The Seahawk Wave Showdown

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 1 28
2 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 54
3 Tulane University Tulane University Angry Wave 65
4 Tulane University Tulane University Riptide 73
5 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 79
6 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 91
7 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 2 150
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 1 A 2 2 1 2 1 8 Cameron Giblin '23
Kit Stoll '23
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 A 1 7 4 3 5 20 Lewis Cooper '21
Sophia Taczak '21
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 1 B 3 1 2 12 2 20 Marcus Huttunen '24
Gillian Perrell '24
Tulane University Tulane University Angry Wave A 5 3 11 1 3 23 Thad Lettsome '24
Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez '24
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 A 6 4 5 5 4 24 Gloria Kevliciute '21
Laura Dennison '21
Tulane University Tulane University Riptide B 4 5 8 4 11 32 William Keenan '23
Grace Siwicki '22
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 B 7 11 3 7 6 34 Keiran James Golden '24 [1-5]
Ellie Sekowski '23 [1-2]
Rachel O'Neill '24 [3-5]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 A 11 6 7 6 8 38 Katherine Bennett '22
Dexter Mueller '24
Tulane University Tulane University Riptide A 9 9 6 10 7 41 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22 [1-5]
Alanna Austin '21 [1-4]
Isabella Bentz '24 [5]
Tulane University Tulane University Angry Wave B 8 8 9 8 9 42 Caelan Watts '21
Katherine Cartiglia '21
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 B 12 10 10 9 12 53 Madison Bashaw '24 [1-5]
Allison Gingerich '21 [1-2]
Emma Gronda '22 [3-5]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 B 10 12 12 11 10 55 Hunter Cutting '21 [1-5]
Lucas Masiello '23 [1-3]
Sam Muir '22 [4-5]
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 2 A DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 75
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 2 B DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 75
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (19 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 111111
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 233333
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 355555
Tulane UniversityTulane University Angry Wave1111111111
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 199999
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 21515151515
Tulane UniversityTulane University Riptide1313131313

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 122222
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 244444
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 366666
Tulane UniversityTulane University Angry Wave1212121212
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 11010101010
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 21616161616
Tulane UniversityTulane University Riptide1414141414

Conditions — 03/26/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1010.5 hPa

Temperature

74°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
14.2 kn
avg  ·  max 16.4 kn
Gusts to 34.6 kn
From WSW (245°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover24% Sunshine8.8 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1010.5 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 16 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Mary's: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.10)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.14 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.00 ± 0.35)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →