PCCSC Men's Single-handeds

HostSouthern Cal
Date09/25/2010
TypeConference Championship
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Stanford University	Oliver Toole '14	36
2	California Maritime Academy	Sean Kelly '12	53
3	Stanford University	Mateo Vargas '14	82
4	Stanford University	Kevin Laube '14	92
5	University of California at Los Angeles	Judge Ryan '14	97
6	University of California at Santa Barbara	Nicholas Kaschak '12	100
7	University of California at Santa Barbara	Cameron Walsh '13	100
8	University of Southern California	Cameron Hutcheson '14	109
9	University of Hawaii	Zachary Hester '10	111
10	University of Hawaii	Craig Schifferns '12	113
11	University of Southern California	Stephen Lue '12	127
12	University of Hawaii	William Petersen '11	150
13	University of Southern California	Erik Samuels '13	168
14	California Maritime Academy	Matthew Van Rensselaer '13	173
15	University of Hawaii	Matt Wenner '12	178
16	University of California at Davis	Ryan Lee '12	225
17	University of California at Davis	Jonathan Wilkerson '11	235

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT
Stanford University	Oliver Toole '14	2	2	1	2	8	9	1	1	3	1	1	1	3	1	36
California Maritime Academy	Sean Kelly '12	1	4	6	1	12	5	4	2	7	3	2	3	1	2	53
Stanford University	Mateo Vargas '14	7	5	3	5	9	7	9	11	1	8	5	2	4	6	82
Stanford University	Kevin Laube '14	8	1	8	8	6	10	6	4	4	5	9	9	6	8	92
University of California at Los Angeles	Judge Ryan '14	10	11	5	3	3	4	14	6	5	4	4	10	8	10	97
University of California at Santa Barbara	Nicholas Kaschak '12	4	3	2	7	10	6	3	8	8	7	7	8	RAF	9	100
University of California at Santa Barbara	Cameron Walsh '13	12	9	4	4	5	14	2	3	2	11	11	4	12	7	100
University of Southern California	Cameron Hutcheson '14	5	6	9	12	13	11	5	10	12	10	3	5	5	3	109
University of Hawaii	Zachary Hester '10	6	7	11	6	1	2	8	15	6	2	8	14	13	12	111
University of Hawaii	Craig Schifferns '12	3	8	7	10	7	12	12	13	10	6	6	12	2	5	113
University of Southern California	Stephen Lue '12	11	10	12	13	4	3	15	7	11	9	13	6	9	4	127
University of Hawaii	William Petersen '11	9	15	13	9	2	15	10	5	13	16	12	11	7	13	150
University of Southern California	Erik Samuels '13	15	12	15	15	11	1	13	14	9	12	10	7	DNF	16	168
California Maritime Academy	Matthew Van Rensselaer '13	14	14	14	11	14	8	7	12	14	13	14	13	11	14	173
University of Hawaii	Matt Wenner '12	13	13	10	14	15	13	11	9	15	14	15	15	10	11	178
University of California at Davis	Ryan Lee '12	16	16	17	16	16	17	17	16	DNF	15	16	16	14	15	225
University of California at Davis	Jonathan Wilkerson '11	17	17	16	17	17	16	16	17	16	17	17	17	DNF	17	235

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 17 boats · 14 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Oliver Toole '14	Stanford University Cardinal 3	14/14	2.46	4.50	+2.04	62nd → 99th	13.4	<1%	2.6 / 7.2
2	Sean Kelly '12	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1	14/14	2.28	3.67	+1.39	59th → 93rd	7.3	4%	3.8 / 7.7
3	Mateo Vargas '14	Stanford University Cardinal 2	14/14	2.84	2.85	+0.01	77th → 78th	0.0	45%	5.9 / 6.4
4	Kevin Laube '14	Stanford University Cardinal 1	14/14	2.29	2.71	+0.42	59th → 72nd	0.9	34%	6.6 / 7.7
5	Judge Ryan '14	University of California at Los Angeles	14/14	2.49	2.40	−0.09	63rd → 61st	0.0	50%	6.9 / 7.1
6	Cameron Walsh '13	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	14/14	1.89	2.25	+0.36	48th → 59th	0.6	28%	7.1 / 8.6
6	Nicholas Kaschak '12	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	14/14	1.81	2.84	+1.02	44th → 77th	4.3	26%	7.1 / 8.8
8	Cameron Hutcheson '14	University of Southern California Trojans 2	14/14	1.79	2.24	+0.44	44th → 58th	1.0	36%	7.8 / 8.8
9	Zachary Hester '10	University of Hawaii Rainbows 1	14/14	1.86	1.85	−0.01	47th → 46th	0.0	40%	7.9 / 8.6
10	Craig Schifferns '12	University of Hawaii Rainbows 4	14/14	1.62	2.21	+0.59	40th → 58th	1.7	32%	8.1 / 9.3
11	Stephen Lue '12	University of Southern California Trojans 1	14/14	1.85	1.79	−0.06	46th → 44th	0.0	57%	9.1 / 8.7
12	William Petersen '11	University of Hawaii Rainbows 2	14/14	1.93	1.18	−0.75	49th → 28th	3.3	83%	10.7 / 8.5
13	Erik Samuels '13	University of Southern California Trojans 3	14/14	1.08	1.02	−0.05	25th → 23rd	0.0	73%	12.0 / 10.6
14	Matthew Van Rensselaer '13	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2	14/14	1.67	1.02	−0.65	41st → 23rd	2.7	91%	12.4 / 9.2
15	Matt Wenner '12	University of Hawaii Rainbows 3	14/14	1.30	0.90	−0.40	30th → 21st	0.9	87%	12.7 / 10.1
16	Ryan Lee '12	University of California at Davis UC Davis 1	14/14	0.24	-0.74	−0.98	10th → 1st	3.9	98%	16.1 / 12.5
17	Jonathan Wilkerson '11	University of California at Davis UC Davis 2	14/14	-0.08	-2.22	−2.14	5th → 1st	10.0	>99%	16.8 / 13.1

Conditions — 09/25/2010 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 43% · Pressure 1011.5 hPa

Temperature

81°F

↑ 88°F ↓ 65°F

Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.6 kn

avg · max 9.5 kn

Gusts to 17.7 kn

From WSW (246°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity43% Pressure1011.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Southern Cal — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Southern Cal in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Southern Cal by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Southern Cal, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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