| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Camden Hills RHS | Varsity | 3–0 |
| 2 |  |
Portland High School | Bulldogs | 2–1 |
| 3 |  |
Yarmouth High School | Clippers | 1–2 |
| 4 |  |
Cheverus High School | Varsity | 0–3 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,567 team race matches sailed before 2018-04-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 1 of 1 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.431 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Camden Hills RHS Varsity | 1 | 2.79 school +0.18 | Calvin James / Mcclennan Thomas 0.12 Morin Simon / King Courtney 1.21 Levitt Hugh / Mccellan Amelia 1.28 | 65% | 1–0 (100%) | +0.3 |
| 2 | Portland High School Bulldogs | 2 | 2.00 school −0.06 | Hal Clews / Lucy Kilbreth 1.02 John Holt / Jondall Norris 0.58 Elizabeth Thompson / Eamon Browne 0.45 | 35% | 0–1 (0%) | −0.3 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Camden Hills RHS | 2.79 | 5.79 | 1–0 | 0.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 65% |
| 2 | Portland High School | 2.00 | -1.00 | 0–1 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Camden Hills RHS | Portland High School | 65% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Clippers | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Clippers | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Clippers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Camden Hills RHS | Varsity | Calvin James '18 Levitt Hugh '18 Morin Simon '18 |
Mcclennan Thomas '18 Mccellan Amelia '20 King Courtney '19 |
|
Portland High School | Bulldogs | Elizabeth Thompson '18 Hal Clews '19 John Holt '18 |
Eamon Browne '18 Lucy Kilbreth '20 Jondall Norris '20 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
