Casco Bay Fall Open

HostSailMaine
Date09/21/2019
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Falmouth High School, ME	Yachtsmen	31	18	49
2	Manchester/Essex RHS	Hornets	34	38	72
3	Portland High School	Bulldogs	40	35	75
4	Lincoln Academy	Eagles	32	50	82
5	Marblehead High School	Fishwagons	66	43	109
6	Champlain VUHS	Varsity	33	82	115
7	Sharon High School	Varsity	63	53	116
8	Cape Elizabeth High School	Capers	74	48	122
9	Islesboro Central School	Eagles	96	48	144
10	Yarmouth High School	Clippers	84	69	153
11	Barrington High School	Eagles	63	95	158
12	Cheverus High School	Varsity	81	81	162
13	Mt. Desert Island HS	Varsity	85	99	184
14	Greely High School - Maine	Rangers	87	102	189
15	Brewster Academy	Bobcats	94	120	214
16	Burlington High School	Seahorse	125	107	232

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Falmouth High School, ME	Yachtsmen	6	3	2	2	4	6	3	5	31	Catherine Morrissette '20 Alex Mazelsky '20
Lincoln Academy	Eagles	2	5	8	3	2	1	2	9	32	Hamilton Barclay '23 Andrea Gutierrez '20
Champlain VUHS	Varsity	3	4	1	8	1	8	6	2	33	Isaac Goldman '20 Tyler Davis '23
Manchester/Essex RHS	Hornets	9	2	4	1	6	3	1	8	34	Hannah Freeman '20 Ryan Clark '21
Portland High School	Bulldogs	4	10	6	5	3	5	4	3	40	Eva Ermlich '22 Jondall Norris '20
Barrington High School	Eagles	1	16	10	10	7	2	5	12	63	Olin Guck '22 Declan Maddock '23
Sharon High School	Varsity	8	1	13	6	12	13	9	1	63	Briana Chen '20 Jason Yang '20
Marblehead High School	Fishwagons	13	6	7	4	5	4	14	13	66	Jack Dalton '21 Magdelaina Putnam '20
Cape Elizabeth High School	Capers	7	12	3	9	14	11	8	10	74	Aidan Brown '20 Violet Willyard '21
Cheverus High School	Varsity	10	13	9	11	11	12	11	4	81	William Keith '20 [1-8] Clay Hatch '20 [1-4] Michael Scannell '20 [5-8]
Yarmouth High School	Clippers	5	14	12	7	9	14	7	16	84	Wes Pratt '21 Kendrick Langenbach '20
Mt. Desert Island HS	Varsity	15	7	5	14	8	15	10	11	85	Nate Ingebritson '21 Louise Chaplin '20
Greely High School - Maine	Rangers	11	11	14	12	10	7	16	6	87	Ethan Adshead '21 Meg Woolverton '22
Brewster Academy	Bobcats	12	9	11	13	13	9	13	14	94	Huanzhi Mao '21 Trevor Simboli '21
Islesboro Central School	Eagles	14	8	15	15	15	10	12	7	96	Sophie Lau '21 Ava Schlottman '20
Burlington High School	Seahorse	16	15	16	16	16	16	15	15	125	Luke Brown '23 Sarah Phillips '21

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Falmouth High School, ME	Yachtsmen	1	1	1	6	2	3	2	2	18	Sam Rooks '22 Emma Cole '21
Portland High School	Bulldogs	9	9	4	3	6	2	1	1	35	Gavin Sanborn '21 [1-8] Alice Thompson '21 [1-3, 7-8] Lucy Kilbreth '20 [4-6]
Manchester/Essex RHS	Hornets	3	6	5	2	4	5	4	9	38	Rowan Schanley '20 Anna Brzezinski '23
Marblehead High School	Fishwagons	5	7	3	1	5	6	11	5	43	Lucy Tedford '20 Anders Kearney '20
Cape Elizabeth High School	Capers	10	10	11	5	1	4	3	4	48	Jasper Fontana '21 Kyla Christie '21
Islesboro Central School	Eagles	12	2	2	9	9	1	5	8	48	Jett Lindelof '23 Julian Kelly '22
Lincoln Academy	Eagles	6	3	8	4	7	7	9	6	50	Nate Rideout '21 Arden Carleton '22
Sharon High School	Varsity	4	14	6	7	3	8	8	3	53	Janelle Li '21 Fiona Wu '21
Yarmouth High School	Clippers	11	5	10	8	8	9	7	11	69	Eleanor Donahue '21 Nicolas Paulo '21
Cheverus High School	Varsity	8	8	7	15	12	11	6	14	81	Francessca Chace '21 Camden Hom '22
Champlain VUHS	Varsity	2	12	9	14	10	13	10	12	82	Alden Fitz '22 Ryan Gladstone '20
Barrington High School	Eagles	13	11	12	12	14	14	12	7	95	Jack Culton '22 Anne Sweeney '21
Mt. Desert Island HS	Varsity	7	4	14	13	15	16	15	15	99	Joe Minutolo '22 Sofie Dowling '20
Greely High School - Maine	Rangers	15	13	13	11	11	15	14	10	102	William Getchell '21 Nate Howell '22
Burlington High School	Seahorse	14	15	16	10	13	10	16	13	107	Mynard Higgins Pease '20 Greta Gibson '21
Brewster Academy	Bobcats	16	16	15	16	16	12	13	16	120	Phin Byrne '22 Owen Brooks '21

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.060+0.06

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Barrington High School Eagles	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Brewster Academy Bobcats	2	2	16	16	14	14	12	12
Burlington High School Seahorse	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Cape Elizabeth High School Capers	4	4	2	2	16	16	14	14
Champlain VUHS Varsity	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Cheverus High School Varsity	6	6	4	4	2	2	16	16
Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Greely High School - Maine Rangers	8	8	6	6	4	4	2	2
Islesboro Central School Eagles	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Lincoln Academy Eagles	10	10	8	8	6	6	4	4
Manchester/Essex RHS Hornets	11	11	13	13	15	15	1	1
Marblehead High School Fishwagons	12	12	10	10	8	8	6	6
Mt. Desert Island HS Varsity	13	13	15	15	1	1	3	3
Portland High School Bulldogs	14	14	12	12	10	10	8	8
Sharon High School Varsity	15	15	1	1	3	3	5	5
Yarmouth High School Clippers	16	16	14	14	12	12	10	10

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Barrington High School Eagles	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Brewster Academy Bobcats	1	1	15	15	13	13	11	11
Burlington High School Seahorse	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Cape Elizabeth High School Capers	3	3	1	1	15	15	13	13
Champlain VUHS Varsity	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Cheverus High School Varsity	5	5	3	3	1	1	15	15
Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Greely High School - Maine Rangers	7	7	5	5	3	3	1	1
Islesboro Central School Eagles	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Lincoln Academy Eagles	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3
Manchester/Essex RHS Hornets	12	12	14	14	16	16	2	2
Marblehead High School Fishwagons	11	11	9	9	7	7	5	5
Mt. Desert Island HS Varsity	14	14	16	16	2	2	4	4
Portland High School Bulldogs	13	13	11	11	9	9	7	7
Sharon High School Varsity	16	16	2	2	4	4	6	6
Yarmouth High School Clippers	15	15	13	13	11	11	9	9

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Barrington High School	Olin Guck '22	Declan Maddock '23
Eagles	Jack Culton '22	Anne Sweeney '21
Brewster Academy	Huanzhi Mao '21	Trevor Simboli '21
Bobcats	Phin Byrne '22	Owen Brooks '21
Burlington High School	Luke Brown '23	Sarah Phillips '21
Seahorse	Mynard Higgins Pease '20	Greta Gibson '21
Cape Elizabeth High School	Aidan Brown '20	Violet Willyard '21
Capers	Jasper Fontana '21	Kyla Christie '21
Champlain VUHS	Isaac Goldman '20	Tyler Davis '23
Varsity	Alden Fitz '22	Ryan Gladstone '20
Cheverus High School	William Keith '20 [1-8]	Clay Hatch '20 [1-4] Michael Scannell '20 [5-8]
Varsity	Francessca Chace '21	Camden Hom '22
Falmouth High School, ME	Catherine Morrissette '20	Alex Mazelsky '20
Yachtsmen	Sam Rooks '22	Emma Cole '21
Greely High School - Maine	Ethan Adshead '21	Meg Woolverton '22
Rangers	William Getchell '21	Nate Howell '22
Islesboro Central School	Sophie Lau '21	Ava Schlottman '20
Eagles	Jett Lindelof '23	Julian Kelly '22
Lincoln Academy	Hamilton Barclay '23	Andrea Gutierrez '20
Eagles	Nate Rideout '21	Arden Carleton '22
Manchester/Essex RHS	Hannah Freeman '20	Ryan Clark '21
Hornets	Rowan Schanley '20	Anna Brzezinski '23
Marblehead High School	Jack Dalton '21	Magdelaina Putnam '20
Fishwagons	Lucy Tedford '20	Anders Kearney '20
Mt. Desert Island HS	Nate Ingebritson '21	Louise Chaplin '20
Varsity	Joe Minutolo '22	Sofie Dowling '20
Portland High School	Eva Ermlich '22	Jondall Norris '20
Bulldogs	Gavin Sanborn '21 [1-8]	Alice Thompson '21 [1-3, 7-8] Lucy Kilbreth '20 [4-6]
Sharon High School	Briana Chen '20	Jason Yang '20
Varsity	Janelle Li '21	Fiona Wu '21
Yarmouth High School	Wes Pratt '21	Kendrick Langenbach '20
Clippers	Eleanor Donahue '21	Nicolas Paulo '21

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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Casco Bay Fall Open

Division A

Division B

From the notes