Bowdoin College '14
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.01 (fleet 2.78) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 35–27 (56%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 5 | 35–27 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (62 matches) the record is 35–27 against 33.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.7). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-05 | Fowle New England Team Race Champs | skipper | 2.99 | -0.01 | 0–8 | 2.4 | ≤−3.00 | 4.4 | >99% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 2.97 | 2.12 | 3–11 | 5.3 | −0.85 | 1.3 | 95% |
| 2014-03-22 | Staake Trophy | skipper | 2.92 | 3.76 | 20–3 | 17.4 | +0.83 | 1.5 | 14% |
| 2014-03-15 | Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.61 | 3.42 | 7–4 | 5.3 | +0.80 | 1.0 | 19% |
| 2014-03-01 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 3.03 | 5.02 | 5–1 | 3.0 | +1.99 | 2.7 | 7% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.8 | 2.67 |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| Staake Trophy | Skipper | TR | 23 | 87% | — |
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 32% | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Fowle New England Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 11 | 9% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 18 | 6.9 | 3.06 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.6 | 3.14 |
| 31st Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.2 | 2.20 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 13.9 | 2.29 |
| 39th Harry H. Anderson Jr Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.8 | 2.68 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.1 | 3.32 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 2 | 12.5 | 1.91 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| RI State Champs, Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.5 | 1.99 |
| Oberg | Skipper | B | 15 | 10.5 | 1.90 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.6 | 2.52 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.4 | 2.06 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.4 | 3.31 |
| Harry Anderson Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.2 | 2.16 |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 11.1 | 2.35 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.8 | 3.08 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 11 | 4.5 | 3.19 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.6 | 2.76 |
| New England Dinghy Championship | Skipper | B | 18 | 11.3 | 2.46 |
| BU Bridge Invitational, Central Series T | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.5 | 1.90 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Professor Steadman Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 11.2 | 2.71 |
| 138th Rudolph Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.8 | 2.83 |
| RI State Champs @ SRU | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.2 | 2.33 |
| 70th Prof Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 14.8 | 1.48 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.3 | 3.28 |
| Nicholas J. Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.1 | 3.21 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.5 | 2.45 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 15.8 | 2.08 |
| Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.2 | 2.85 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Coed Dinghy Championship | Crew | A | 8 | 10.9 | — |
| 8th George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.4 | 1.75 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 11.8 | 1.67 |
| RI State Champs @ SRU | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.5 | 1.72 |
| Nicholas J. Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.6 | 1.71 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.1 | 2.55 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 14 | 14.6 | 1.76 |
| Boston Harbor Invitational | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.8 | 2.52 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.5 | 1.75 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
