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Aaron Szambecki Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 7–2
2 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 1 7–2
2 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 2 7–2
4 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 5–4
5 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 3–6
6 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 3–6
7 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 2–7
8 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 2–7

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 15,436 team race matches sailed before 2021-03-27, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 5 of 12 matches (42%) with a log-loss of 0.768 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.13 ± 0.84: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 2% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1George Washington University
Colonials 1		38.66
school +0.14		Matt Logue / Taylor Milefchik 3.04
Matthew Priebe / Megan Mansfield 2.56
Soenke Jordan / Ruby Gordon 2.87		36%4–2 (67%)+1.8
2Jacksonville University
Fins 1		29.51
school +0.18		Andre Guaragna / Caroline Bourgeois 3.02
Alfonso Garcia Bringas / Logan Brickhouse 3.34
Telmo Basterra / Mia Porter 2.98		63%4–2 (67%)+0.2
4Old Dominion University
Monarchs 1		19.60
school +0.25, home +0.36		Dreugh Phillips / Makalynne Dyer 3.13
Bridget Groble / Abigail Tutt 3.15
Parker Purrington / Chris Robertson 2.71		66%2–4 (33%)−1.9
5St. Mary's College of Maryland
Seahawks 1		48.59
school +0.16		Keiran James Golden / Emma Gronda 2.42
Gloria Kevliciute / Ellie Sekowski 2.50
Lewis Cooper / Sophia Taczak 3.49		35%2–4 (33%)−0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1George Washington University Colonials 18.669.964–22.2+1.311.713%
2Jacksonville University Fins 19.519.684–23.8+0.170.061%
5St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 18.598.532–42.1−0.060.068%
4Old Dominion University Monarchs 19.608.202–43.9−1.402.098%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Andre GuaragnaJacksonville University3.023.184–23.8+0.170.061%
Alfonso Garcia BringasJacksonville University3.343.504–23.8+0.170.061%
Keiran James GoldenSt. Mary's College of Maryland2.422.362–42.1−0.060.068%
Lewis CooperSt. Mary's College of Maryland3.493.432–42.1−0.060.068%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Jacksonville University Fins 1Old Dominion University Monarchs 148%upset
12George Washington University Colonials 1St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 151%
15Jacksonville University Fins 1St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 172%
16George Washington University Colonials 1Old Dominion University Monarchs 128%upset
19St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1Old Dominion University Monarchs 127%upset
110George Washington University Colonials 1Jacksonville University Fins 130%upset
1525Jacksonville University Fins 1Old Dominion University Monarchs 148%upset
1526St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1George Washington University Colonials 148%upset
1529Jacksonville University Fins 1St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 171%
1530Old Dominion University Monarchs 1George Washington University Colonials 171%
1533Old Dominion University Monarchs 1St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 173%
1534George Washington University Colonials 1Jacksonville University Fins 131%upset

Round 1

TeamRec.11211222
George Washington University Colonials 13–0✕WWWWW✕W
Jacksonville University Fins 12–1L✕✕WWWLW
Jacksonville University Fins 22–1L✕✕WWWLW
Old Dominion University Monarchs 10–3LLL✕L✕LL
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 11–2LLLW✕WL✕
Old Dominion University Monarchs 20–3LLL✕L✕LL
George Washington University Colonials 23–0✕WWWWW✕W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 21–2LLLW✕WL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.11211222
George Washington University Colonials 11–2✕LLLWL✕W
Jacksonville University Fins 13–0W✕✕WWWWW
Jacksonville University Fins 23–0W✕✕WWWWW
Old Dominion University Monarchs 12–1WLL✕W✕WW
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 10–3LLLL✕LL✕
Old Dominion University Monarchs 22–1WLL✕W✕WW
George Washington University Colonials 21–2✕LLLWL✕W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 20–3LLLL✕LL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.1212
Jacksonville University Fins 11–0✕✕WW
Jacksonville University Fins 21–0✕✕WW
Old Dominion University Monarchs 10–1LL✕✕
Old Dominion University Monarchs 20–1LL✕✕

Round 4

TeamRec.1122
George Washington University Colonials 11–0✕W✕W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 10–1L✕L✕
George Washington University Colonials 21–0✕W✕W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 20–1L✕L✕

Round 5

TeamRec.1212
Jacksonville University Fins 10–1✕✕LL
Jacksonville University Fins 20–1✕✕LL
Old Dominion University Monarchs 11–0WW✕✕
Old Dominion University Monarchs 21–0WW✕✕

Round 6

TeamRec.1122
George Washington University Colonials 11–0✕W✕W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 10–1L✕L✕
George Washington University Colonials 21–0✕W✕W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 20–1L✕L✕

Round 7

TeamRec.1122
Old Dominion University Monarchs 10–1✕L✕L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 11–0W✕W✕
Old Dominion University Monarchs 20–1✕L✕L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 21–0W✕W✕

Round 8

TeamRec.1122
George Washington University Colonials 10–1✕LL✕
Jacksonville University Fins 11–0W✕✕W
Jacksonville University Fins 21–0W✕✕W
George Washington University Colonials 20–1✕LL✕

Round 9

TeamRec.1122
Old Dominion University Monarchs 11–0✕W✕W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 10–1L✕L✕
Old Dominion University Monarchs 21–0✕W✕W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 20–1L✕L✕

Round 10

TeamRec.1122
George Washington University Colonials 11–0✕WW✕
Jacksonville University Fins 10–1L✕✕L
Jacksonville University Fins 20–1L✕✕L
George Washington University Colonials 21–0✕WW✕

Round 11

TeamRec.1122
George Washington University Colonials 10–1✕LL✕
Old Dominion University Monarchs 11–0W✕✕W
Old Dominion University Monarchs 21–0W✕✕W
George Washington University Colonials 20–1✕LL✕

Round 12

TeamRec.1212
Jacksonville University Fins 11–0✕✕WW
Jacksonville University Fins 21–0✕✕WW
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 10–1LL✕✕
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 20–1LL✕✕

Round 13

TeamRec.1122
George Washington University Colonials 11–0✕WW✕
Old Dominion University Monarchs 10–1L✕✕L
Old Dominion University Monarchs 20–1L✕✕L
George Washington University Colonials 21–0✕WW✕

Round 14

TeamRec.1212
Jacksonville University Fins 11–0✕✕WW
Jacksonville University Fins 21–0✕✕WW
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 10–1LL✕✕
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 20–1LL✕✕

Round 15

TeamRec.11211222
George Washington University Colonials 11–2✕WWLLL✕L
Jacksonville University Fins 12–1L✕✕WWWLW
Jacksonville University Fins 22–1L✕✕WWWLW
Old Dominion University Monarchs 12–1WLL✕W✕WW
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 11–2WLLL✕LW✕
Old Dominion University Monarchs 22–1WLL✕W✕WW
George Washington University Colonials 21–2✕WWLLL✕L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 21–2WLLL✕LW✕

Round 16

TeamRec.11211222
George Washington University Colonials 10–3✕LLLLL✕L
Jacksonville University Fins 13–0W✕✕WWWWW
Jacksonville University Fins 23–0W✕✕WWWWW
Old Dominion University Monarchs 11–2WLL✕L✕WL
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 12–1WLLW✕WW✕
Old Dominion University Monarchs 21–2WLL✕L✕WL
George Washington University Colonials 20–3✕LLLLL✕L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 22–1WLLW✕WW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Jacksonville University Fins 1 2-3-4 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 1-5-6
2 George Washington University Colonials 1 2-3-4 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 1-5-6
5 Jacksonville University Fins 1 1-2-4 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 3-5-6
6 George Washington University Colonials 1 2-3-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 1-4-6
9 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 1-3-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 2-4-6
10 George Washington University Colonials 1 1-3-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1 2-4-5
3 Jacksonville University Fins 2 1-3-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 2-4-6
4 George Washington University Colonials 2 1-2-5 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 3-4-6
7 Jacksonville University Fins 2 1-2-4 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 3-5-6
8 Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 1-2-5 def. George Washington University Colonials 2 3-4-6
11 Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 1-2-5 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 3-4-6
12 Jacksonville University Fins 2 1-2-4 def. George Washington University Colonials 2 3-5-6
13 Jacksonville University Fins 1 1-2-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 3-4-6
14 George Washington University Colonials 2 1-3-6 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 2-4-5
15 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 1-2-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2 3-4-5
16 George Washington University Colonials 1 1-3-5 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 2-4-6
17 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 1-2-4 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 3-5-6
18 Jacksonville University Fins 1 1-2-4 def. George Washington University Colonials 2 3-5-6
19 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 1-2-3 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 4-5-6
20 George Washington University Colonials 1 1-2-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2 3-4-5
21 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 1-2-5 def. George Washington University Colonials 2 3-4-6
22 Jacksonville University Fins 1 1-2-5 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 3-4-6
23 George Washington University Colonials 1 1-2-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 3-4-6
24 Jacksonville University Fins 2 1-2-5 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 3-4-6
25 Jacksonville University Fins 1 1-2-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 3-4-6
26 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 1-2-6 def. George Washington University Colonials 1 3-4-5
29 Jacksonville University Fins 1 1-2-5 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 3-4-6
30 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 1-4-5 def. George Washington University Colonials 1 2-3-6
33 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 1-2-5 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 3-4-6
34 George Washington University Colonials 1 2-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1 1-5-6
27 Jacksonville University Fins 2 1-2-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 3-4-6
28 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 1-3-5 def. George Washington University Colonials 2 2-4-6
31 Jacksonville University Fins 2 1-2-5 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 3-4-6
32 Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 1-2-4 def. George Washington University Colonials 2 3-5-6
35 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 1-2-4 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 3-5-6 DNF
36 Jacksonville University Fins 2 1-3-6 def. George Washington University Colonials 2 2-4-5

Conditions — 03/27/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1022.2 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.2 kn
avg  ·  max 10.2 kn
Gusts to 20.4 kn
From E (96°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover58% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1022.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Old Dominion — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Old Dominion in this breeze: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Old Dominion by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (76 labelled fleet-race days at Old Dominion).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →