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Cary-Price Memorial

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 8 12 20
2 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 13 8 21
3 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 15 12 27
4 Red Hawks Red Hawks Red Hawks 15 15 30
5 Boilermakers Boilermakers Boilermakers 12 19 31
6 University of Toledo University of Toledo Rockets 20 17 37
7 Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 13 30 43
8 Spartans 1 Spartans 1 Spartans 1 21 24 45
9 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 31 15 46
10 Hillsdale College Hillsdale College Chargers 21 27 48
11 Spartans 2 Spartans 2 Spartans 2 30 26 56
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 3 1 4 8 Geoffrey Owens '18 [1-3]
Logan Noel '19 [1-2]
Kyra Martin '18 [3]
Boilermakers Boilermakers Boilermakers 2 4 6 12
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 5 5 3 13 Luke Lecoche '18
Sarah Sumich '19
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 9 2 2 13 Kelly Logacho '18
Josh Kaplan '19
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 9 5 15 Kyle Doyle '20
Murphy Vandervest '21
Red Hawks Red Hawks Red Hawks 6 8 1 15
University of Toledo University of Toledo Rockets 10 3 7 20 Kristen Ruta '19
Hayden Graham '19
Hillsdale College Hillsdale College Chargers 4 7 10 21 Kaitlyn Rowland '21
Leahi Johsens '21
Spartans 1 Spartans 1 Spartans 1 7 6 8 21
Spartans 2 Spartans 2 Spartans 2 8 11 11 30
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish DNF 10 9 31 Colleen Wiechart '19 [1-2]
Thomas Yaeger Jr '18 [3]
Kata Lamb '20 [1-2]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 3 2 3 8 Jonathan Atler '18
Elias Passas '19
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 1 7 4 12 Bay Hodge '21 [1-3]
David Millstein '18 [1-2]
Madison Jewell '20 [3]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 5 6 1 12 Sarah Youtt '21
Hayden Smith '20
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2 1 DNF 15 James Kennedy '20
Mitchell Koppinger '20
Red Hawks Red Hawks Red Hawks 4 3 8 15
University of Toledo University of Toledo Rockets 6 9 2 17 Rebeccca Sadoski '18
Benjamin Riley '19
Boilermakers Boilermakers Boilermakers 8 5 6 19
Spartans 1 Spartans 1 Spartans 1 9 10 5 24
Spartans 2 Spartans 2 Spartans 2 10 4 DNF 26
Hillsdale College Hillsdale College Chargers 7 8 DNF 27 Jacob Weaver '18 [1-3]
Ryan Goff '21 [1, 3]
Micah Perry '21 [2]
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 11 DNF 7 30 Andrew Hakopian '20
Ryan Hunter '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons9911
Hillsdale CollegeHillsdale College Chargers114
Red HawksRed Hawks Red Hawks335
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines101012
Spartans 1Spartans 1 Spartans 1446
Spartans 2Spartans 2 Spartans 2557
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats668
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish11111
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes779
BoilermakersBoilermakers Boilermakers8810
University of ToledoUniversity of Toledo Rockets12123

Division B

Team1B2B3B
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons101012
Hillsdale CollegeHillsdale College Chargers335
Red HawksRed Hawks Red Hawks446
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines11111
Spartans 1Spartans 1 Spartans 1557
Spartans 2Spartans 2 Spartans 2668
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats779
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish12123
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes8810
BoilermakersBoilermakers Boilermakers9911
University of ToledoUniversity of Toledo Rockets114

Conditions — 10/14/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 79%  ·  Pressure 1019.4 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.9 kn
avg  ·  max 9.1 kn
Gusts to 19.4 kn
From SE (124°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover94% Sunshine4.0 hrs Humidity79% Pressure1019.4 hPa Rain0.07 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 10 kn · W 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Michigan: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.11)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.17 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.28
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.82 ± 0.36)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Michigan by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 12 labelled days at Michigan, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →