ICSA Men's Singlehandeds

HostCollege Sailing
Date11/04/2011
TypeNational Championship Finals
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Yale University	Cam Cullman '13	57
2	University of South Florida	Christopher Stocke '15	84
3	College of Charleston	Zeke Horowitz '12	84
4	Stanford University	Mateo Vargas '14	94
5	Brown University	Colin Smith '13	120
6	Georgetown University	Chris Barnard '13	128
7	University of Miami	David Hernandez '12	130
8	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Samuel Blouin '12	132
9	Cornell University	Philip Alley '12	134
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	John Wallace '14	143
11	Stanford University	Kieran Chung '15	152
12	University of Wisconsin	Andrew Fox '13	159
13	University of Wisconsin	Joseph Kutschenreuter '12	161
14	Brown University	Lucas Adams '15	166
15	University of Vermont	Michael Zonnenberg '15	181
16	University of Oregon	Elliot Drake '12	195
17	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Trey Hartman '15	211
18	University of Minnesota	Harrison Burton '14	238

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	TOT
Yale University	Cam Cullman '13	1	6	5	3	1	2	10	1	4	3	1	4	7	8	1	57
University of South Florida	Christopher Stocke '15	2	1	10	2	5	17	2	11	10	4	8	2	1	7	2	84
College of Charleston	Zeke Horowitz '12	8	9	7	5	2	1	7	5	1	10	5	5	14	2	3	84
Stanford University	Mateo Vargas '14	6	5	14	15	7	6	3	6	6	2	2	3	10	4	5	94
Brown University	Colin Smith '13	10	4	2	6	9	5	9	8	13	7	10	7	13	6	11	120
Georgetown University	Chris Barnard '13	4	12	8	11	3	4	6	3	OCS	5	12	9	2	11	DNF	128
University of Miami	David Hernandez '12	15	3	16	9	4	13	5	14	5	1	7	6	4	15	13	130
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Samuel Blouin '12	12	13	1	13	12	3	1	2	15	8	13	17	9	3	10	132
Cornell University	Philip Alley '12	14	2	4	14	6	14	8	12	3	12	6	11	5	14	9	134
St. Mary's College of Maryland	John Wallace '14	17	15	12	16	10	12	17	4	8	11	4	1	8	1	7	143
Stanford University	Kieran Chung '15	18	7	9	17	16	15	4	9	11	9	3	14	3	5	12	152
University of Wisconsin	Andrew Fox '13	16	14	15	4	14	8	15	7	9	14	14	8	6	9	6	159
University of Wisconsin	Joseph Kutschenreuter '12	7	17	3	1	15	7	12	17	12	13	9	12	15	17	4	161
Brown University	Lucas Adams '15	5	18	6	12	8	10	18	10	2	18	17	10	11	13	8	166
University of Vermont	Michael Zonnenberg '15	3	8	11	7	17	9	16	13	14	15	15	13	16	10	14	181
University of Oregon	Elliot Drake '12	11	11	13	18	13	16	14	16	7	6	11	15	17	12	15	195
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Trey Hartman '15	9	10	17	10	11	18	13	15	16	16	16	16	12	16	16	211
University of Minnesota	Harrison Burton '14	13	16	18	8	18	11	11	18	17	17	18	18	18	18	DNF	238

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 18 boats · 15 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Cam Cullman '13	Yale University	15/15	2.86	4.56	+1.70	78th → 99th	11.4	1%	3.8 / 8.6
2	Christopher Stocke '15	University of South Florida	15/15	2.55	3.53	+0.98	67th → 92nd	4.2	3%	5.6 / 9.4
2	Zeke Horowitz '12	College of Charleston	15/15	3.06	3.78	+0.72	83rd → 94th	2.5	17%	5.6 / 8.1
4	Mateo Vargas '14	Stanford University Cardinal 2	15/15	2.89	3.50	+0.61	78th → 90th	1.9	20%	6.3 / 8.5
5	Colin Smith '13	Brown University Bears 2	15/15	2.90	3.13	+0.23	78th → 84th	0.3	43%	8.0 / 8.5
6	Chris Barnard '13	Georgetown University	15/15	3.19	3.39	+0.20	85th → 89th	0.2	67%	8.5 / 7.8
7	David Hernandez '12	University of Miami	15/15	2.65	2.67	+0.02	70th → 71st	0.0	41%	8.7 / 9.2
8	Samuel Blouin '12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	15/15	3.03	2.59	−0.44	83rd → 68th	1.2	68%	8.8 / 8.0
9	Philip Alley '12	Cornell University	15/15	2.28	2.85	+0.57	59th → 78th	1.7	29%	8.9 / 10.2
10	John Wallace '14	St. Mary's College of Maryland	15/15	2.56	2.49	−0.08	67th → 63rd	0.0	53%	9.5 / 9.4
11	Kieran Chung '15	Stanford University Cardinal 1	15/15	2.58	2.27	−0.31	67th → 59th	0.5	64%	10.1 / 9.4
12	Andrew Fox '13	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	15/15	2.27	2.47	+0.20	59th → 62nd	0.2	54%	10.6 / 10.3
13	Joseph Kutschenreuter '12	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	15/15	2.86	2.10	−0.76	78th → 55th	3.8	80%	10.7 / 8.5
14	Lucas Adams '15	Brown University Bears 1	15/15	2.15	1.85	−0.31	56th → 46th	0.5	59%	11.1 / 10.6
15	Michael Zonnenberg '15	University of Vermont	15/15	2.48	2.02	−0.46	62nd → 53rd	1.4	88%	12.1 / 9.6
16	Elliot Drake '12	University of Oregon	15/15	1.92	1.82	−0.09	48th → 45th	0.0	76%	13.0 / 11.2
17	Trey Hartman '15	Texas A&M University at Galveston	15/15	1.60	1.48	−0.12	40th → 37th	0.1	80%	14.1 / 11.9
18	Harrison Burton '14	University of Minnesota	15/15	1.64	0.21	−1.43	41st → 9th	7.4	96%	15.9 / 11.8

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

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ICSA Men's Singlehandeds

Division A 18 boats · 15 races

From the notes