Cheverus Team Race

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 4,691 team race matches sailed before 2018-05-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 8 of 9 matches (89%) with a log-loss of 0.317 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen	1	4.90 school −0.26	Caleb Robinson / Alex Mazelsky 2.04 Peter Morrissette / Emma Cole 1.94 Brendan Mittleider / Catherine Carpenter	83%	3–0 (100%)	+0.5
2	Boston College High School Eagles	2	4.59 school +0.14	Bedford Will / Creamer Zachary 1.34 Bell Jed / Buckeridge Tyler 1.45 Graziano Nick / Moreira Simon 1.54	81%	3–1 (75%)	−0.2
3	Mt. Desert Island HS Varsity	4	1.53 school −0.30	Alec Fisichella / Jacob Peabody 1.09 Lucas Ingebritson / Nate Ingebritson 0.51 Nate Philbrook / Sofie Dowling	37%	2–2 (50%)	+0.5
4	Portland High School Bulldogs	3	1.19 school −0.10	Hal Clews / Lucy Kilbreth 0.99 John Holt / Alice Thompson 0.38 Adam Wendell-Pearson / Eamon Browne	40%	0–3 (0%)	−1.2
7	Cheverus High School Varsity	5	0.13 school −0.18	Alex Drago / Hansen Li Robert Bossong / Clay Hatch William Keith / Matthew Scanlon	15%	1–3 (25%)	+0.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Falmouth High School (ME)	4.90	7.90	3–0	2.5	≥+3.00	0.8	52%
3	Mt. Desert Island HS	1.53	2.70	2–2	1.5	+1.17	0.3	50%
7	Cheverus High School	0.13	1.11	1–3	0.6	+0.98	0.2	50%
2	Boston College High School	4.59	3.91	3–1	3.2	−0.68	0.1	89%
4	Portland High School	1.19	-1.81	0–3	1.2	≤−3.00	2.2	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Brendan Mittleider	Falmouth High School (ME)	1.16	4.16	3–0	2.5	≥+3.00	0.8	52%
Alec Fisichella	Mt. Desert Island HS	1.09	2.26	2–2	1.5	+1.17	0.3	50%
Lucas Ingebritson	Mt. Desert Island HS	0.51	1.68	2–2	1.5	+1.17	0.3	50%
Nate Philbrook	Mt. Desert Island HS	0.10	1.27	2–2	1.5	+1.17	0.3	50%
Alex Drago	Cheverus High School	-0.10	0.89	1–3	0.6	+0.98	0.2	50%
Robert Bossong	Cheverus High School	0.12	1.10	1–3	0.6	+0.98	0.2	50%
William Keith	Cheverus High School	0.14	1.12	1–3	0.6	+0.98	0.2	50%
Bedford Will	Boston College High School	1.34	0.66	3–1	3.2	−0.68	0.1	89%
Bell Jed	Boston College High School	1.45	0.77	3–1	3.2	−0.68	0.1	89%
Graziano Nick	Boston College High School	1.54	0.86	3–1	3.2	−0.68	0.1	89%
Adam Wendell-Pearson	Portland High School	-0.12	-3.12	0–3	1.2	≤−3.00	2.2	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Yachtsmen	1-2-3	def.		Eagles	4-5-6
2		Rangers	1-2-3	def.		Varsity	4-5-6
3		Varsity	1-2-3	def.		Clippers	4-5-6
4		Eagles	1-2-3	def.		Rangers	4-5-6
5		Clippers	1-2-3	def.		Varsity	4-5-6
6		Varsity	1-2-3	def.		Bulldogs	4-5-6
7		Yachtsmen	1-2-3	def.		Rangers	4-5-6
8		Varsity	1-2-3	def.		Varsity	4-5-6
9		Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.		Clippers	4-5-6
10		Yachtsmen	1-2-3	def.		Varsity	4-5-6
11		Eagles	1-2-3	def.		Clippers	4-5-6
12		Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.		Rangers	4-5-6
13		Varsity	1-2-3	def.		Bulldogs	4-5-6
14		Yachtsmen	1-2-3	def.		Clippers	4-5-6
15		Eagles	1-2-3	def.		Varsity	4-5-6
16		Yachtsmen	1-2-3	def.		Varsity	4-5-6
17		Rangers	1-2-3	def.		Clippers	4-5-6
18		Eagles	1-2-3	def.		Bulldogs	4-5-6
19		Eagles	1-2-3	def.		Varsity	4-5-6

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Falmouth High School (ME)	Yachtsmen	Brendan Mittleider '19 Caleb Robinson '18 Peter Morrissette '18	Catherine Carpenter '19 Alex Mazelsky '20 Emma Cole '21
	Boston College High School	Eagles	Bedford Will '18 Bell Jed '18 Graziano Nick '19	Creamer Zachary '19 Buckeridge Tyler '19 Moreira Simon '18
	Mt. Desert Island HS	Varsity	Alec Fisichella '19 Lucas Ingebritson '19 Nate Philbrook '20	Jacob Peabody '21 Nate Ingebritson '21 Sofie Dowling '20
	Portland High School	Bulldogs	Adam Wendell-Pearson '20 Hal Clews '19 John Holt '18	Eamon Browne '18 Lucy Kilbreth '20 Alice Thompson '21
	Cheverus High School	Varsity	Alex Drago '19 Robert Bossong '18 William Keith '22	Hansen Li '18 Clay Hatch '22 Matthew Scanlon '22