Northern Vermont Fall Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Fishwagons 23 16 39
2 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 1 30 40 70
3 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 41 37 78
4 Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Varsity 1 39 44 83
5 Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 51 34 85
6 Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Rangers 48 52 100
7 Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Varsity 2 50 58 108
8 Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Varsity 56 56 112
9 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 2 68 68 136
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Fishwagons DSQ 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 2 23 Islay Van Dusen '18
Tucker Braun '18
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 1 5 7 3 2 2 2 2 1 6 30 Julia Shannon-Grillo '20 [1-8]
Cam Ritchie '20 [9]
Lucia Pendolino '19 [1-8]
Norah Deming '18 [9]
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Varsity 1 3 2 5 5 7 8 3 2 4 39 Jack Merrill '19 [1-8]
Issac Goldman '20 [9]
Aaron Mcnally '20 [1-8]
Jeff Goldman '18 [9]
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 4 6 2 4 1 7 6 6 5 41 Luke Weiser '19
Alden Coldrock '20
Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Rangers 8 3 7 3 4 3 7 4 9 48 Anna Smith '19
Anna Smith '19
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Varsity 2 2 9 6 8 5 5 5 7 3 50 Michael Hayes '20 [1-8]
Thomas Wright '19 [9]
Maura Duval '20 [1-8]
Aaron Mcnally '20 [9]
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 7 5 4 6 6 6 8 8 1 51 Hal Clews '19
Lucy Kilbreth '20
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Varsity 1 4 9 9 8 9 4 5 7 56 Molly Hanrahan '18
Noah Handfeild '20
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 2 6 8 8 7 9 4 9 9 8 68 Noah Powell '21 [1-8]
Seth Fisher-Olvera '20 [9]
Ryan Gladstone '20 [1-8]
Jacob Coffey '18 [9]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Fishwagons 6 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 16 Tyler Lubek '19
Ryan Hamilton '19
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 2 1 6 5 8 6 2 2 2 34 John Holt '18
Jondall Norris '20
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 1 4 4 8 3 1 9 3 4 37 Charlie Metcalfe '19
Peter Jordan '18
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 1 9 3 2 4 2 3 3 7 7 40 Anders Klink '19 [1-8]
Ulrich Meyer '21 [9]
Joshua Scheidt '19 [1-8]
Ezra Miller '18 [9]
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Varsity 1 4 6 5 2 4 4 4 6 9 44 Nathan Hodgson-Walker '18 [1-8]
Claire Goldman '21 [9]
Lulu Loucheim '21 [1-8]
Lily Ledak '21 [9]
Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Rangers 3 7 3 7 5 9 5 5 8 52 Ethan Adshead '21
Jayme Morrison '19
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Varsity 7 5 9 3 7 8 8 4 5 56 Julia Phipps '20
Nolan Evans '20
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Varsity 2 5 8 8 6 6 7 7 8 3 58 Ben Leonard '20 [1-8]
Lulu Loucheim '21 [9]
Lexi Anderson '21 [1-8]
Sophie Dauerman '20 [9]
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 2 8 9 7 9 9 5 6 9 6 68 Zoe Greenhouse '21 [1-8]
Will Keeton '18 [9]
Aiden Daniels '19 [1-8]
John Merrill '19 [9]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Champlain VUHSChamplain VUHS Varsity 1557711338
Champlain VUHSChamplain VUHS Varsity 2669922445
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Varsity771133886
Greely High School - MaineGreely High School - Maine Rangers992244557
Marblehead High SchoolMarblehead High School Fishwagons113388669
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs224455771
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Northern VT 1338866992
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Northern VT 2445577113
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME886699224

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Champlain VUHSChamplain VUHS Varsity 1669922445
Champlain VUHSChamplain VUHS Varsity 2771133886
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Varsity992244557
Greely High School - MaineGreely High School - Maine Rangers113388669
Marblehead High SchoolMarblehead High School Fishwagons224455771
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs338866992
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Northern VT 1445577113
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Northern VT 2886699224
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME557711338

Conditions — 09/30/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 1025.4 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.1 kn
avg  ·  max 7.8 kn
Gusts to 19.8 kn
From N (357°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover88% Sunshine3.5 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1025.4 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 9 kn · NW 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Champlain VUHS: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.03 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Champlain VUHS by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Champlain VUHS: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →