Princeton University '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.47 (fleet -0.66) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–9 (18%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 2–1 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 0–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (11 matches) the record is 2–9 against 1.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-03-05 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | -0.22 | 1.10 | 2–1 | 1.0 | +1.32 | 0.9 | 28% |
| 2019-03-09 | Wood Trophy | skipper | -0.44 | -3.44 | 0–8 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.0 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 17.3 | -2.31 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 8 | 0% | — |
| Stony Brook Cup/Brendan Brown-McCue Memorial | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.3 | -0.06 |
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 3 | 18.0 | — |
| Army Spring Open | Skipper | B | 2 | 2.5 | 0.90 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
