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Stoney Burke Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 1 31 60 91
2 Huskies Huskies Huskies 45 60 105
3 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 89 36 125
4 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 53 88 141
5 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 49 97 146
6 Golden Bears 1 Golden Bears 1 Golden Bears 1 81 91 172
7 Husky Women Husky Women Husky Women 85 91 176
8 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 2 104 72 176
9 Vikings 1 Vikings 1 Vikings 1 108 70 178
10 Trojans Trojans Trojans 78 101 179
11 Anteaters Anteaters Anteaters 108 71 179
12 Broncos Broncos Broncos 99 82 181
13 California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 32 158 190
14 Tritons Tritons Tritons 112 82 194
15 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 52 154 206
16 Golden Bears 2 Golden Bears 2 Golden Bears 2 130 78 208
17 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 138 72 210
18 California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 149 70 219
19 Vikings 2 Vikings 2 Vikings 2 139 106 245
20 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 138 146 284
21 California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 145 140 285
22 Oregon State Oregon State Oregon State 154 133 287
23 University of Oregon University of Oregon Women's 150 185 335
24 Aggies Aggies Aggies 183 171 354
25 Mustang Mustang Mustang 169 186 355
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 1 3 6 3 1 7 4 1 6 31 Adam Pokras '14
Cienna Patmont '12
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 1 11 1 2 12 2 2 1 32 Gregory Dair '15
Bianca Barnes '15
Huskies Huskies Huskies 2 2 5 3 6 10 7 10 45
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 4 3 2 15 5 6 5 9 49 John Ortel '15
Samantha Steele '16
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 5 5 6 13 2 5 14 2 52 Philip Gordon '12
Jamie Wai '12
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 8 12 12 4 1 7 4 5 53 Shane Young '14 [1-8]
Alex Newton '16 [1-4, 7-8]
Nicholas Santos '15 [5-6]
Trojans Trojans Trojans 15 1 19 10 11 8 10 4 78
Golden Bears 1 Golden Bears 1 Golden Bears 1 11 14 4 8 4 16 11 13 81
Husky Women Husky Women Husky Women 7 8 10 18 13 12 9 8 85
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 6 9 8 12 DSQ 1 15 12 89 Cameron Walsh '13
Kimberly Sultz '13
Broncos Broncos Broncos 16 18 13 7 21 14 3 7 99
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 2 10 7 18 6 14 3 20 OCS 104 Madeline Kennedy '14
Katrina Berry '15
Vikings 1 Vikings 1 Vikings 1 21 4 15 17 9 21 18 3 108
Anteaters Anteaters Anteaters 23 19 9 11 3 13 16 14 108
Tritons Tritons Tritons 12 15 11 16 10 20 17 11 112
Golden Bears 2 Golden Bears 2 Golden Bears 2 19 13 7 5 8 DSQ DNS DNS 130
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 18 22 14 19 18 19 8 20 138 Ian Spilman '15
Mike Mccarthy '14
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 22 16 24 9 15 15 19 18 138 Peter Bailey '15
Justina Leo '15
Vikings 2 Vikings 2 Vikings 2 9 17 16 14 19 17 21 OCS 139
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 14 23 25 21 16 18 12 16 145 Hanna Miller '15
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 17 25 20 20 OCS 9 6 OCS 149 Scott Doyle '14
Ryan Orphan '16
University of Oregon University of Oregon Women's 13 10 21 22 20 23 22 19 150 Eliza Pearce '15
Katherine Emberley '13
Oregon State Oregon State Oregon State 20 20 17 DSQ DSQ 11 13 21 154
Mustang Mustang Mustang 24 21 22 23 17 22 23 17 169
Aggies Aggies Aggies 25 24 23 24 22 24 DNS 15 183
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 12 1 4 1 1 1 13 3 36 Ian Stokes '16
Erica Byerley '13
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 1 1 12 9 4 4 2 16 12 60 James Foster '14 [1-6]
Mitchell Icard '13 [7-8]
Ana-Melissa Kea '13 [1-6]
Huskies Huskies Huskies 7 7 5 2 3 9 14 13 60
Vikings 1 Vikings 1 Vikings 1 4 9 7 17 14 7 6 6 70
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 18 5 8 15 9 3 4 8 70 Matthew Van Rensselaer '13
Eileen Welch '15
Anteaters Anteaters Anteaters 11 18 2 6 5 6 9 14 71
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 2 13 20 3 3 2 14 12 5 72 Hanne Nagatani '13
Lindsay Stewart '13
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 17 8 6 16 13 8 2 2 72 Emelia Pelliccio '13
Erica Parker '14
Golden Bears 2 Golden Bears 2 Golden Bears 2 19 4 11 5 10 17 5 7 78
Broncos Broncos Broncos 2 6 13 18 18 21 3 1 82
Tritons Tritons Tritons 6 3 14 10 12 11 15 11 82
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 16 11 22 8 11 4 1 15 88 John Hill '13
Foya Lazare '14
Husky Women Husky Women Husky Women 3 2 10 12 16 12 17 19 91
Golden Bears 1 Golden Bears 1 Golden Bears 1 10 15 18 11 7 5 7 18 91
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 21 13 1 7 15 10 20 10 97 Max Kohrman '15
Michelle Catania '16
Trojans Trojans Trojans 22 10 12 9 6 16 10 16 101
Vikings 2 Vikings 2 Vikings 2 9 17 17 20 8 13 18 4 106
Oregon State Oregon State Oregon State 15 14 19 14 20 23 8 20 133
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 20 21 15 19 19 18 19 9 140 Mark Hurdle '13
Natalie Cardoso '13
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 5 23 23 21 21 15 21 17 146 Alex Verdoia '15
Amr Amr '15
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 8 19 20 13 24 24 22 24 154 Ryan Fritsen '14
Mat Laffitte '13
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 14 24 16 22 17 19 23 23 158 Jeffrey Tedmori '15 [1-2, 5-8]
Sierra Marangola '15 [3-4]
Claire Avery '16 [1-2, 5-8]
Alexa Gaddis '15 [3-4]
Aggies Aggies Aggies 25 22 21 23 22 22 11 25 171
University of Oregon University of Oregon Women's 23 16 24 25 25 25 25 22 185 Kaili Swetland '14
Jan Raether '15
Mustang Mustang Mustang 24 25 25 24 23 20 24 21 186
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.280+0.28
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Golden Bears 1Golden Bears 1 Golden Bears 12323232323232323
Golden Bears 2Golden Bears 2 Golden Bears 22424242424242424
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers11111111
MustangMustang Mustang33333333
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins99999999
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers77777777
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows 13535353535353535
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows 23636363636363636
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters1111111111111111
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks7373737373737373
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Women's7474747474747474
Oregon StateOregon State Oregon State7575757575757575
BroncosBroncos Broncos1919191919191919
TrojansTrojans Trojans3737373737373737
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal2121212121212121
AggiesAggies Aggies4747474747474747
AnteatersAnteaters Anteaters2525252525252525
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins2727272727272727
TritonsTritons Tritons2929292929292929
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos3131313131313131
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's3333333333333333
HuskiesHuskies Huskies8181818181818181
Husky WomenHusky Women Husky Women8282828282828282
Vikings 1Vikings 1 Vikings 18787878787878787
Vikings 2Vikings 2 Vikings 28888888888888888

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Golden Bears 1Golden Bears 1 Golden Bears 12323232323232323
Golden Bears 2Golden Bears 2 Golden Bears 22424242424242424
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers11111111
MustangMustang Mustang33333333
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins99999999
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers77777777
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows 13535353535353535
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows 23636363636363636
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters1111111111111111
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks7373737373737373
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Women's7474747474747474
Oregon StateOregon State Oregon State7575757575757575
BroncosBroncos Broncos1919191919191919
TrojansTrojans Trojans3737373737373737
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal2121212121212121
AggiesAggies Aggies4747474747474747
AnteatersAnteaters Anteaters2525252525252525
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins2727272727272727
TritonsTritons Tritons2929292929292929
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos3131313131313131
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's3333333333333333
HuskiesHuskies Huskies8181818181818181
Husky WomenHusky Women Husky Women8282828282828282
Vikings 1Vikings 1 Vikings 18787878787878787
Vikings 2Vikings 2 Vikings 28888888888888888

Conditions — 10/13/2012 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1024.1 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 73°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.9 kn
avg  ·  max 6.9 kn
Gusts to 17.3 kn
From WNW (285°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover7% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1024.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn · W 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Berkeley: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.04 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Berkeley by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (24 labelled days at Berkeley).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →