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# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 2 22 22
2 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 6 33 33
3 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 8 50 50
4 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 51 51
5 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 9 52 52
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 54 54
7 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 55 55
8 Brown University Brown University Bears 5 55 55
9 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 10 64 64
10 Brown University Brown University Bears 4 68 68
11 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 69 69
12 Brown University Brown University Bears 3 70 70
13 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 1 70 70
14 Brown University Brown University Bears 6 74 74
15 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 3 92 92
16 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 5 104 104
17 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 4 104 104
18 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 7 105 105
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 2 2 1 7 3 5 1 3 22 James Paul '23
Maya Nguyen '24
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 6 8 6 11 4 1 2 1 33 Gray Hemans '25
Reese Bragg '25
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 8 1 8 1 2 11 8 OCS 50 Oliver Hurwitz '25
Eliza Crocker '23
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 6 9 5 7 6 12 6 51 Connor Macken '24
Sierra Bornheim '24
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 9 17 4 10 1 7 3 10 52 William Michels '25
Caroline Oyster '24
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 5 2 6 10 3 16 12 54 Chloe Holder '23
Paige Tyler '22
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 7 13 8 8 2 10 7 55 Jed Bell '23
Catherine Morrissette '24
Brown University Brown University Bears 5 11 11 3 12 8 5 5 55 Emily Mueller '25
Francesca Edmands '25
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 10 14 10 12 9 4 13 2 64 Sarah Young '25
Madeleine Regulla '25
Brown University Brown University Bears 4 9 3 2 11 18 14 11 68 Helen Horangic '25
Janelle Li '25
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 16 5 9 6 9 15 9 69 Annika Fedde '23
Alessandra Torres '24
Brown University Brown University Bears 3 4 14 BKD 5 12 17 8 70 Leyton Borcherding '25
Lily Shore '24
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 1 12 17 4 13 13 7 4 70 Nicholas Hurley '23
Drew Clutterbuck '23
Brown University Brown University Bears 6 3 7 13 14 14 4 OCS 74 Mason Stang '25 [1-7]
Jean Wanlass '25 [1-3, 7]
Menasha Leport '25 [4-6]
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 3 10 15 14 16 15 9 13 92 Michael Hanrahan '24
Elise Donovan '24
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 5 15 12 15 18 17 11 16 104 Martha Rand '24
Zoe Chen '23
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 4 18 18 16 15 16 6 15 104 Rob Mailley '24
Lynne Li '24
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 7 13 16 17 17 10 18 14 105 Griffin Lapham '25
Faye Benjamin '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (15 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 11111111
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 22222222
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 33333333
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 44444444
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 55555555
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 66666666
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 17777777
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 1016161616161616
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 28888888
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 39999999
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 410101010101010
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 511111111111111
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 612121212121212
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 713131313131313
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 814141414141414
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 915151515151515
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 117171717171717
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 218181818181818

Conditions — 09/11/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 58%  ·  Pressure 1020.8 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.8 kn
avg  ·  max 7.8 kn
Gusts to 17.7 kn
From WSW (248°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover45% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1020.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Brown: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.07 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.24 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Brown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (78 labelled days at Brown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →