Polar Bear Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen 8 14 22
2 Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 13 10 23
3 Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 26 9 35
4 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Islesboro 11 28 39
5 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 33 8 41
6 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 30 23 53
7 Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 21 33 54
8 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Boothbay 24 36 60
9 Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 26 35 61
10 Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Stags 39 27 66
11 Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Red Hawks 33 41 74
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen 1 2 1 4 8 Caleb Robinson '18
Sierra Farhman '18
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Islesboro 2 6 2 1 11 Emily Lau '19
Sophie Lan '21
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 3 1 6 3 13 Piers Klein '18
Caroline Williams '19
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 7 8 4 2 21 Nick Cushman '17
Annabelle Wieser '17
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Boothbay 4 3 9 8 24 Hamilton Barclay '23
Ella Beauregard '21
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 5 5 7 9 26 Carter Brock '17
Patrick Miller '19
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 11 4 5 6 26 Ben Palmer '17
Isabella Pardales '17
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 6 7 10 7 30 Cameron Ritchie '20
Darcy Lavoie '19
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Red Hawks 8 9 11 5 33 Alex Merrill '17
Aaron Mcnally '20
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 9 11 3 10 33 Calob Niles '17
Peter Jordan '18
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Stags 10 10 8 11 39 Andrew Morrissette '17
Alex Drago '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 2 3 2 1 8 Ava Haag '17
Greata Morissette '17
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 4 1 1 3 9 Griffin Primeau '19
Anna Parker '18
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 3 2 3 2 10 Nathan Ikeda '17
Andrew Russo '18
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen 1 4 5 4 14 Grace Mooridian '17
Peter Morrissette '18
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 6 5 7 5 23 Joshua Scheidt '19
Anders Klink '19
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Stags 10 7 4 6 27 Christian Lamontagne '17
Guggenheim Ana '17
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Islesboro 5 6 9 8 28 Rylee Sienkiewicz '20
Ava Schlottman '20
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 8 9 6 10 33 Clementine Furber '17
Elizabeth Thompson '18
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 9 11 8 7 35 Alec Bodenski '19
Zachary Ball '19
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Boothbay 7 8 10 11 36 Gabby Boord '19
Nate Ridegut '21
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Red Hawks 11 10 11 9 41 Michael Hayes '20
Eli Dunphy '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers1133
Champlain VUHSChamplain VUHS Red Hawks221212
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Stags3355
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Dragons4422
Falmouth High School (ME)Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen5577
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs6644
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Boothbay101088
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Islesboro8866
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Northern VT991111
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME7799
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers111111

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers2244
Champlain VUHSChamplain VUHS Red Hawks111111
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Stags4466
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Dragons3311
Falmouth High School (ME)Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen6688
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs5533
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Boothbay9977
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Islesboro7755
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Northern VT10101212
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME881010
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers121222

Conditions — 09/04/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1026.4 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 7.1 kn
Gusts to 17.5 kn
From ESE (121°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1026.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Bowdoin College: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.03 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bowdoin College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Bowdoin College, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →