	8	4	5	28
Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	5	7	DSQ	2	3	3	31
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	3	4	DSQ	4	DSQ	10	37
Cornell University	Big Red	9	6	7	5	9	6	42
Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	8	9	8	6	6	DSQ	45
U. S. Military Academy	Black Knights	10	5	5	10	8	9	47
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	4	10	9	9	10	8	50

School	Team	Sailors
Cornell University	Big Red	SkipperPhilippe Williamson '16 CrewWesley Britton '17 CrewRyan Montgomery '17 CrewBradley Barth '16 CrewSamuel Webster '17 CrewRobert Suriani '16 CrewTaner Bertuna '16 CrewMax Joh-Carnella '16
Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	SkipperBenjamin Sturmer '18 CrewIsaac Parker '18 CrewRinchen Harrison '15 CrewSteven Bell '16 CrewJoseph Farrin '15 CrewTimothy Vassallo '15 CrewAlison Mitchell '16 CrewAnnika Zayac '17
Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	SkipperPriscilla Stoll '15 CrewCharles Cahill '15 CrewMatthew Ferlotti '15 CrewRobert Queisser '16 CrewKyle Brego '17 CrewAndrew Morgan '15 CrewJames Lamb '16 CrewRyan Novak-Smith '17
Queen's University	Gaels	SkipperClifton Kartner '15 CrewConnor MacKenzie '17 CrewDaniel Sheedy '17 CrewMarie Boileau '16 CrewJack Breislin '16 CrewKieran Sadler '15 CrewNicholas Wright '16
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	SkipperJoel Kinkel '15 CrewThomas Callahan '15 CrewEmery Eiber '15 CrewEvan Kinkel '15 CrewTobias Fitzgerald '16 CrewChalmers Pierce '16 CrewAlexander Haim '17 CrewAlexander Sharpe '16
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	SkipperJacob Wolf '15 CrewBenjamin Weiss '15 CrewBliss Rogers '16 CrewMichael Woollen '15 CrewLauren O'Connell '16 CrewBennett Fletcher '17 CrewAustin Godwin '15 CrewDaniel Pratson '15
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	SkipperTyler Halfhill '15 CrewPeter Reeve '17 CrewMegan Koch '16 CrewWilliam Colomb '18 CrewCarlos Palenzuela '15 CrewJoshua Payne '15 CrewDaniel Siders '15 CrewNoel Cruz '15
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	SkipperJohn Kirk '16 CrewAlexander Showell '15 CrewAustin Neuman '16 CrewMax Neubelt '17 CrewElliott Price '15 CrewMichael Hahn '16 CrewMichael Watkins '16 CrewJacob Andrew '17
U. S. Military Academy	Black Knights	SkipperMatthew Schmitt '17 CrewJack Pinnell '15 CrewCharles Christianson '17 CrewBlair Stewart '15 CrewZachary Lee '15 CrewJames Trollan '16 CrewKurt Adams '18 CrewBrian Bui '16
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	SkipperJoshua Forgacs '15 CrewDuncan Mamer '15 CrewJames Reynolds '17 CrewNicholas Tucker '15 CrewErik Derecktor '16 CrewMichael Moore '16 CrewPhillip Campbell '17 CrewDax Ansley '16

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 10 boats · 6 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Joshua Forgacs '15	U. S. Naval Academy	6/6	1.67^u	2.00	+0.33	94th → 99th	0.3	28%	2.8 / 3.9
2	Clifton Kartner '15	Queen's University	6/6	0.69	1.87	+1.18	57th → 97th	3.2	5%	3.0 / 5.7
3	John Kirk '16	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	6/6	0.84	1.19	+0.35	67th → 81st	0.4	39%	4.7 / 5.3
4	Joel Kinkel '15	SUNY Maritime College	6/6	0.53^u	1.53	+1.00	50th → 91st	2.1	27%	4.8 / 5.9
5	Priscilla Stoll '15	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	6/6	0.84	1.56	+0.71	67th → 91st	1.2	47%	5.2 / 5.4
6	Philippe Williamson '16	Cornell University	6/6	0.40	0.36	−0.04	42nd → 41st	0.0	70%	7.0 / 6.1
7	Tyler Halfhill '15	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	6/6	1.58^u	0.53	−1.05	91st → 50th	2.0	98%	7.2 / 4.0
8	Matthew Schmitt '17	U. S. Military Academy	6/6	-0.18	-0.13	+0.05	9th → 11th	0.0	68%	7.8 / 7.1
9	Benjamin Sturmer '18	Maine Maritime Academy	6/6	0.64	0.19	−0.45	56th → 22nd	0.6	92%	8.0 / 5.7
10	Jacob Wolf '15	St. Mary's College of Maryland	6/6	0.61^u	-0.77	−1.38	55th → 1st	5.0	95%	8.3 / 5.8

Conditions — 10/25/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 57% · Pressure 1011.2 hPa

Temperature

62°F

↑ 68°F ↓ 50°F

Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.9 kn

avg · max 9.4 kn

Gusts to 15.9 kn

From WSW (248°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover5% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1011.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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