Stuart Walker Open

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 38
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 61
3 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 97
4 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 104
5 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 134
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 A 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 11 Samuel Shea '19
Kelsey Foster '20
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 B 1 3 3 5 3 5 4 3 27 Pere Puig '19
Emily Calandrella '20
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 A 6 2 5 2 5 4 2 2 28 Charlotte Lenz '20
Marisa Permatteo '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 B 8 4 1 4 4 2 5 5 33 Elena Gonick '20
Jessica Thorson '19
Bates College Bates College Bobcats A 2 5 BKD 3 2 6 6 6 34 Amy Macdonald '18
Mary Ferguson '18
McGill University McGill University Redbirds B 7 6 4 6 6 3 3 4 39 Nathan Drezner '20
Isaiah Riesman-Tremonte '18
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers B 4 8 6 7 9 7 10 8 59 Nathaniel Wiener '18
Erich Wu '19
Bates College Bates College Bobcats B 5 10 7 8 8 8 8 9 63 Carter Goodell '19
Katherine Schell '19
McGill University McGill University Redbirds A 9 7 8 9 7 9 9 7 65 William Gleckner '17
Isabelle Hickey '18
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers A 10 9 9 10 10 10 7 10 75 Alexie Lessing '19
Nick Jaczko '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats11223344
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds22334455
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers33445566
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 144556677
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 255667788

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats66778899
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds7788991010
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers8899101011
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 19910101122
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 21010112233

Conditions — 09/17/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1018.9 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.4 kn
avg  ·  max 11.6 kn
Gusts to 28.0 kn
From SSW (191°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1018.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 15 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Middlebury: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.20)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.28
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.37 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.20 means a rating gap counts about 18% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Middlebury by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Middlebury, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →