Outlaw

HostOregon
Date10/21/2017
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

Analysis

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	University of Washington	Huskies 3	35	23	58
2	University of Washington	Huskies 1	39	35	74
3	Oregon State University	Beavers 2	55	46	101
4	University of Washington	Huskies 2	49	59	108
5	Western Washington University	Vikings 1	61	80	141
6	Oregon State University	Beavers 1	93	49	142
7	Western Washington University	Vikings 2	75	67	142
8	University of Oregon	Ducks	76	97	173
9	Loggers 1	Loggers 1	87	102	189
10	Loggers 2	Loggers 2	99	107	206

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
University of Washington	Huskies 3	2	1	1	4	2	2	1	2	7	OCS	1	1	35	Connor Hughes '19 Audrey Jacobs '18
University of Washington	Huskies 1	1	8	2	2	5	1	3	1	1	OCS	2	2	39	Nathaniel Gordon '20 Avery Wolf '21
University of Washington	Huskies 2	OCS	3	3	3	3	5	2	5	2	3	5	4	49	Erik Skeel '20 Joanna Garcia '19
Oregon State University	Beavers 2	8	10	5	1	1	3	6	3	4	2	9	3	55	Kyle Padgett '21 [1-12] Nick Drachnik '20 [1-6] Kylee Shimomura '21 [7-12]
Western Washington University	Vikings 1	7	5	7	5	4	7	7	4	6	1	3	5	61	Carter Erickson '18 Yumi-Shika Shridhar '20
Western Washington University	Vikings 2	OCS	4	4	6	7	4	5	7	8	4	8	7	75	Dillon Kilroy '19 Chandler Sharp '19
University of Oregon	Ducks	6	6	8	7	6	6	4	6	3	6	10	8	76	Sam Reul '19 [1-10] Emily Burns '20 [11-12] Marelie Vorster '20 [1-10]
Loggers 1	Loggers 1	5	9	6	8	10	10	8	8	5	5	7	6	87
Oregon State University	Beavers 1	3	2	9	10	9	8	9	9	9	OCS	4	10	93	Andrew Wilkinson '18 Hannah Norum '18
Loggers 2	Loggers 2	4	7	10	9	8	9	10	10	10	7	6	9	99

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
University of Washington	Huskies 3	6	6	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	23	Karl Skeel '20 Farzana Mohamedali '20
University of Washington	Huskies 1	1	1	5	3	2	3	3	3	3	6	3	2	35	Austin Hauter '21 Blake Winner '20
Oregon State University	Beavers 2	9	9	4	2	4	2	2	1	4	2	2	5	46	Thomas Hope '20 [1-12] Natalie Shaw '20 [1-6] Danielle Dow '20 [7-12]
Oregon State University	Beavers 1	2	2	6	4	6	6	4	6	2	3	4	4	49	Matthew Reynolds '20 Matthew Alonso '21
University of Washington	Huskies 2	3	5	3	7	3	4	5	4	7	10	5	3	59	Shaan Shridhar '19 Elizabeth Landefeld '21
Western Washington University	Vikings 2	5	4	2	5	7	8	6	7	5	4	7	7	67	Carter Dojan '20 Giancarlo Defrancesco '21
Western Washington University	Vikings 1	8	7	8	6	5	5	7	8	6	5	9	6	80	Benjamin Morasch '20 Reilly Berkshire '20
University of Oregon	Ducks	7	8	7	9	9	9	9	5	9	9	8	8	97	Sam Reul '19 [1-10] Emily Burns '20 [11-12] Marelie Vorster '20 [1-10]
Loggers 1	Loggers 1	10	10	9	8	8	7	8	DNF	8	8	6	9	102
Loggers 2	Loggers 2	4	3	10	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	9	10	7	10	10	107

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.080+0.08

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A
Oregon State University Beavers 2	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Loggers 1 Loggers 1	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83
Loggers 2 Loggers 2	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72
University of Washington Huskies 1	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81
University of Washington Huskies 3	82	82	82	82	82	82	82	82	82	82	82	82

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B
Oregon State University Beavers 2	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Loggers 1 Loggers 1	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83
Loggers 2 Loggers 2	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72
University of Washington Huskies 1	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81
University of Washington Huskies 3	82	82	82	82	82	82	82	82	82	82	82	82

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Oregon State University	Andrew Wilkinson '18	Hannah Norum '18
Beavers 1	Matthew Reynolds '20	Matthew Alonso '21
Oregon State University	Kyle Padgett '21 [1-12]	Nick Drachnik '20 [1-6] Kylee Shimomura '21 [7-12]
Beavers 2	Thomas Hope '20 [1-12]	Natalie Shaw '20 [1-6] Danielle Dow '20 [7-12]
University of Oregon	Sam Reul '19 [1-10] Emily Burns '20 [11-12]	Marelie Vorster '20 [1-10]
Ducks	Sam Reul '19 [1-10] Emily Burns '20 [11-12]	Marelie Vorster '20 [1-10]
University of Washington	Nathaniel Gordon '20	Avery Wolf '21
Huskies 1	Austin Hauter '21	Blake Winner '20
University of Washington	Erik Skeel '20	Joanna Garcia '19
Huskies 2	Shaan Shridhar '19	Elizabeth Landefeld '21
University of Washington	Connor Hughes '19	Audrey Jacobs '18
Huskies 3	Karl Skeel '20	Farzana Mohamedali '20
Western Washington University	Carter Erickson '18	Yumi-Shika Shridhar '20
Vikings 1	Benjamin Morasch '20	Reilly Berkshire '20
Western Washington University	Dillon Kilroy '19	Chandler Sharp '19
Vikings 2	Carter Dojan '20	Giancarlo Defrancesco '21

Conditions — 10/21/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌧️Slight rain

Humidity 95% · Pressure 1014.5 hPa

Temperature

52°F

↑ 56°F ↓ 46°F

Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.0 kn

avg · max 12.2 kn

Gusts to 31.7 kn

From S (183°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity95% Pressure1014.5 hPa Rain0.62 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 13 kn · S 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Oregon: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.14)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.10

Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.55 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Oregon by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Oregon, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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