George Washington University '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.46 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 6–5 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 2 | — | 6–5 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (11 matches) the record is 6–5 against 3.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-03-27 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | crew | 2.56 | 3.87 | 4–2 | 2.2 | +1.31 | 1.7 | 13% |
| 2021-03-07 | St. Mary's TR Opener | crew | 1.61 | 2.70 | 2–3 | 1.2 | +1.09 | 0.7 | 32% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Seahawk Colonial Showdown | Crew | A | 4 | 5.0 | — |
| St. Mary's TR Opener | Crew | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Crew | TR | 9 | 78% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
