Fall Dinghy PCC

HostUC Santa Barbara
Date11/13/2010
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ/Laser
Scoring3 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	C	TOT
1	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	36	45	51	132
2	Stanford University	Cardinal	86	46	32	164
3	University of Hawaii	Rainbows	90	50	46	186
4	University of Oregon	Ducks	94	131	33	258
5	University of Southern California	Trojans	116	79	70	265
6	University of California at Irvine	Anteaters	124	35	116	275
7	University of California at Berkeley	Berkeley	150	74	100	324
8	University of California at San Diego	UC San Diego	71	139	142	352
9	University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	104	120	132	356
10	Western Washington University	Vikings	146	124	96	366
11	California State University Channel Islands	Channel Islands	58	179	200	437
12	University of California at Santa Cruz	UC Santa Cruz	144	167	148	459
13	Northwestern University	Wildcats	164	171	157	492
14	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang	150	106	273	529
15	Chapman University	Panthers	203	220 GDQ	121	544 GDQ
16	California State University Monterey Bay	Otters	112	164	273	549
17	University of California at Davis	UC Davis	210 MRP	232 MRP	210 MRP	652 MRP
18	University of Washington	Huskies	224 MRP	271 MRP	179 MRP	674 MRP
19	Arizona State University	Arizona	230	203	273	706
20	Santa Clara University	Santa Clara	273	273	273	819

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	TOT	Sailors
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	7	2	1	3	1	3	4	4	1	2	6	1	1	36	Ryan Sullivan '12 Keely Scates '12
California State University Channel Islands	Channel Islands	1	1	8	6	5	1	2	3	4	1	5	19	2	58	Gregory Dair '15 [1-13] Lisa Marchand '12 [1-3] Erica Pandolfi '13 [4-7] Erin Ross '11 [8-13]
University of California at San Diego	UC San Diego	2	14	5	11	9	2	6	1	2	5	1	8	5	71	Eric Alamillo '13 Amanda Suarez '13
Stanford University	Cardinal	3	8	2	4	3	13	5	5	6	14	8	12	3	86	Kevin Laube '14 [1-6, 9-11] Nick Dugdale '12 [7-8, 12-13] Carolyn Ortel '14 [1-6] Anna Mcconnell '14 [7-13]
University of Hawaii	Rainbows	10	3	4	1	8	4	10	2	8	3	7	13	17	90	Zachary Hester '10 Hanne Nagatani '13
University of Oregon	Ducks	6	4	18	7	6	9	1	13	3	13	2	3	9	94	Philip Gordon '12 Cara Kuhlman '11
University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	4	7	10	2	19	6	7	15	7	11	3	6	7	104	Oscar Jasklowski '11 Louise Lehman '14
California State University Monterey Bay	Otters	9	11	16	5	4	8	11	7	5	8	13	5	10	112	Bradley Schoch '11 Natalie Cardoso '13
University of Southern California	Trojans	11	6	14	9	10	7	9	9	10	7	9	9	6	116	Stephen Lue '12 [1-5, 12-13] Kelsey Rupp '12 [6-11] Alexander Kraebel '11 [1-5, 12-13]
University of California at Irvine	Anteaters	5	9	3	8	13	5	8	6	13	6	15	17	16	124	Jack Porter '11 Christopher Huang '12
University of California at Santa Cruz	UC Santa Cruz	12	5	19	16	7	10	12	18	11	9	10	11	4	144	Andrew Cowley '12 Mike Mccarthy '14
Western Washington University	Vikings	17	15	9	10	17	14	17	12	9	4	4	7	11	146	Bryan Rust '11 Charles Hartman '13
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang	13	12	7	13	12	12	3	11	17	15	17	10	8	150	Thomas Maher '12 Francesca Delle Cese '12
University of California at Berkeley	Berkeley	16	13	11	15	2	11	13	14	16	10	14	2	13	150	Aubrey Toole '12 Sarah Adams '13
Northwestern University	Wildcats	15	10	13	14	14	19	15	10	12	12	12	4	14	164	Geoff Pedrick '12 Steve Blackman '11
Chapman University	Panthers	DNS	18	12	12	18	18	14	19	14	16	11	15	15	203	Trevor Moseley '13 [1-13] Taylor Forster '13 [1-8] Catherine Bevens '14 [9-13]
University of California at Davis	UC Davis	14	16	6	18	11	16	18	17	15	17	16	14	12	210 MRP	Ryan Lee '12 Elizabeth Thome '11
University of Washington	Huskies	8	17	17	17	15	15	16	8	19	18	19	16	19	224 MRP
Arizona State University	Arizona	18	19	15	19	16	17	19	16	18	19	18	18	18	230	Spenser Branch '14 Isaac Anderson '12
Santa Clara University	Santa Clara	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	273	Maxwell Wyman '12

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	TOT	Sailors
University of California at Irvine	Anteaters	4	1	3	5	1	1	4	1	2	3	1	6	3	35	Rex Cameron '12 Blair Johnston '11
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	3	3	1	4	2	5	1	5	4	4	6	1	6	45	Nicholas Kaschak '12 Caitlin Beavers '12
Stanford University	Cardinal	2	2	5	6	4	7	6	2	3	2	3	3	1	46	Mateo Vargas '14 Rebecca King '13
University of Hawaii	Rainbows	1	4	4	1	5	3	3	9	8	1	2	4	5	50	William Peterson '11 Tahnee Allman '12
University of California at Berkeley	Berkeley	6	7	2	8	6	4	14	3	1	5	4	2	12	74	Travis Benton '14 Ashley Borom '11
University of Southern California	Trojans	5	6	8	3	3	13	8	4	5	8	5	9	2	79	Emily Dahl '13 Maggie Nolting '14
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang	8	11	6	2	9	2	2	6	14	6	11	8	DNF	106	Erik Lund '14 Christine Gorney '11
University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	9	5	14	9	14	6	11	8	9	9	9	7	10	120	Andrew Morton '11 Emelia Pelliccio '13
Western Washington University	Vikings	DNF	8	15	7	7	8	10	7	7	7	8	11	8	124	Patrick Taylor '12 Angela Gossom '13
University of Oregon	Ducks	10	10	9	10	11	9	12	10	10	11	10	5	14	131	Andrew Balter '12 Hyojung Na '12
University of California at San Diego	UC San Diego	13	12	16	11	8	12	5	13	6	10	7	13	13	139	Matthew Nguyen '12 [1-11] Tyler Wooldridge '14 [12-13] Vincent Voong '12 [1-3, 9-11] Jennifer Lyons '12 [4-8, 12-13]
California State University Monterey Bay	Otters	7	16	18	14	10	15	7	15	17	12	14	10	9	164	Zachary Haney '11 Mark Hurdle '13
University of California at Santa Cruz	UC Santa Cruz	11	13	10	15	12	10	9	12	13	17	12	18	15	167	Connor Bescos '11 Kimberley Cohan '14
Northwestern University	Wildcats	12	9	17	12	16	11	13	11	12	15	16	16	11	171	Nicholas Campbell '12 Katherine Nickele '12
California State University Channel Islands	Channel Islands	16	14	12	16	13	14	17	14	15	14	15	12	7	179	Andrew Domingos '11 [1-13] Hayley Bracken '13 [1-3] Erica Pandolfi '13 [4-8] Lisa Marchand '12 [9-13]
Arizona State University	Arizona	15	17	11	19	15	18	16	17	11	13	13	17	DNF	203	Steven Cassingham '13 Gerald Byrnes '12
Chapman University	Panthers	DNS	15	7	17	18	16	15	18	18	18	18	15	4	220 GDQ	Alyssa Aoki '12 [1-13] Lauren Mcnally '12 [1-5, 9-13] Alyssa Aoki '12 [6-8]
University of California at Davis	UC Davis	14	18	13	18	19	17	18	16	16	16	17	14	16	232 MRP	Ryan Lee '12 Elizabeth Thome '11
University of Washington	Huskies	DNF	19	19	13	17	19	19	19	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	271 MRP	Molly Utter '14
Santa Clara University	Santa Clara	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	273

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	TOT	Sailors
Stanford University	Cardinal	3	4	1	2	2	1	1	6	6	2	1	2	1	32	Oliver Toole '14
University of Oregon	Ducks	4	1	3	4	1	2	2	5	1	1	2	1	6	33	Elliot Drake '12
University of Hawaii	Rainbows	2	3	2	6	3	3	3	1	3	5	10	3	2	46	Craig Schifferns '12
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	1	5	4	1	5	4	4	2	4	6	5	6	4	51	Cameron Walsh '13
University of Southern California	Trojans	6	2	5	3	4	5	5	13	5	3	4	5	10	70	Cameron Hutcheson '14
Western Washington University	Vikings	5	6	7	7	7	8	10	12	9	9	9	4	3	96	Paul Foley '15
University of California at Berkeley	Berkeley	7	10	8	5	10	6	8	10	8	7	3	7	11	100	Dominique Bertrand '11
University of California at Irvine	Anteaters	12	7	13	12	11	7	14	4	7	8	8	8	5	116	William Larsen '13
Chapman University	Panthers	9	8	9	10	6	15	7	9	13	11	6	11	7	121	Max Moosmann '11
University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	DNS	DNS	6	14	14	12	6	3	2	4	11	9	9	132	Nils Resvik '12
University of California at San Diego	UC San Diego	8	12	11	11	13	9	12	7	14	13	7	13	12	142	John Olson '14
University of California at Santa Cruz	UC Santa Cruz	14	9	15	9	9	14	9	11	11	10	15	14	8	148	Michael Radziejowski '13
Northwestern University	Wildcats	11	14	12	13	15	10	11	8	12	12	13	10	16	157	John Hodges '13
University of Washington	Huskies	10	11	14	8	8	11	13	14	10	14	16	16	14	179 MRP	Jake Antles '13
California State University Channel Islands	Channel Islands	15	15	16	16	16	13	15	DNS	15	16	12	15	15	200	Cameron Demaranville '12
University of California at Davis	UC Davis	13	13	10	15	12	16	DNS	15	DNS	15	14	12	13	210 MRP	Jonathan Wilkerson '11
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	273	Thomas Maher '12 Francesca Delle Cese '12
California State University Monterey Bay	Otters	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	273	Bradley Schoch '11 Natalie Cardoso '13
Arizona State University	Arizona	DNS	DNS	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	273	Spenser Branch '14 Isaac Anderson '12
Santa Clara University	Santa Clara	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	273	Maxwell Wyman '12

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.170+0.17

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A
Arizona State University Arizona	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39
University of California at Berkeley Berkeley	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
California State University Channel Islands Channel Islands	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Chapman University Panthers	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41
University of Hawaii Rainbows	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35
California State University Monterey Bay Otters	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Northwestern University Wildcats	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130
University of Oregon Ducks	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Santa Clara University Santa Clara	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19
University of Southern California Trojans	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37
Stanford University Cardinal	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
University of California at Davis UC Davis	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47
University of California at Irvine Anteaters	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
University of California at San Diego UC San Diego	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
University of California at Santa Cruz UC Santa Cruz	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34
University of Washington Huskies	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Western Washington University Vikings	87	87	87	87	87	87	87	87	87	87	87	87	87

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B	13B
Arizona State University Arizona	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40
University of California at Berkeley Berkeley	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
California State University Channel Islands Channel Islands	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99
Chapman University Panthers	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42
University of Hawaii Rainbows	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36
California State University Monterey Bay Otters	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Northwestern University Wildcats	291	291	291	291	291	291	291	291	291	291	291	291	291
University of Oregon Ducks	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Santa Clara University Santa Clara	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20
University of Southern California Trojans	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38
Stanford University Cardinal	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22
University of California at Davis UC Davis	48	48	48	48	48	48	48	48	48	48	48	48	48
University of California at Irvine Anteaters	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28
University of California at San Diego UC San Diego	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
University of California at Santa Cruz UC Santa Cruz	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33
University of Washington Huskies	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Western Washington University Vikings	88	88	88	88	88	88	88	88	88	88	88	88	88

Division C

Team	1C	2C	3C	4C	5C	6C	7C	8C	9C	10C	11C	12C	13C
Arizona State University Arizona	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39
University of California at Berkeley Berkeley	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
California State University Channel Islands Channel Islands	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Chapman University Panthers	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41
University of Hawaii Rainbows	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36
California State University Monterey Bay Otters	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Northwestern University Wildcats	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130
University of Oregon Ducks	473	473	473	473	473	473	473	473	473	473	473	473	473
Santa Clara University Santa Clara	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19
University of Southern California Trojans	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37
Stanford University Cardinal	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
University of California at Davis UC Davis	471	471	471	471	471	471	471	471	471	471	471	471	471
University of California at Irvine Anteaters	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
University of California at San Diego UC San Diego	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
University of California at Santa Cruz UC Santa Cruz	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28
University of Washington Huskies	76	76	76	76	76	76	76	76	76	76	76	76	76
Western Washington University Vikings	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Arizona State University	Spenser Branch '14	Isaac Anderson '12
Arizona	Steven Cassingham '13	Gerald Byrnes '12
	Spenser Branch '14	Isaac Anderson '12
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Thomas Maher '12	Francesca Delle Cese '12
Mustang	Erik Lund '14	Christine Gorney '11
	Thomas Maher '12	Francesca Delle Cese '12
California State University Channel Islands	Gregory Dair '15 [1-13]	Lisa Marchand '12 [1-3] Erica Pandolfi '13 [4-7] Erin Ross '11 [8-13]
Channel Islands	Andrew Domingos '11 [1-13]	Hayley Bracken '13 [1-3] Erica Pandolfi '13 [4-8] Lisa Marchand '12 [9-13]
	Cameron Demaranville '12
California State University Monterey Bay	Bradley Schoch '11	Natalie Cardoso '13
Otters	Zachary Haney '11	Mark Hurdle '13
	Bradley Schoch '11	Natalie Cardoso '13
Chapman University	Trevor Moseley '13 [1-13]	Taylor Forster '13 [1-8] Catherine Bevens '14 [9-13]
Panthers	Alyssa Aoki '12 [1-13]	Lauren Mcnally '12 [1-5, 9-13] Alyssa Aoki '12 [6-8]
	Max Moosmann '11
Northwestern University	Geoff Pedrick '12	Steve Blackman '11
Wildcats	Nicholas Campbell '12	Katherine Nickele '12
	John Hodges '13
Santa Clara University	Maxwell Wyman '12
Santa Clara
	Maxwell Wyman '12
Stanford University	Kevin Laube '14 [1-6, 9-11] Nick Dugdale '12 [7-8, 12-13]	Carolyn Ortel '14 [1-6] Anna Mcconnell '14 [7-13]
Cardinal	Mateo Vargas '14	Rebecca King '13
	Oliver Toole '14
University of California at Berkeley	Aubrey Toole '12	Sarah Adams '13
Berkeley	Travis Benton '14	Ashley Borom '11
	Dominique Bertrand '11
University of California at Davis	Ryan Lee '12	Elizabeth Thome '11
UC Davis	Ryan Lee '12	Elizabeth Thome '11
	Jonathan Wilkerson '11
University of California at Irvine	Jack Porter '11	Christopher Huang '12
Anteaters	Rex Cameron '12	Blair Johnston '11
	William Larsen '13
University of California at Los Angeles	Oscar Jasklowski '11	Louise Lehman '14
Bruins	Andrew Morton '11	Emelia Pelliccio '13
	Nils Resvik '12
University of California at San Diego	Eric Alamillo '13	Amanda Suarez '13
UC San Diego	Matthew Nguyen '12 [1-11] Tyler Wooldridge '14 [12-13]	Vincent Voong '12 [1-3, 9-11] Jennifer Lyons '12 [4-8, 12-13]
	John Olson '14
University of California at Santa Barbara	Ryan Sullivan '12	Keely Scates '12
Gauchos	Nicholas Kaschak '12	Caitlin Beavers '12
	Cameron Walsh '13
University of California at Santa Cruz	Andrew Cowley '12	Mike Mccarthy '14
UC Santa Cruz	Connor Bescos '11	Kimberley Cohan '14
	Michael Radziejowski '13
University of Hawaii	Zachary Hester '10	Hanne Nagatani '13
Rainbows	William Peterson '11	Tahnee Allman '12
	Craig Schifferns '12
University of Oregon	Philip Gordon '12	Cara Kuhlman '11
Ducks	Andrew Balter '12	Hyojung Na '12
	Elliot Drake '12
University of Southern California	Stephen Lue '12 [1-5, 12-13] Kelsey Rupp '12 [6-11]	Alexander Kraebel '11 [1-5, 12-13]
Trojans	Emily Dahl '13	Maggie Nolting '14
	Cameron Hutcheson '14
University of Washington
Huskies	Molly Utter '14
	Jake Antles '13
Western Washington University	Bryan Rust '11	Charles Hartman '13
Vikings	Patrick Taylor '12	Angela Gossom '13
	Paul Foley '15

Conditions — 11/13/2010 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 29% · Pressure 1019.9 hPa

Temperature

71°F

↑ 78°F ↓ 52°F

Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.8 kn

avg · max 7.1 kn

Gusts to 14.6 kn

From NW (320°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover12% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity29% Pressure1019.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 6 kn · W 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at UC Santa Barbara: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.03

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.07 ± 0.06)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC Santa Barbara by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled days at UC Santa Barbara).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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