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PCCSC Team Race Championships - Carter Ford Trophy

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 7–1
2 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 6–2
3 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 5–3
4 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2–6
5 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 0–8

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 8,954 team race matches sailed before 2017-04-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 18 of 20 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.378 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.31 ± 0.39: a typical event, more orderly than 18% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Stanford University
Cardinal		111.83
school +0.48, home +0.38		Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk / Taylor Kirkpatrick 3.31
Will La Dow / Kathryn Booker 4.06
Jacob Rosenberg / Sarah Placek 3.59		96%7–1 (88%)−0.7
2University of Hawaii
Rainbows		38.24
school −0.11		Chuck Eaton / Annika Garrett 3.02
Michael Pacholski / Cole Brauer 2.83
Jeremy Hitchcock / Danielle Ahir 2.48 4–0
Patrick Wilkinson / Danielle Ahir 2.43 2–2		48%6–2 (75%)+2.1
3University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos		29.98
school +0.44		Sterling Henken / Elizabeth Moody 3.08
Christopher Weis / Claire Hunt 3.22
Stephen Long / Ellen Gable 3.19 3–3
Stephen Long / Kristina Miller 3.31 2–0		73%5–3 (62%)−0.9
4Cal Poly University S.L.O.
Mustang		46.61
school +0.20		Ben Brough / Helen Payne 2.41
Joseph Lausten / Belle Lemoine 1.77
Liam Hood / Alyson Crowley 2.20		21%2–6 (25%)+0.3
5University of California at Berkeley
Bears		55.98
school −0.07		Andrew Solomon / Ekaterina Goncharova 2.54
Ian Markowitz / Megan Grosspietsch 1.91
Eric Witte / Kylie Fawcett 1.48		12%0–8 (0%)−0.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
2University of Hawaii8.2410.966–23.8+2.724.42%
4Cal Poly University S.L.O.6.616.982–61.7+0.370.159%
3University of California at Santa Barbara9.988.745–35.9−1.240.896%
1Stanford University11.8310.477–17.7−1.360.797%
5University of California at Berkeley5.982.980–80.9≤−3.001.5>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Jeremy HitchcockUniversity of Hawaii2.485.484–03.5≥+3.000.758%
Chuck EatonUniversity of Hawaii3.025.736–23.8+2.724.42%
Ben BroughCal Poly University S.L.O.2.412.782–61.7+0.370.159%
Joseph LaustenCal Poly University S.L.O.1.772.142–61.7+0.370.159%
Sterling HenkenUniversity of California at Santa Barbara3.081.845–35.9−1.240.896%
Stephen LongUniversity of California at Santa Barbara3.191.945–35.9−1.240.896%
Reinier Eenkema Van DijkStanford University3.311.957–17.7−1.360.797%
Andrew SolomonUniversity of California at Berkeley2.54-0.460–80.9≤−3.001.5>99%
Ian MarkowitzUniversity of California at Berkeley1.91-1.090–80.9≤−3.001.5>99%
Eric WitteUniversity of California at Berkeley1.48-1.520–80.9≤−3.001.5>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of HawaiiCal Poly University S.L.O.84%
12Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Berkeley100%
13University of California at Santa BarbaraCal Poly University S.L.O.97%
14University of HawaiiUniversity of California at Berkeley91%
15Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara87%
16Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of California at Berkeley66%
17University of HawaiiStanford University3%upset
18University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Berkeley98%
19Stanford UniversityCal Poly University S.L.O.99%
110University of HawaiiUniversity of California at Santa Barbara15%upset
211University of HawaiiCal Poly University S.L.O.84%
212Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Berkeley100%
213University of California at Santa BarbaraCal Poly University S.L.O.97%
214University of HawaiiUniversity of California at Berkeley91%
215Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara87%
216Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of California at Berkeley65%
217Stanford UniversityUniversity of Hawaii97%
218University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Berkeley98%
219Stanford UniversityCal Poly University S.L.O.99%
220University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Hawaii85%

Round 1

TeamRec.CardinalRainbowsGauchosMustangBears
Stanford University Cardinal3–1✕LWWW
University of Hawaii Rainbows4–0W✕WWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos2–2LL✕WW
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang1–3LLL✕W
University of California at Berkeley Bears0–4LLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.CardinalRainbowsGauchosMustangBears
Stanford University Cardinal4–0✕WWWW
University of Hawaii Rainbows2–2L✕LWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos3–1LW✕WW
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang1–3LLL✕W
University of California at Berkeley Bears0–4LLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of Hawaii Rainbows 2-3-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-5-6
2 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-5-6
3 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-6 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 3-4-5
4 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-5
5 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-5
6 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-2-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-5-6
7 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-3-5 def. Stanford University Cardinal 2-4-6
8 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-6
9 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 4-5-6
10 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4-5-6
11 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 3-5-6
12 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-5
13 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 4-5-6
14 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-6
15 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-6
16 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-2-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-5
17 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-5-6
18 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-5-6
19 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 4-5-6
20 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-3-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 2-4-6

Conditions — 04/30/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 43%  ·  Pressure 1019.9 hPa

Temperature

71°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 7.3 kn
Gusts to 20.4 kn
From NNW (335°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity43% Pressure1019.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Stanford — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Stanford in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled fleet-race days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →