LP / ICSA Men's Singlehanded Nationals

HostSouthern Cal
Date11/02/2012
TypeNational Championship Finals
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	College of Charleston	Juan Maegli '13	37
2	Georgetown University	Chris Barnard '13	61
3	Stanford University	Kieran Chung '15	107
4	Yale University	Cam Cullman '13	111
5	Brown University	Colin Smith '13	122
6	Stanford University	Oliver Toole '14	125
7	Georgetown University	Nevin Snow '16	144
8	Fordham University	Olin Paine '16	144
9	University of South Florida	Christopher Stocke '15	176
10	Rice University	Carson Crain '18	184
11	University of Florida	William Heausler '13	202
12	Brown University	Lucas Adams '15	203
13	University of Vermont	Michael Zonnenberg '15	204
14	St. Mary's College of Maryland	John Wallace '14	211
15	University of Wisconsin	Andrew Fox '13	213
16	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Trey Hartman '15	250
17	University of Oregon	Philip Gordon '12	266
18	University of Minnesota	Chris Loew-Blosser '14	318

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	R17	R18	TOT
College of Charleston	Juan Maegli '13	7	3	1	1	3	4	1	3	1	1	2	3	1	2	1	1	1	1	37
Georgetown University	Chris Barnard '13	1	1	5	4	1	5	2	1	6	2	1	2	5	1	4	11	5	4	61
Stanford University	Kieran Chung '15	12	14	2	3	2	7	4	10	4	3	8	4	4	3	3	2	9	13	107
Yale University	Cam Cullman '13	2	13	4	2	6	10	9	4	7	5	3	1	2	8	13	4	2	16	111
Brown University	Colin Smith '13	3	2	9	7	15	2	15	6	5	6	7	5	3	10	6	9	4	8	122
Stanford University	Oliver Toole '14	6	5	3	5	9	1	3	16	3	4	10	17	10	11	8	5	7	2	125
Georgetown University	Nevin Snow '16	4	10	8	15	11	3	6	9	8	10	6	7	12	5	2	15	3	10	144
Fordham University	Olin Paine '16	9	7	6	6	4	6	5	13	9	7	5	9	7	12	17	3	12	7	144
University of South Florida	Christopher Stocke '15	8	8	14	8	5	13	7	14	2	8	11	15	8	16	15	13	6	5	176
Rice University	Carson Crain '18	10	6	7	9	8	11	16	7	10	13	12	11	9	13	11	7	15	9	184
University of Florida	William Heausler '13	15	15	10	10	7	15	11	8	17	18	13	8	6	9	7	16	11	6	202
Brown University	Lucas Adams '15	11	12	13	11	10	8	8	12	16	9	17	13	16	14	12	10	8	3	203
University of Vermont	Michael Zonnenberg '15	5	11	16	13	16	9	13	2	13	12	16	14	15	4	5	12	10	18	204
St. Mary's College of Maryland	John Wallace '14	13	16	15	12	14	16	10	11	15	11	9	6	14	6	10	6	16	11	211
University of Wisconsin	Andrew Fox '13	17	17	11	16	17	14	14	5	14	14	4	10	11	7	9	8	13	12	213
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Trey Hartman '15	16	9	17	17	12	12	12	15	12	15	14	12	13	15	14	14	17	14	250
University of Oregon	Philip Gordon '12	14	4	12	14	13	17	18	17	11	17	15	16	18	18	16	17	14	15	266
University of Minnesota	Chris Loew-Blosser '14	18	18	18	18	18	18	17	18	18	16	18	18	17	17	18	18	18	17	318

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 18 boats · 18 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Juan Maegli '13	College of Charleston	18/18	3.70	6.01	+2.32	93rd → 99th	19.8	<1%	2.1 / 6.7
2	Chris Barnard '13	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	18/18	3.54	4.85	+1.31	92nd → 99th	8.4	1%	3.4 / 7.0
3	Kieran Chung '15	Stanford University Red	18/18	3.01	3.66	+0.65	83rd → 93rd	2.5	10%	5.9 / 8.4
4	Cam Cullman '13	Yale University	18/18	2.91	3.49	+0.58	79th → 90th	2.0	10%	6.2 / 8.7
5	Colin Smith '13	Brown University Bears 1	18/18	3.11	3.36	+0.26	84th → 89th	0.4	26%	6.8 / 8.1
6	Oliver Toole '14	Stanford University Cardinal	18/18	3.26	3.13	−0.12	86th → 84th	0.1	37%	6.9 / 7.7
7	Nevin Snow '16	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	18/18	3.21	3.04	−0.17	85th → 83rd	0.2	57%	8.0 / 7.8
7	Olin Paine '16	Fordham University	18/18	2.81	3.04	+0.24	76th → 83rd	0.4	33%	8.0 / 8.9
9	Christopher Stocke '15	University of South Florida	18/18	2.78	2.58	−0.20	75th → 67th	0.3	66%	9.8 / 9.0
10	Carson Crain '18	Rice University	18/18	1.24^u	2.67	+1.43	29th → 71st	11.0	12%	10.2 / 12.8
11	William Heausler '13	University of Florida	18/18	2.45	2.06	−0.39	62nd → 53rd	1.1	70%	11.2 / 9.9
12	Lucas Adams '15	Brown University Bears 2	18/18	2.63	2.27	−0.36	69th → 59th	1.0	84%	11.3 / 9.4
13	Michael Zonnenberg '15	University of Vermont	18/18	2.70	2.04	−0.66	72nd → 53rd	3.3	88%	11.3 / 9.1
14	John Wallace '14	St. Mary's College of Maryland	18/18	2.71	2.13	−0.58	72nd → 56th	2.7	90%	11.7 / 9.2
15	Andrew Fox '13	University of Wisconsin	18/18	2.15	1.97	−0.18	56th → 51st	0.2	69%	11.8 / 10.6
16	Trey Hartman '15	Texas A&M University at Galveston	18/18	1.57	1.72	+0.15	39th → 43rd	0.2	77%	13.9 / 12.1
17	Philip Gordon '12	University of Oregon	18/18	1.91	1.01	−0.90	48th → 23rd	5.3	94%	14.8 / 11.2
18	Chris Loew-Blosser '14	University of Minnesota	18/18	0.48	-0.73	−1.21	14th → 1st	4.4	>99%	17.7 / 14.5

Conditions — 11/02/2012 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 68% · Pressure 1014.6 hPa

Temperature

65°F

↑ 70°F ↓ 55°F

Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.1 kn

avg · max 5.8 kn

Gusts to 12.8 kn

From SSW (208°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover12% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1014.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Southern Cal — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Southern Cal in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Southern Cal by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Southern Cal, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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