Navigate

SMC Quad Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 13 13
2 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 32 32
3 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4 36 MRP 36 MRP
4 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 39 39
5 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 42 42
6 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 46 MRP 46 MRP
7 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 3 47 47
8 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 48 48
9 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 50 50
10 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 62 MRP 62 MRP
11 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 62 MRP 62 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 2 3 3 1 3 1 13 Maxwell Brill '20
Kent Mathes '20
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 4 1 4 7 10 6 32 Ellie Ungar '19
Ashley Wagner '20
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4 1 2 1 2 2 8 36 MRP
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 6 4 6 8 8 7 39 Sean Linden '21
Bartholomew Winn '21
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 8 7 8 11 5 3 42 Jessica Bennett '20
Dyson Lord '19
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 3 5 7 5 1 5 46 MRP
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 3 7 10 10 6 4 10 47 Olivia Windemuller '19
Abigail Tutt '21
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 5 6 5 10 11 11 48 Hannah Pokorny '21
Julia Williams-Portland '21
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 9 11 11 9 6 4 50 Bridget Groble '22
Victoria Ewing '19
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 10 8 9 4 9 2 62 MRP Jack Hogan '22
Maya Rabinowitz '21
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 DNF 9 2 3 7 9 62 MRP Hunter Cutting '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (41 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas555555
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1111111
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2222222
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3333333
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs 1666666
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs 2777777
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs 3888888
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1999999
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2101010101010
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3111111111111
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4444444

Conditions — 03/03/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 51%  ·  Pressure 1017.3 hPa

Temperature

45°F
↑ 50°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 32°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
16.8 kn
avg  ·  max 17.9 kn
Gusts to 38.5 kn
From NNW (338°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover37% Sunshine9.7 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1017.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 18 kn · N 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Mary's: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.06 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.36 ± 0.34)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →