| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
University of Washington | Huskies 2 | 10–0 |
| 2 | |
University of Washington | Huskies 1 | 8–2 |
| 3 |  |
Western Washington University | Vikings 1 | 6–4 |
| 4 | |
Western Washington University | Vikings 2 | 4–6 |
| 5 |  |
Oregon State University | Beavers | 2–8 |
| 6 | |
Western Washington University | Vikings 3 | 0–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 13,407 team race matches sailed before 2019-04-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 20 of 20 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.210 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.80 ± 0.49: an orderly event, more orderly than 99% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Washington Huskies 2 | 1 | 5.35 school −0.24 | Hayden Potter / Farzana Mohamedali 1.87 Connor Hughes / Maddie Tutton 1.95 Austin Hauter / Blake Winner 1.71 | 79% | 8–0 (100%) | +1.7 |
| 2 | University of Washington Huskies 1 | 2 | 4.98 school −0.24 | Karl Skeel / Avery Wolf 2.33 Erik Skeel / Sarah Kahle 2.22 Ian Wolcott / Elizabeth Murphy 0.55 | 71% | 6–2 (75%) | +0.3 |
| 3 | Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 3 | 4.37 school −0.13, home +0.39 | Dillon Kilroy / Emily Tan 1.76 Chandler Sharp / Reilly Berkshire 1.07 Niko Twilla / Rebecca Sharp 1.21 | 57% | 4–4 (50%) | −0.6 |
| 4 | Western Washington University Vikings 2 | 4 | 3.63 school −0.13, home +0.39 | Nikoline Alden / Taylor Bayly 0.83 Marijke Jorna / Camille Ottaway 1.36 Kendall Kracke / Yumi-Shika Shridhar 1.07 | 42% | 2–6 (25%) | −1.3 |
| 6 | Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 5 | -0.25 school −0.13, home +0.39 | Emily Hammond / Fiona Mcbride 0.04 Wyatt Keysor / Amanda Stathas -0.22 Richard Hill / Eric Jones | 1% | 0–8 (0%) | −0.1 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Washington Huskies 2 | 5.35 | 8.35 | 8–0 | 6.3 | ≥+3.00 | 2.7 | 13% |
| 2 | University of Washington Huskies 1 | 4.98 | 5.24 | 6–2 | 5.7 | +0.26 | 0.1 | 57% |
| 3 | Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 4.37 | 3.91 | 4–4 | 4.6 | −0.47 | 0.2 | 83% |
| 4 | Western Washington University Vikings 2 | 3.63 | 1.66 | 2–6 | 3.3 | −1.97 | 1.6 | 99% |
| 6 | Western Washington University Vikings 3 | -0.25 | -3.25 | 0–8 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hauter | University of Washington | 1.71 | 4.71 | 8–0 | 6.3 | ≥+3.00 | 2.7 | 13% |
| Dillon Kilroy | Western Washington University | 1.76 | 1.29 | 4–4 | 4.6 | −0.47 | 0.2 | 83% |
| Chandler Sharp | Western Washington University | 1.07 | 0.60 | 4–4 | 4.6 | −0.47 | 0.2 | 83% |
| Nikoline Alden | Western Washington University | 0.83 | -1.14 | 2–6 | 3.3 | −1.97 | 1.6 | 99% |
| Emily Hammond | Western Washington University | 0.04 | -2.96 | 0–8 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Wyatt Keysor | Western Washington University | -0.22 | -3.22 | 0–8 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Richard Hill | Western Washington University | -0.60 | -3.60 | 0–8 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | Beavers | 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Washington Huskies 2 | 9–1 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| University of Washington Huskies 1 | 9–1 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 5–10 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W | ✕ |
| Western Washington University Vikings 2 | 5–10 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W | ✕ |
| Oregon State University Beavers | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 5–10 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | Beavers | 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Washington Huskies 2 | 9–1 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| University of Washington Huskies 1 | 9–1 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 5–10 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W | ✕ |
| Western Washington University Vikings 2 | 5–10 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W | ✕ |
| Oregon State University Beavers | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 5–10 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Huskies 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Huskies 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Beavers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Huskies 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Huskies 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Huskies 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Huskies 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Beavers | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Huskies 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Beavers | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Huskies 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Beavers | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Huskies 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Huskies 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Beavers | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Huskies 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Huskies 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Beavers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Huskies 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Huskies 1 | 2-3-6 |
| 20 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Huskies 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Huskies 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Beavers | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Huskies 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Beavers | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Huskies 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Beavers | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Huskies 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 1-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Huskies 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Beavers | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
University of Washington | Huskies 2 | Austin Hauter '21 Connor Hughes '19 Hayden Potter '20 |
Blake Winner '20 Maddie Tutton '21 Farzana Mohamedali '20 |
|
University of Washington | Huskies 1 | Erik Skeel '20 Ian Wolcott '20 Karl Skeel '20 |
Sarah Kahle '22 Elizabeth Murphy '22 Avery Wolf '21 |
|
Western Washington University | Vikings 1 | Chandler Sharp '19 Dillon Kilroy '19 Niko Twilla '21 |
Reilly Berkshire '20 Emily Tan '20 Rebecca Sharp '22 |
|
Western Washington University | Vikings 2 | Kendall Kracke '20 Marijke Jorna '21 Nikoline Alden '19 |
Yumi-Shika Shridhar '20 Camille Ottaway '20 Taylor Bayly '21 |
|
Western Washington University | Vikings 3 | Emily Hammond '20 Richard Hill '20 Wyatt Keysor '20 |
Fiona Mcbride '21 Eric Jones '23 Amanda Stathas '19 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
