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Arnold Brown Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 27 22 49
2 Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 1 25 25 50
3 Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Fishwagons 32 28 60
4 Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Red Hawks 25 36 61
5 Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 35 29 64
6 Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 2 34 42 76
7 Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 45 35 80
8 Moses Brown School Moses Brown School Quakers 39 43 82
9 Staples High School Staples High School The Wreckers 52 MRP 55 MRP 107 MRP
10 Dover Sherborn RHS Dover Sherborn RHS Radiers 59 48 107
11 Natick High School Natick High School Redhawks 50 60 110
12 Forman School Forman School Lions 53 65 118
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 1 3 4 2 3 4 9 25 Joe Serpa '20 [1-6]
Abigail Hammerlund '20 [1-2]
Mike Cosgrave '21 [3-6]
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Red Hawks 4 11 1 4 2 3 25 Jack Merrill '19
Aaron Mcnally '20
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 8 3 7 2 6 1 27 Hal Clews '19
Lucy Kilbreth '20
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Fishwagons 2 2 4 8 9 7 32 Tyler Lubek '19
Catherine Comstock '22
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 2 6 5 3 7 8 5 34 Zach Ward '21
Amelia Kyburg Abbott '22
Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles BKD BKD 6 6 1 10 35 Miguel Vonfedak '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Briana Chen '20 [3-4]
Addison Stead '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Eddie Bielawa '20 [3-4]
Moses Brown School Moses Brown School Quakers 1 8 9 10 3 8 39 Maddy Kerr '19
Olivia Klipfel '21
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 9 6 10 9 5 6 45 Griffen Horne '19
Noah Handfeild '20
Natick High School Natick High School Redhawks 10 1 11 5 11 12 50 Devon Hartigan '19 [1-4]
Maeve Clifford '19 [5-6]
Lilian Briggs '19 [1-4]
Nicole Massa '19 [5-6]
Staples High School Staples High School The Wreckers 5 9 8 1 7 2 52 MRP No Show
No Show
Forman School Forman School Lions 11 10 5 11 12 4 53 Alexandra Borkov '20 [1-6]
Eden Levitt '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Jared Hemley '23 [3-4]
Dover Sherborn RHS Dover Sherborn RHS Radiers 7 7 12 12 10 11 59 Brooks Jordan '20
Julia Mangeym '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 4 8 1 3 5 1 22 Gavin Sanborn '21 [1-2]
Eva Ermlich '22 [3-6]
Jondall Norris '20 [1-2]
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 1 7 4 4 6 2 2 25 Miles Wolff '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Alex Nagel '19 [3-4]
Trent Bilodeau '21 [1-2]
Henry Kyburg Abbott '23 [3-6]
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Fishwagons 9 6 2 1 6 4 28 Ashley Hoguet '23 [1-6]
Anna O'Connor '20 [1-2]
Lucy Tedford '20 [3-6]
Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 5 5 9 4 1 5 29 Christopher Anchan '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Krishanu Datta '19 [3-4]
Jason Yang '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Tyler Vanhelene '19 [3-4]
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 6 3 10 10 3 3 35 Caroline Williams '19
Corinne Lee '19
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Red Hawks 11 2 7 2 4 10 36 Claire Goldman '21
Lily Ledak '21
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 2 2 1 8 12 10 9 42 Caleb Burt '21
Ashtyn Watts '21
Moses Brown School Moses Brown School Quakers 3 10 6 8 9 7 43 Greta Shuster '21 [1-6]
Eli Reville '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Olivia Rocchio-Giordano '21 [3-4]
Dover Sherborn RHS Dover Sherborn RHS Radiers 8 11 5 7 11 6 48 Coleman Doherty '20
Sierra Devine '22
Staples High School Staples High School The Wreckers 1 7 3 9 7 8 55 MRP No Show
No Show
Natick High School Natick High School Redhawks 12 12 11 5 8 12 60 Victoria Conrad '22 [1-4]
Nick Belev '22 [5-6]
Melina Troccolo '19 [1-4]
Forman School Forman School Lions 10 9 12 11 12 11 65 Joel Puckett '21 [1, 3, 5]
Winston Toutain '19 [2, 4, 6]
Jared Hemley '23 [1]
Danny Nichols '21 [2, 5]
Kieran Maynard '22 [3-4, 6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Champlain VUHSChamplain VUHS Red Hawks112233
Dover Sherborn RHSDover Sherborn RHS Radiers223344
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Dragons334455
Forman SchoolForman School Lions445566
Marblehead High SchoolMarblehead High School Fishwagons556677
Marthas Vineyard RHSMarthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 1667788
Marthas Vineyard RHSMarthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 2778899
Moses Brown SchoolMoses Brown School Quakers88991010
Natick High SchoolNatick High School Redhawks9910101111
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs101011111212
Sharon High SchoolSharon High School Eagles1111121211
Staples High SchoolStaples High School The Wreckers12121122

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Champlain VUHSChamplain VUHS Red Hawks778899
Dover Sherborn RHSDover Sherborn RHS Radiers88991010
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Dragons9910101111
Forman SchoolForman School Lions101011111212
Marblehead High SchoolMarblehead High School Fishwagons1111121211
Marthas Vineyard RHSMarthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 112121122
Marthas Vineyard RHSMarthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 2112233
Moses Brown SchoolMoses Brown School Quakers223344
Natick High SchoolNatick High School Redhawks334455
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs445566
Sharon High SchoolSharon High School Eagles556677
Staples High SchoolStaples High School The Wreckers667788
School / Team SkipperCrew
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Jack Merrill '19 Aaron Mcnally '20
Red Hawks Claire Goldman '21 Lily Ledak '21
Dover Sherborn RHS Dover Sherborn RHS Brooks Jordan '20 Julia Mangeym '20
Radiers Coleman Doherty '20 Sierra Devine '22
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Griffen Horne '19 Noah Handfeild '20
Dragons Caroline Williams '19 Corinne Lee '19
Forman School Forman School Alexandra Borkov '20 [1-6] Eden Levitt '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Jared Hemley '23 [3-4]
Lions Joel Puckett '21 [1, 3, 5]
Winston Toutain '19 [2, 4, 6]		 Jared Hemley '23 [1]
Danny Nichols '21 [2, 5]
Kieran Maynard '22 [3-4, 6]
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Tyler Lubek '19 Catherine Comstock '22
Fishwagons Ashley Hoguet '23 [1-6] Anna O'Connor '20 [1-2]
Lucy Tedford '20 [3-6]
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Joe Serpa '20 [1-6] Abigail Hammerlund '20 [1-2]
Mike Cosgrave '21 [3-6]
Vineyarders 1 Miles Wolff '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Alex Nagel '19 [3-4]		 Trent Bilodeau '21 [1-2]
Henry Kyburg Abbott '23 [3-6]
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Zach Ward '21 Amelia Kyburg Abbott '22
Vineyarders 2 Caleb Burt '21 Ashtyn Watts '21
Moses Brown School Moses Brown School Maddy Kerr '19 Olivia Klipfel '21
Quakers Greta Shuster '21 [1-6] Eli Reville '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Olivia Rocchio-Giordano '21 [3-4]
Natick High School Natick High School Devon Hartigan '19 [1-4]
Maeve Clifford '19 [5-6]		 Lilian Briggs '19 [1-4]
Nicole Massa '19 [5-6]
Redhawks Victoria Conrad '22 [1-4]
Nick Belev '22 [5-6]		 Melina Troccolo '19 [1-4]
Portland High School Portland High School Hal Clews '19 Lucy Kilbreth '20
Bulldogs Gavin Sanborn '21 [1-2]
Eva Ermlich '22 [3-6]		 Jondall Norris '20 [1-2]
Sharon High School Sharon High School Miguel Vonfedak '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Briana Chen '20 [3-4]		 Addison Stead '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Eddie Bielawa '20 [3-4]
Eagles Christopher Anchan '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Krishanu Datta '19 [3-4]		 Jason Yang '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Tyler Vanhelene '19 [3-4]
Staples High School Staples High School No Show No Show
The Wreckers No Show No Show

Conditions — 09/29/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 1020.7 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 61°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.9 kn
avg  ·  max 7.7 kn
Gusts to 16.5 kn
From WNW (287°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1020.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Marthas Vineyard Reg: an underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.09 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Marthas Vineyard Reg by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Marthas Vineyard Reg, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →