| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Stanford University | Oliver Toole '14 | 31 |
| 2 |  |
University of California at Santa Barbara | Stephen Long '17 | 32 |
| 3 | |
Stanford University | Mateo Vargas '14 | 33 |
| 4 | |
Stanford University | Kieran Chung '15 | 38 |
| 5 | |
University of California at Santa Barbara | Keenan Chung '18 | 75 |
| 6 |  |
University of California at Berkeley | Jacob Hiew '15 | 84 |
| 7 |  |
University of Hawaii | Mackenzie Cook '17 | 91 |
| 8 |  |
University of Southern California | Cameron Hutcheson '14 | 94 |
| 9 |  |
University of California at Irvine | Nicholas Weis '15 | 99 |
| 10 | |
University of Hawaii | Giacomo Paoletti '15 | 122 |
| 11 |  |
University of California at San Diego | John Olson '14 | 134 |
| 12 |  |
University of California at Los Angeles | Robert Loughnan '15 | 141 |
| 13 | |
University of Southern California | Brandon Yuen '14 | 143 |
| 14 | |
University of California at San Diego | Tyler Wooldridge '14 | 149 |
| 15 | |
University of California at San Diego | Jiachao Yang '15 | 178 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oliver Toole '14 | Stanford University Cardinal | 12/12 | 3.11 | 4.32 | +1.22 | 84th → 98th | 4.5 | 3% | 2.6 / 4.8 |
| 2 | Stephen Long '17 | University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 | 12/12 | 2.90 | 4.27 | +1.38 | 78th → 98th | 5.7 | 5% | 2.7 / 5.3 |
| 3 | Mateo Vargas '14 | Stanford University White | 12/12 | 3.10 | 4.15 | +1.05 | 84th → 97th | 3.4 | 8% | 2.8 / 4.9 |
| 4 | Kieran Chung '15 | Stanford University Red | 12/12 | 3.31 | 3.73 | +0.42 | 88th → 93rd | 0.6 | 17% | 3.2 / 4.5 |
| 5 | Keenan Chung '18 | University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 | 12/12 | 1.74 | 2.25 | +0.50 | 43rd → 59th | 1.0 | 28% | 6.2 / 7.5 |
| 6 | Jacob Hiew '15 | University of California at Berkeley | 12/12 | 1.06 | 1.91 | +0.85 | 24th → 48th | 2.8 | 18% | 7.0 / 8.9 |
| 7 | Mackenzie Cook '17 | University of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine | 12/12 | 1.16 | 1.78 | +0.62 | 27th → 44th | 1.6 | 29% | 7.6 / 8.7 |
| 8 | Cameron Hutcheson '14 | University of Southern California Trojans 1 | 12/12 | 2.18 | 1.53 | −0.65 | 57th → 38th | 2.1 | 73% | 7.8 / 6.6 |
| 9 | Nicholas Weis '15 | University of California at Irvine | 12/12 | 0.98 | 1.47 | +0.49 | 22nd → 37th | 1.0 | 34% | 8.2 / 9.1 |
| 10 | Giacomo Paoletti '15 | University of Hawaii Rainbows | 12/12 | 1.61 | 0.69 | −0.92 | 40th → 17th | 4.3 | 88% | 10.2 / 7.8 |
| 11 | John Olson '14 | University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 | 12/12 | 1.33 | 0.30 | −1.03 | 31st → 11th | 5.5 | 93% | 11.2 / 8.3 |
| 12 | Robert Loughnan '15 | University of California at Los Angeles | 12/12 | -0.58 | 0.31 | +0.88 | 2nd → 11th | 2.8 | 45% | 11.8 / 11.8 |
| 13 | Brandon Yuen '14 | University of Southern California Trojans 2 | 12/12 | 0.17 | 0.03 | −0.14 | 9th → 6th | 0.1 | 74% | 11.9 / 10.6 |
| 14 | Tyler Wooldridge '14 | University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 | 12/12 | 1.03 | -0.52 | −1.56 | 24th → 2nd | 8.3 | 97% | 12.4 / 8.9 |
| 15 | Jiachao Yang '15 | University of California at San Diego Tritons 3 | 12/12 | -0.85 | -2.61 | −1.75 | 1st → 1st | 4.3 | >99% | 14.8 / 12.3 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
