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Frank L. Mendleblatt Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 20–4
2 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 14–10
3 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 12–12
4 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 9–15
5 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 5–19

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 14,251 team race matches sailed before 2020-02-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 43 of 60 matches (72%) with a log-loss of 0.549 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.06 ± 0.26: a typical event, more orderly than 36% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Yale University
Bulldogs		110.56
school +0.19		Christine Klingler / Meredith Ryan 3.52
Nicholas Marwell / Anisha Arcot 3.38 16–2
Louisa Nordstrom / Helena Ware 3.44 16–2
Louisa Nordstrom / Claudia Loiacono 3.44 4–2
Nicholas Marwell / Claudia Loiacono 3.25 4–2		82%20–4 (83%)+0.4
2Jacksonville University
Fins		29.87
school +0.25		Andre Guaragna / Madison Reynolds 3.02
Telmo Basterra / Mia Porter 3.04
Alfonso Garcia Bringas / Grace Benzal 3.44		67%14–10 (58%)−2.2
3College of Charleston
Cougars		39.11
school +0.52		Brandon Geller / Anna Sherry
Jack Howard / Elizabeth Dipietro
James Whitmore / Mary Morano 2.56		47%12–12 (50%)+0.8
4University of South Florida
Bulls		48.49
school +0.30, home +0.35		Marina Barzaghi / Carolina Perez Rovira 2.98
Kathryn Bornarth / Samantha Kappaz 2.57
Christian Koules / Lexie Foos 2.15 6–12
Christian Koules / John Monahan 2.12 3–3		31%9–15 (38%)+1.5
5Eckerd College
Tritons		58.14
school +0.14		Connor Ratcliff / Camryn Kennedy 2.48
Daniel Vail / Liam Farese 2.66
Ian Willoughby / Jackie Morrison 2.77		23%5–19 (21%)−0.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
4University of South Florida8.498.839–157.5+0.340.431%
3College of Charleston9.119.2612–1211.3+0.160.145%
1Yale University10.5610.6820–419.6+0.120.054%
5Eckerd College8.148.015–195.5−0.130.068%
2Jacksonville University9.879.4014–1016.2−0.470.790%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Christian KoulesUniversity of South Florida2.152.499–157.5+0.340.431%
Connor RatcliffEckerd College2.482.355–195.5−0.130.068%
Ian WilloughbyEckerd College2.772.645–195.5−0.130.068%
Andre GuaragnaJacksonville University3.022.5614–1016.2−0.470.790%
Alfonso Garcia BringasJacksonville University3.442.9714–1016.2−0.470.790%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11College of CharlestonEckerd College72%
12University of South FloridaJacksonville University19%upset
13College of CharlestonYale University18%upset
14Jacksonville UniversityEckerd College85%
15Yale UniversityUniversity of South Florida90%
16Jacksonville UniversityCollege of Charleston68%
17Yale UniversityEckerd College92%
18University of South FloridaCollege of Charleston34%upset
19Yale UniversityJacksonville University65%
110University of South FloridaEckerd College58%
211College of CharlestonEckerd College72%
212Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of South Florida81%
213Yale UniversityCollege of Charleston82%
214Jacksonville UniversityEckerd College85%
215Yale UniversityUniversity of South Florida89%
216College of CharlestonJacksonville University32%upset
217Yale UniversityEckerd College92%
218University of South FloridaCollege of Charleston35%upset
219Yale UniversityJacksonville University64%
220Eckerd CollegeUniversity of South Florida41%upset
321Eckerd CollegeCollege of Charleston28%upset
322Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of South Florida80%
323Yale UniversityCollege of Charleston81%
324Jacksonville UniversityEckerd College85%
325Yale UniversityUniversity of South Florida89%
326College of CharlestonJacksonville University32%upset
327Yale UniversityEckerd College92%
328College of CharlestonUniversity of South Florida65%
329Yale UniversityJacksonville University64%
330Eckerd CollegeUniversity of South Florida41%upset
431College of CharlestonEckerd College72%
432University of South FloridaJacksonville University20%upset
433Yale UniversityCollege of Charleston81%
434Eckerd CollegeJacksonville University15%upset
435Yale UniversityUniversity of South Florida89%
436Jacksonville UniversityCollege of Charleston68%
437Yale UniversityEckerd College92%
438College of CharlestonUniversity of South Florida65%
439Jacksonville UniversityYale University36%upset
440University of South FloridaEckerd College59%
541College of CharlestonEckerd College72%
542University of South FloridaJacksonville University20%upset
543Yale UniversityCollege of Charleston81%
544Jacksonville UniversityEckerd College85%
545Yale UniversityUniversity of South Florida89%
546Jacksonville UniversityCollege of Charleston68%
547Yale UniversityEckerd College92%
548University of South FloridaCollege of Charleston36%upset
549Yale UniversityJacksonville University64%
550Eckerd CollegeUniversity of South Florida40%upset
651College of CharlestonEckerd College72%
652Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of South Florida80%
653College of CharlestonYale University19%upset
654Jacksonville UniversityEckerd College85%
655Yale UniversityUniversity of South Florida89%
656Jacksonville UniversityCollege of Charleston68%
657Yale UniversityEckerd College92%
658College of CharlestonUniversity of South Florida64%
659Jacksonville UniversityYale University36%upset
660University of South FloridaEckerd College60%

Round 1

TeamRec.BulldogsFinsCougarsBullsTritons
Yale University Bulldogs3–1✕WLWW
Jacksonville University Fins2–2L✕WLW
College of Charleston Cougars2–2WL✕LW
University of South Florida Bulls3–1LWW✕W
Eckerd College Tritons0–4LLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.BulldogsFinsCougarsBullsTritons
Yale University Bulldogs4–0✕WWWW
Jacksonville University Fins2–2L✕LWW
College of Charleston Cougars2–2LW✕LW
University of South Florida Bulls1–3LLW✕L
Eckerd College Tritons1–3LLLW✕

Round 3

TeamRec.BulldogsFinsCougarsBullsTritons
Yale University Bulldogs4–0✕WWWW
Jacksonville University Fins2–2L✕LWW
College of Charleston Cougars2–2LW✕WL
University of South Florida Bulls0–4LLL✕L
Eckerd College Tritons2–2LLWW✕

Round 4

TeamRec.BulldogsFinsCougarsBullsTritons
Yale University Bulldogs3–1✕LWWW
Jacksonville University Fins2–2W✕WLL
College of Charleston Cougars2–2LL✕WW
University of South Florida Bulls2–2LWL✕W
Eckerd College Tritons1–3LWLL✕

Round 5

TeamRec.BulldogsFinsCougarsBullsTritons
Yale University Bulldogs4–0✕WWWW
Jacksonville University Fins2–2L✕WLW
College of Charleston Cougars1–3LL✕LW
University of South Florida Bulls2–2LWW✕L
Eckerd College Tritons1–3LLLW✕

Round 6

TeamRec.BulldogsFinsCougarsBullsTritons
Yale University Bulldogs2–2✕LLWW
Jacksonville University Fins4–0W✕WWW
College of Charleston Cougars3–1WL✕WW
University of South Florida Bulls1–3LLL✕W
Eckerd College Tritons0–4LLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-5 def. Eckerd College Tritons 3-4-6
2 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-5
3 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-6 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-4-5
4 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-4 def. Eckerd College Tritons 1-5-6
5 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
6 Jacksonville University Fins 1-4-5 def. College of Charleston Cougars 2-3-6
7 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Eckerd College Tritons 3-4-6
8 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-6 def. College of Charleston Cougars 3-4-5
9 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-5-6
10 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Eckerd College Tritons 3-4-6
11 College of Charleston Cougars 2-3-5 def. Eckerd College Tritons 1-4-6
12 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
13 Yale University Bulldogs 1-4-5 def. College of Charleston Cougars 2-3-6
14 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-6 def. Eckerd College Tritons 3-4-5
15 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
16 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-5
17 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. Eckerd College Tritons 3-5-6
18 University of South Florida Bulls 1-4-5 def. College of Charleston Cougars 2-3-6
19 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
20 Eckerd College Tritons 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
21 Eckerd College Tritons 1-2-6 def. College of Charleston Cougars 3-4-5
22 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
23 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. College of Charleston Cougars 3-4-6
24 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-6 def. Eckerd College Tritons 3-4-5
25 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. University of South Florida Bulls 4-5-6
26 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-5
27 Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-4 def. Eckerd College Tritons 1-5-6
28 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-3 def. University of South Florida Bulls 4-5-6
29 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
30 Eckerd College Tritons 1-2-3 def. University of South Florida Bulls 4-5-6
31 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-3 def. Eckerd College Tritons 4-5-6
32 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-5-6
33 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. College of Charleston Cougars 3-4-6
34 Eckerd College Tritons 1-3-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-4-6
35 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
36 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. College of Charleston Cougars 3-4-6
37 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Eckerd College Tritons 3-4-6
38 College of Charleston Cougars 2-3-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-4-6
39 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-6 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-4-5
40 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-6 def. Eckerd College Tritons 3-4-5
41 College of Charleston Cougars 2-3-5 def. Eckerd College Tritons 1-4-6
42 University of South Florida Bulls 2-3-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1-4-6
43 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. College of Charleston Cougars 3-5-6
44 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-5 def. Eckerd College Tritons 1-4-6
45 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
46 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-3 def. College of Charleston Cougars 4-5-6
47 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Eckerd College Tritons 3-4-6
48 University of South Florida Bulls 1-3-6 def. College of Charleston Cougars 2-4-5
49 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
50 Eckerd College Tritons 1-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 2-5-6
51 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-6 def. Eckerd College Tritons 3-4-5
52 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
53 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-5 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-4-6
54 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-5 def. Eckerd College Tritons 1-4-6
55 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
56 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-6 def. College of Charleston Cougars 3-4-5
57 Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-4 def. Eckerd College Tritons 1-5-6
58 College of Charleston Cougars 2-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-5-6
59 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-4 def. Yale University Bulldogs 1-5-6
60 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-4 def. Eckerd College Tritons 3-5-6

Conditions — 02/22/2020 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1025.6 hPa

Temperature

59°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.8 kn
avg  ·  max 14.4 kn
Gusts to 24.7 kn
From NNE (18°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover5% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1025.6 hPa

What this breeze does at South Florida — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at South Florida in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at South Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (75 labelled fleet-race days at South Florida).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →