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Pacific Coast Team Race Championships

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 11,520 team race matches sailed before 2018-04-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 23 of 27 matches (85%) with a log-loss of 0.234 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.30 ± 0.36: a typical event, more orderly than 76% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Stanford University
Cardinal		110.97
school +0.59		Will La Dow / Taylor Kirkpatrick 3.58
Romain Screve / Sarah Placek 3.58
Jack Parkin / Elena Vandenberg 3.27 5–0
Jacob Rosenberg / Kathryn Booker 3.12 4–0		93%9–0 (100%)+0.6
2University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos		29.79
school +0.23		Christopher Weis / Samantha Obel 3.24
Sterling Henken / Elizabeth Moody 3.11 6–2
Neil Stapleton / Claire Hunt 3.24 5–2
Lucas Pierce / Robert Johnson 3.05 3–0		80%7–2 (78%)−0.2
3Cal Poly University S.L.O.
Mustang		56.09
school +0.38		Alyson Crowley / Grace Vandervort 1.86
Liam Hood / Helen Payne 1.88
Ben Brough / Grace Carrick 2.42 5–2
Dallas Butler / Ben Brough 0.33 0–2		33%5–4 (56%)+2.0
4University of Southern California
Trojans		46.93
school −0.51		Peter Wong / Lorea Mendiguren 2.46
Grace Yakutis / Melissa Schem 2.31
Nicholas Stefanoni / Mackenzie Freeman 2.63		36%3–6 (33%)−0.2
5University of Hawaii
Rainbows		37.84
school +0.08, home +0.43		Patrick Wilkinson / Danielle Ahir 2.53
Michael Pacholski / Kelly Sojka 2.56 1–3
Cuylar Zimmerman / Sophie Deming 2.46 1–2
Jeremy Hitchcock / Cantlen Forni 2.35 0–2
Michael Magnussen / Annika Garrett 0–1
Cuylar Zimmerman / Paige Sullivan 2.44 1–0
Michael Pacholski / Annika Garrett 2.69 1–0		57%2–4 (33%)−1.4
6University of California at Berkeley
Bears		65.67
school −0.21		Cole Fargo / Ekaterina Goncharova 1.61
Drake Hayes / Paris Sato 2.21
Henry Keenan / Megan Grosspietsch 2.04		22%1–5 (17%)−0.4
7University of California at Los Angeles
Bruins		74.63
school −0.49		Leah Ford / Hallie Muller 1.58
Laura Roudebush / Maddy Kuhn 1.79
Nicholas Lenz Lenz / Abraham Dearden 1.71		9%0–6 (0%)−0.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Stanford University10.9713.979–08.4≥+3.001.050%
3Cal Poly University S.L.O.6.098.115–42.9+2.022.87%
2University of California at Santa Barbara9.799.567–27.2−0.230.081%
4University of Southern California6.936.703–63.2−0.230.077%
6University of California at Berkeley5.675.101–51.3−0.570.187%
5University of Hawaii7.845.982–43.4−1.861.999%
7University of California at Los Angeles4.631.630–60.5≤−3.000.8>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Ben BroughCal Poly University S.L.O.2.424.465–22.9+2.042.97%
Alyson CrowleyCal Poly University S.L.O.1.863.875–42.9+2.022.87%
Peter WongUniversity of Southern California2.462.223–63.2−0.230.077%
Sterling HenkenUniversity of California at Santa Barbara3.112.876–26.2−0.240.082%
Neil StapletonUniversity of California at Santa Barbara3.242.855–25.3−0.400.186%
Henry KeenanUniversity of California at Berkeley2.041.471–51.3−0.570.187%
Cuylar ZimmermanUniversity of Hawaii2.460.862–22.8−1.591.098%
Leah FordUniversity of California at Los Angeles1.58-1.420–60.5≤−3.000.8>99%
Laura RoudebushUniversity of California at Los Angeles1.79-1.210–60.5≤−3.000.8>99%
Nicholas Lenz LenzUniversity of California at Los Angeles1.71-1.290–60.5≤−3.000.8>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Hawaii24%upset
12University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Berkeley98%
13Stanford UniversityCal Poly University S.L.O.100%
14University of HawaiiUniversity of California at Los Angeles97%
15University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Southern California95%
16Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Berkeley100%
17Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of California at Los Angeles87%
18University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Hawaii85%
19Stanford UniversityUniversity of Southern California98%
110Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of California at Berkeley71%
111University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Los Angeles99%
112Stanford UniversityUniversity of Hawaii95%
113Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of Southern California41%upset
114University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Los Angeles74%
115Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara74%
116Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of Hawaii46%upset
117University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of California at Berkeley78%
118Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Los Angeles100%
119University of California at Santa BarbaraCal Poly University S.L.O.96%
120University of HawaiiUniversity of California at Berkeley92%
121University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of California at Los Angeles91%
222University of California at Santa BarbaraCal Poly University S.L.O.96%
223Stanford UniversityUniversity of Southern California98%
224University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Southern California95%
225Stanford UniversityCal Poly University S.L.O.100%
226Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of Southern California40%upset
227Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara74%

Round 1

TeamRec.CardinalGauchosMustangTrojansRainbowsBearsBruins
Stanford University Cardinal6–0✕WWWWWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos5–1L✕WWWWW
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang4–2LL✕WWWW
University of Southern California Trojans3–3LLL✕WWW
University of Hawaii Rainbows2–4LLLL✕WW
University of California at Berkeley Bears1–5LLLLL✕W
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins0–6LLLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.CardinalGauchosMustangTrojans
Stanford University Cardinal3–0✕WWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos2–1L✕WW
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang1–2LL✕W
University of Southern California Trojans0–3LLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of Southern California Trojans 1-2-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-4-6
2 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-6
3 Stanford University Cardinal 2-3-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-5-6
4 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-4 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3-5-6
5 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-4-6
6 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
7 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-2-4 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3-5-6
8 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-6 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-4-5
9 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of Southern California Trojans 4-5-6
10 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
11 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 4-5-6
12 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-5-6
13 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-2-4 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-5-6
14 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-3-6 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2-4-5
15 Stanford University Cardinal 1-3-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-5-6
16 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-2-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-4-6
17 University of Southern California Trojans 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-6
18 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 4-5-6
19 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 4-5-6
20 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-3-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-5-6
21 University of Southern California Trojans 2-3-4 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1-5-6
22 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-3-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-5-6
23 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-4-6
24 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-4-6
25 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 4-5-6
26 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-4-5 def. University of Southern California Trojans 2-3-6
27 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-5-6

Conditions — 04/28/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1013.6 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 69°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.4 kn
avg  ·  max 9.3 kn
Gusts to 17.9 kn
From NNW (344°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover90% Sunshine6.3 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1013.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Hawaii — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Hawaii in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hawaii by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Hawaii, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →