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NEISA Central Series 4

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Boston University Boston University Terriers 29
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 86
3 Brown University Brown University Bears 103
4 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 114
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 122
6 Worcester Polytech Worcester Polytech Worcester Polytech 144
7 University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 146
8 University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 215
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Boston University Boston University Terriers B 1 1 1 4 2 3 2 14 Michael Sabourin '20
Olivia Cronin-Golomb '20
Boston University Boston University Terriers A 3 2 2 1 1 2 4 15 Charles Welsh '18
Andrew Reed '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 B 6 3 7 5 3 4 1 29 Aaron Klein '18
Nihal Pai '20
Brown University Brown University Bears A 2 9 3 8 4 5 3 34 Macklin Fluehr '17
Sawyer Balint '20
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 A 9 5 4 6 5 6 DNF 52 John Duncan '19
Marisa Permatteo '19
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats A 5 4 5 7 8 11 13 53 Peter Sterflinger '17 [1-7]
Lily Doolin '18 [1-2]
Micahel Campbell '17 [3-7]
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen A 7 11 8 9 12 1 5 53 Noah Brayer '18
Emma Vogel '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 A 12 10 6 3 6 8 12 57 Bobby Mclaughlin '17
Kelsey Foster '20
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats B 11 8 10 11 7 7 7 61 Thomas Pluchino '18 [1-7]
Marina Merchant '18 [1-2]
Caoilinn Boyle '20 [3-7]
Worcester Polytech Worcester Polytech Worcester Polytech A 8 13 9 10 13 9 6 68
Brown University Brown University Bears B 4 6 13 12 10 10 14 69 Gabriel Hannon '20
Ian Light '20
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 B 15 12 11 2 9 12 9 70 Andrew Savage '19
Kahler Newsham '19
Worcester Polytech Worcester Polytech Worcester Polytech B 10 7 12 13 11 13 10 76
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen B 13 14 15 14 15 14 8 93 Griffin Brayer '20 [1-7]
Emily Pearson '20 [1-2, 5-7]
Eileen Devane '20 [3-4]
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs A 14 16 14 15 14 15 11 99 Kelsey Delosh '17
Courtney Grippin '17
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs B 16 15 DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS 116 Shannon Mckeown '18 [1-4]
Hanna Desilets '17 [5-7]
Melanie Muzyka '19 [1-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (40 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers44557710
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears55443324
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats771010111112
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen1212111110107
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 1101077554
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 21111121213131
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs131311141415
Worcester PolytechWorcester Polytech Worcester Polytech111313121211

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers14141515191921
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears151514141113
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats19192121222223
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen23232222212119
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 121211919151514
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 22222232324243
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs242433445
Worcester PolytechWorcester Polytech Worcester Polytech332424232322

Conditions — 04/15/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 42%  ·  Pressure 1024.6 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.2 kn
avg  ·  max 14.7 kn
Gusts to 28.6 kn
From SW (221°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover47% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity42% Pressure1024.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 15 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.12 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →