Seahawk Colonial Showdown

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 39
2 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 46
3 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 50
4 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 52
5 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 67
6 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 3 76
7 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4 91
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 A 6 1 1 1 9 Lewis Cooper '21
Sophia Taczak '21
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 B 2 5 7 5 19 Michael Ehnot '22
Sydney Register '22
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 A 3 3 5 9 20 Matthew Priebe '22
Megan Mansfield '21
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 B 1 4 13 2 20 Katherine Bennett '22
Ellie Sekowski '23
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 B 4 9 3 8 24 Soenke Jordan '21
Ruby Gordon '23
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 A 7 6 9 4 26 Matt Logue '22
Taylor Milefchik '22
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 A 10 2 2 12 26 Gloria Kevliciute '21
Rachel O'Neill '24
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 B 13 7 4 6 30 Madison Bashaw '24
Laura Dennison '21
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4 A 9 8 8 11 36 Lucas Masiello '23
Emma Gronda '22
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 3 B 12 11 6 7 36 Sarah Hardee '22 [1-4]
Sylvia Fresco '23 [1-2]
Mikaela Smith '22 [3-4]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 A 11 12 11 3 37 Hunter Cutting '21
Sam Muir '22
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 3 A 8 10 12 10 40 John Deruff '21 [1-4]
Annabelle O'Bryan '24 [1-3]
Sylvia Fresco '23 [4]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 B 5 13 10 RAF 43 Keiran James Golden '24
Katherine Shermock '24
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4 B 14 14 14 13 55 Dexter Mueller '24
Allison Gingerich '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (19 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 11111
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 22222
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 33333
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 17777
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 28888
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 39999
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 410101010

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 14444
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 25555
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 36666
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 111111111
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 212121212
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 313131313
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 414141414

Conditions — 03/20/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 48%  ·  Pressure 1035.2 hPa

Temperature

44°F
↑ 49°F   ↓ 37°F
Feels like 37°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.1 kn
avg  ·  max 8.6 kn
Gusts to 20.6 kn
From N (9°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover40% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1035.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Mary's: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.10 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.09 ± 0.28)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →