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1st Year Ice Breaker

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 12 6 18
2 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1 13 21 34
3 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2 24 24 48
4 Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 38 25 63
5 Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 15 58 73
6 Hillsdale College Hillsdale College Chargers 53 24 77
7 Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 49 39 88
8 Marquette University Marquette University Baby Eagles 52 39 91
9 Baldwin-Wallace Baldwin-Wallace Baldwin-Wallace 50 55 105
10 Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 50 61 111
11 Rockets Rockets Rockets 46 68 114
12 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 66 49 115
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 3 1 4 1 2 1 12 Harrison George '22 [1-6]
Kristen Picard '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Azzam Alzahrani '22 [3-4]
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1 2 3 1 3 1 3 13 Thomas Szymanski '22 [1-6]
Kelsey Kennedy '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Collin Kemper '22 [3-4]
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 1 2 2 2 4 4 15 Mehmet Karatoprak '22 [1-6]
Macy Baxter '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Taylor Mcnamee '22 [3-4]
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2 4 4 7 4 3 2 24 John Di Lella '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Megan O'Gorman '22 [3-4]
Marcelo Bernath Piccolotto '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Daniel Timofeev '22 [3-4]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 6 7 5 5 10 5 38 Thomas Libcke '22 [1-6]
Corinne Nedeau '22 [1-2]
Mary Telly '18 [3-4]
Brianna Corrion '22 [5-6]
Rockets Rockets Rockets 12 10 3 8 6 7 46
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 8 5 10 12 8 6 49 Chase Ireland '22 [1-2]
Steven Neveadomi '21 [3-6]
Jose Esquivel '21 [1-2]
Madeline Osborne '21 [3-6]
Baldwin-Wallace Baldwin-Wallace Baldwin-Wallace 9 8 6 9 7 11 50
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 10 6 9 10 5 10 50 Cassidy Chalut '21
Casey Mcvoy '20
Marquette University Marquette University Baby Eagles 5 9 11 6 12 9 52 Karl Wagerson '22 [1-6]
Jess Lyon '22 [1-3]
Lauren Nelson '22 [4-6]
Hillsdale College Hillsdale College Chargers 7 12 8 7 11 8 53 Lauren Hearne '22
Maggie Ryland '21
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 11 11 12 11 9 12 66 Ainesh Shintre '22 [1-6]
Allison Engkvist '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Theodore Zangoulas '21 [3-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 Sherman Thompson '22 [1-6]
Julia Sommerfeld '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Reanna Orzechowski '22 [3-4]
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1 5 5 3 2 2 4 21 Nicholas Peluchiwski '22
Nicholas Marshall '22
Hillsdale College Hillsdale College Chargers 2 4 2 5 3 8 24 Francis Lucchetti '22
Kaitlyn Rowland '21
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2 3 2 5 4 4 6 24 Alana Lanser '22
Naya Tadavarthy '22
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 7 3 4 3 5 3 25 Eva Rossell '23 [1-6]
Brenna Hover '22 [1-2]
Matthew Higgins '22 [3-4]
Katelyn Evans '22 [5-6]
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 4 11 9 7 6 2 39 Martin Moore '22 [1-2]
Natalie Dugan '22 [3-4]
Avery Lawrence '22 [5-6]
Avery Lawrence '22 [1-2]
Becca Fuss '20 [3-6]
Marquette University Marquette University Baby Eagles 6 7 7 6 8 5 39 Etain Mckinney '22
John Condit '22
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 8 6 10 11 7 7 49 Braden Delaney '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Katerina Siavelis '22 [3-4]
Isaac Bigsby '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Brendan Doyle '22 [3-4]
Baldwin-Wallace Baldwin-Wallace Baldwin-Wallace 10 10 6 8 12 9 55
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 9 8 8 12 11 10 58 Courtney Hamilton '22
Jack Shafer '22
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 11 9 11 10 9 11 61 Julio Zuarth Gonzalez '19
Justin Soules '23
Rockets Rockets Rockets DNS 12 12 9 10 12 68
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Baldwin-WallaceBaldwin-Wallace Baldwin-Wallace113355
Hillsdale CollegeHillsdale College Chargers224466
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Baby Eagles335577
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines 177991111
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines 28810101212
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans446688
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 199111111
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 21010121222
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes557799
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers66881010
RocketsRockets Rockets11111133
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos12122244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Baldwin-WallaceBaldwin-Wallace Baldwin-Wallace224466
Hillsdale CollegeHillsdale College Chargers335577
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Baby Eagles446688
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines 18810101212
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines 299111111
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans557799
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 11010121222
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 211111133
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes66881010
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers77991111
RocketsRockets Rockets12122244
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos113355
School / Team SkipperCrew
Hillsdale College Hillsdale College Lauren Hearne '22 Maggie Ryland '21
Chargers Francis Lucchetti '22 Kaitlyn Rowland '21
Marquette University Marquette University Karl Wagerson '22 [1-6] Jess Lyon '22 [1-3]
Lauren Nelson '22 [4-6]
Baby Eagles Etain Mckinney '22 John Condit '22
Michigan State University Michigan State University Thomas Libcke '22 [1-6] Corinne Nedeau '22 [1-2]
Mary Telly '18 [3-4]
Brianna Corrion '22 [5-6]
Spartans Eva Rossell '23 [1-6] Brenna Hover '22 [1-2]
Matthew Higgins '22 [3-4]
Katelyn Evans '22 [5-6]
Ohio State University Ohio State University Chase Ireland '22 [1-2]
Steven Neveadomi '21 [3-6]		 Jose Esquivel '21 [1-2]
Madeline Osborne '21 [3-6]
Buckeyes Martin Moore '22 [1-2]
Natalie Dugan '22 [3-4]
Avery Lawrence '22 [5-6]		 Avery Lawrence '22 [1-2]
Becca Fuss '20 [3-6]
Purdue University Purdue University Mehmet Karatoprak '22 [1-6] Macy Baxter '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Taylor Mcnamee '22 [3-4]
Boilermakers Courtney Hamilton '22 Jack Shafer '22
University of Michigan University of Michigan Harrison George '22 [1-6] Kristen Picard '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Azzam Alzahrani '22 [3-4]
Wolverines 1 Sherman Thompson '22 [1-6] Julia Sommerfeld '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Reanna Orzechowski '22 [3-4]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Ainesh Shintre '22 [1-6] Allison Engkvist '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Theodore Zangoulas '21 [3-4]
Wolverines 2 Braden Delaney '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Katerina Siavelis '22 [3-4]		 Isaac Bigsby '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Brendan Doyle '22 [3-4]
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Thomas Szymanski '22 [1-6] Kelsey Kennedy '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Collin Kemper '22 [3-4]
Fighting Irish 1 Nicholas Peluchiwski '22 Nicholas Marshall '22
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame John Di Lella '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Megan O'Gorman '22 [3-4]		 Marcelo Bernath Piccolotto '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Daniel Timofeev '22 [3-4]
Fighting Irish 2 Alana Lanser '22 Naya Tadavarthy '22
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Cassidy Chalut '21 Casey Mcvoy '20
Broncos Julio Zuarth Gonzalez '19 Justin Soules '23

Conditions — 03/23/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1027.4 hPa

Temperature

40°F
↑ 48°F   ↓ 23°F
Feels like 35°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.9 kn
avg  ·  max 4.8 kn
Gusts to 12.2 kn
From WNW (293°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1027.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 6 kn* · W 5 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Notre Dame: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.25 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Notre Dame by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Notre Dame, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →