Phebe Corckran King Women's Team Race

HostCharleston
Date02/26/2022
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	19–2
2	Dartmouth College	Big Green	17–4
3	Cornell University	Big Red	13–8
4	Jacksonville University	Fins	9–12
5	College of Charleston	Cougars	9–10
6	George Washington University	Colonials	3–17
7	University of South Florida	Bulls	1–19

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 16,026 team race matches sailed before 2022-02-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 64 of 72 matches (89%) with a log-loss of 0.340 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.31 ± 0.22: an orderly event, more orderly than 77% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	1	10.47 school +0.42	Michelle Lahrkamp / Grace Austin 3.53 Stephanie Houck / Gwendolyn Donahue 3.23 Hannah Freeman / Patricia Gerli 3.19	90%	19–2 (90%)	+0.0
2	Dartmouth College Big Green	2	9.40 school +0.18	Maddie Hawkins / Yumi Yoshiyasu 3.65 Taylor Eastman / Aisling Sullivan 2.71 Gray Hemans / Eloise Burn	74%	17–4 (81%)	+1.4
3	Cornell University Big Red	3	8.48	Brooke Shachoy / Amelia Neumann 2.80 Lilly Myers / Gabbi Delbello Bridget Green / Jana Laurendeau	57%	13–8 (62%)	+1.1
4	Jacksonville University Fins	4	8.07 school +0.11	Emily Allen / Grace Benzal 2.60 Charlotte Rose / Rori Bywater 3.09 Maartje Van Dam / Caroline Bourgeois 2.16 6–8 Maartje Van Dam / Elizabeth Johnson 2.02 3–4	49%	9–12 (43%)	−1.3
5	College of Charleston Cougars	5	6.68 school +0.42	Kiera Oreardon / Roxanne Snyder 2.30 Fredrikke Foss / Lucy Klempen 1.76 Grace Squires / Kalea Woodard 2.06	30%	10–10 (50%)	+4.1
6	George Washington University Colonials	6	6.45 school +0.13	Emma Aubuchon / Ruby Gordon 2.59 Islay Van Dusen / Kaleigh Morgan 0–13 Avery Canavan / Abbie Chipps 0–9 Islay Van Dusen / Abbie Chipps 3–4 Avery Canavan / Kaleigh Morgan 3–4 Avery Canavan / Mikaela Smith 0–4	25%	3–17 (15%)	−2.0
7	University of South Florida Bulls	7	6.28 school +0.07	Sydney Monahan / Olivia Smith 2.12 Heidi Hicks / Jewel "Min Min" Kelly 1.68 Emma Shakespeare / Mary Mclauchlin 2.34 1–16 Emma Shakespeare / Carolina Perez Rovira 2.33 0–3	21%	1–19 (5%)	−3.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
5	College of Charleston	6.68	7.97	10–10	5.9	+1.29	3.9	2%
2	Dartmouth College	9.40	9.97	17–4	15.6	+0.57	0.6	29%
3	Cornell University	8.48	8.83	13–8	11.9	+0.35	0.3	37%
1	Stanford University	10.47	10.48	19–2	19.0	+0.01	0.0	67%
4	Jacksonville University	8.07	7.67	9–12	10.3	−0.40	0.4	84%
6	George Washington University	6.45	5.65	3–17	5.0	−0.80	1.1	94%
7	University of South Florida	6.28	4.45	1–19	4.3	−1.83	3.6	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Kiera Oreardon	College of Charleston	2.30	3.59	10–10	5.9	+1.29	3.9	2%
Fredrikke Foss	College of Charleston	1.76	3.06	10–10	5.9	+1.29	3.9	2%
Lilly Myers	Cornell University	2.30	2.65	13–8	11.9	+0.35	0.3	37%
Hannah Freeman	Stanford University	3.19	3.20	19–2	19.0	+0.01	0.0	67%
Maartje Van Dam	Jacksonville University	2.16	1.76	9–12	10.3	−0.40	0.4	84%
Charlotte Rose	Jacksonville University	3.09	2.69	9–12	10.3	−0.40	0.4	84%
Avery Canavan	George Washington University	1.58	0.79	3–17	5.0	−0.80	1.1	94%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Dartmouth College	George Washington University	95%
1	2	Cornell University	Jacksonville University	53%
1	3	Stanford University	College of Charleston	98%
1	4	Dartmouth College	University of South Florida	95%
1	5	Cornell University	George Washington University	88%
1	6	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	19%	upset
1	7	Stanford University	University of South Florida	98%
1	8	Dartmouth College	Cornell University	72%
1	9	College of Charleston	George Washington University	59%
1	10	Stanford University	Jacksonville University	93%
1	11	Cornell University	University of South Florida	89%
1	12	Dartmouth College	College of Charleston	94%
1	13	Stanford University	George Washington University	98%
1	14	Jacksonville University	University of South Florida	84%
1	15	Cornell University	College of Charleston	85%
1	16	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	75%
1	17	Jacksonville University	George Washington University	84%
1	18	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	60%
1	19	Stanford University	Cornell University	88%
1	20	Dartmouth College	Jacksonville University	78%
1	21	George Washington University	University of South Florida	53%
2	22	Dartmouth College	George Washington University	95%
2	23	Cornell University	Jacksonville University	59%
2	24	Stanford University	College of Charleston	98%
2	25	Dartmouth College	University of South Florida	96%
2	26	Cornell University	George Washington University	88%
2	27	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	19%	upset
2	28	Stanford University	University of South Florida	99%
2	29	Cornell University	Dartmouth College	29%	upset
2	30	College of Charleston	George Washington University	56%
2	31	Stanford University	Jacksonville University	92%
2	32	Cornell University	University of South Florida	90%
2	33	Dartmouth College	College of Charleston	94%
2	34	Stanford University	George Washington University	98%
2	35	Jacksonville University	University of South Florida	84%
2	36	Cornell University	College of Charleston	86%
2	37	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	74%
2	38	Jacksonville University	George Washington University	83%
2	39	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	60%
2	40	Stanford University	Cornell University	88%
2	41	Dartmouth College	Jacksonville University	79%
2	42	George Washington University	University of South Florida	56%
3	43	Dartmouth College	George Washington University	95%
3	44	Jacksonville University	Cornell University	40%	upset
3	45	Stanford University	College of Charleston	98%
3	46	Dartmouth College	University of South Florida	96%
3	47	Cornell University	George Washington University	88%
3	48	Jacksonville University	College of Charleston	81%
3	49	Stanford University	University of South Florida	98%
3	50	Dartmouth College	Cornell University	71%
3	51	College of Charleston	George Washington University	55%
3	52	Stanford University	Jacksonville University	92%
3	53	Cornell University	University of South Florida	91%
3	54	Dartmouth College	College of Charleston	94%
3	55	Stanford University	George Washington University	98%
3	56	Jacksonville University	University of South Florida	85%
3	57	Cornell University	College of Charleston	86%
3	58	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	73%
3	59	Jacksonville University	George Washington University	83%
3	60	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	61%
3	61	Stanford University	Cornell University	87%
3	62	Dartmouth College	Jacksonville University	79%
3	63	George Washington University	University of South Florida	57%
4	67	Dartmouth College	Cornell University	71%
4	68	Stanford University	Jacksonville University	92%
4	69	Dartmouth College	Jacksonville University	79%
4	70	Cornell University	Stanford University	13%	upset
4	71	Jacksonville University	Cornell University	39%	upset
4	72	Dartmouth College	Stanford University	27%	upset
5	64	College of Charleston	George Washington University	54%
5	65	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	61%
5	66	University of South Florida	George Washington University	43%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Green	Red	Fins	Cougars	Colonials	Bulls
Stanford University Cardinal	6–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	5–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	4–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	2–4	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	3–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	1–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of South Florida Bulls	0–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Green	Red	Fins	Cougars	Colonials	Bulls
Stanford University Cardinal	6–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	4–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	5–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	2–4	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	3–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	1–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of South Florida Bulls	0–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Green	Red	Fins	Cougars	Colonials	Bulls
Stanford University Cardinal	6–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	5–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	3–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	4–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	2–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	1–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of South Florida Bulls	0–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Green	Red	Fins
Stanford University Cardinal	1–2	✕	L	L	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	3–0	W	✕	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	1–2	W	L	✕	L
Jacksonville University Fins	1–2	L	L	W	✕

Round 5

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Colonials	Bulls
College of Charleston Cougars	2–0	✕	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	0–2	L	✕	L
University of South Florida Bulls	1–1	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
2	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Fins	2-4-6
3	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
4	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
5	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
6	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
7	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
8	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
9	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Colonials	2-3-6
10	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Fins	1-5-6
11	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
12	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
13	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Colonials	2-3-6
14	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
15	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Cougars	2-4-6
16	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
17	Fins	1-3-5	def.	Colonials	2-4-6
18	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
19	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
20	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Fins	2-5-6
21	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
22	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
23	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
24	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
25	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
26	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Colonials	2-4-6
27	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
28	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
29	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
30	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
31	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Fins	1-5-6
32	Big Red	1-3-4	def.	Bulls	2-5-6
33	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
34	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
35	Fins	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
36	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Cougars	2-4-6
37	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
38	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
39	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
40	Cardinal	1-3-5	def.	Big Red	2-4-6
41	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
42	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
43	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
44	Fins	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
45	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
46	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
47	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
48	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
49	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
50	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
51	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
52	Cardinal	2-3-5	def.	Fins	1-4-6
53	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
54	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
55	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
56	Fins	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
57	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
58	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
59	Fins	1-3-6	def.	Colonials	2-4-5
60	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
61	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
62	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
63	Colonials	1-3-6	def.	Bulls	2-4-5
67	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
68	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
69	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
70	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
71	Fins	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
72	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
64	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
65	Cougars	1-3-6	def.	Bulls	2-4-5
66	Bulls	1-3-5	def.	Colonials	2-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Hannah Freeman '24 Michelle Lahrkamp '23 Stephanie Houck '21	Patricia Gerli '23 Grace Austin '24 Gwendolyn Donahue '24
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Gray Hemans '25 Maddie Hawkins '24 Taylor Eastman '24	Eloise Burn '21 Yumi Yoshiyasu '24 Aisling Sullivan '22
Cornell University	Big Red	Bridget Green '25 Brooke Shachoy '22 Lilly Myers '23	Jana Laurendeau '23 Amelia Neumann '25 Gabbi Delbello '23
Jacksonville University	Fins	Charlotte Rose '22 Emily Allen '25 Maartje Van Dam '23	Rori Bywater '25 Grace Benzal '23 Caroline Bourgeois '22 Elizabeth Johnson '22
College of Charleston	Cougars	Fredrikke Foss '25 Grace Squires '24 Kiera Oreardon '22	Lucy Klempen '24 Kalea Woodard '24 Roxanne Snyder '23
George Washington University	Colonials	Avery Canavan '25 Emma Aubuchon '23 Islay Van Dusen '23	Abbie Chipps '25 Kaleigh Morgan '24 Mikaela Smith '22 Ruby Gordon '23
University of South Florida	Bulls	Emma Shakespeare '24 Heidi Hicks '25 Sydney Monahan '23	Carolina Perez Rovira '22 Mary Mclauchlin '25 Jewel "Min Min" Kelly '24 Olivia Smith '23

Conditions — 02/26/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 72% · Pressure 1025.8 hPa

Temperature

64°F

↑ 68°F ↓ 58°F

Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.0 kn

avg · max 10.2 kn

Gusts to 18.9 kn

From ENE (72°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover69% Sunshine8.2 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1025.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Charleston — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Charleston in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu